IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a>’s IFA considers Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 May.</li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). FMR holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/19.0%.</li>
</ul>



Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)’s IFA considers Mr Tsang’s HK$1.5232 per share offer fair and reasonable. The vote is on 9 May.
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). FMR holds a blocking stake but should be supportive. 
The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for the 10 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 4.3%/19.0%.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): An Attractive Spread Ahead of the Vote on 9 May

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>2024 results is significantly below expectations. While revenue had negative growth, SG&amp;A expenses remain high.Coupled with net fair value losses after tax on investment properties, we saw ugly net profit.</li>
<li>As consumer confidence won't improve in short term, coupled with competition/corporate strategy lag, we adjusted next three-year growth based on 2024 results. This may increase the success rate of privatization.</li>
<li>Reasonable valuation of Goldlion is 9-14x P/E due to short-term headwinds.If performance picks up due to effective expansion in online channels or popular products launched, P/E may improve to 12-15x.</li>
</ul>


2024 results is significantly below expectations. While revenue had negative growth, SG&amp;A expenses remain high.Coupled with net fair value losses after tax on investment properties, we saw ugly net profit.
As consumer confidence won't improve in short term, coupled with competition/corporate strategy lag, we adjusted next three-year growth based on 2024 results. This may increase the success rate of privatization.
Reasonable valuation of Goldlion is 9-14x P/E due to short-term headwinds.If performance picks up due to effective expansion in online channels or popular products launched, P/E may improve to 12-15x.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization - Updates on Valuation Outlook Based on 2024 Results

<ul>
<li>In recent years, Goldlion is facing performance headwinds. Both revenue and net profit have shown a downward trend due to declining consumption, real estate crisis and unfavorable external factors.</li>
<li>In short term, the weak consumer confidence and market momentum are unlikely to improve. Goldlion's performance may gradually pick up in 2026 and 2027 but is still in downward trend.</li>
<li>Considering the low trading liquidity, weak fundamentals, uncertainties on performance brought by Goldlion's potential strategic transformation and  the concerns on the outlook, we think the Cancellation Price is acceptable.</li>
</ul>


In recent years, Goldlion is facing performance headwinds. Both revenue and net profit have shown a downward trend due to declining consumption, real estate crisis and unfavorable external factors.
In short term, the weak consumer confidence and market momentum are unlikely to improve. Goldlion's performance may gradually pick up in 2026 and 2027 but is still in downward trend.
Considering the low trading liquidity, weak fundamentals, uncertainties on performance brought by Goldlion's potential strategic transformation and  the concerns on the outlook, we think the Cancellation Price is acceptable.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) Privatization - The Offer Price Is Acceptable

<ul>
<li>On 17 December, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldlion-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12359:1" rel="noopener">Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)</a> announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November). </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller. </li>
<li>The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.</li>
</ul>


On 17 December, Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) announced a scheme offer from Mr Tsang (Chairman/CEO) at HK$1.5232 per share, a 71.1% premium to the undisturbed price of HK$0.89 (20 November). 
The key condition is the scheme approved by at least 75% disinterested shareholders (&lt;10% disinterested shareholders rejection). The shareholder with a blocking stake is a seller. 
The offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. At the last close and for a late April payment, the gross/annualised spread is 7.3%/22.7%.


Goldlion Holdings (533 HK): Chairman’s Scheme Privatisation Is a Done Deal

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a></strong> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It <em>may</em> trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Hong Kong

Goldlion Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, distributes and manufactures garments and accessories.  The Company also invests in properties and operates a commercial center with restaurants and a business center.

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Goldlion Holdings (533 HK)