Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. </li>
<li>The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. </li>
<li>The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY</li>
</ul>


US banks report weekly balance sheets, and the data is an good gauge for what we can expect during 1Q25 for profit, and especially core income, at least directionally. 
The most recent loan growth data is now even stronger than before, and this is what matters: the weekly data is accelerating. 
The pace of weekly YoY growth now is 2.7% during 1Q25 while this was 2.0% during 1Q24, the second derivative is also improving vastly, now up 33% YoY


US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

<ul>
<li>Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024</li>
<li>The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. </li>
<li>Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.</li>
</ul>


Momentum in weekly HFD for loan growth at US banks is improving, now reaching 3.0% YoY for week 5 March data, a figure not reached since at least early 2024
The growth rate in large time deposits continues to remain incredibly low now at 1.2% YoY in the most recent week - these funds are more expensive than other deposits. 
Loan loss reserves are still much higher than YE19 at 1.59% of loans there is a distinct bottoming and turning over of this ratio - suggesting better credit metrics.


US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Discussion of podcast topics on St. Patrick's Day and credit crisis history</li><li>Analysis of current market trends and performance, including digital assets and tariffs</li><li>Comparison of market patterns from previous years to predict future performance and impact of events like tariffs</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

Discussion of podcast topics on St. Patrick's Day and credit crisis historyAnalysis of current market trends and performance, including digital assets and tariffsComparison of market patterns from previous years to predict future performance and impact of events like tariffsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Bear Stearns, Tariffs, and the Credit Crisis: Lessons from 2008 | The New Barbarians #012

<ul>
<li>The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole</li>
<li>Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically</li>
<li>Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR</li>
</ul>


The most recent loan officer survey release from the Fed shows a very strong outlook for US banks during 1Q25 and likely during FY25 as a whole
Core C&amp;I loan demand is rising sharply in the survey and tightening standards on CRE loans are loosening dramatically
Weekly balance sheet data for US banks shows better delta in loans through 19 Feb week, stagnating LLR, and rising LDR


US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/reliance-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:198:1" rel="noopener">Reliance Industries (RIL IN)</a> faces a $2.81 billion demand in a gas dispute, plans to challenge Delhi High Court ruling in Supreme Court.</li>
<li>Haldiram's stake sale faces delays as market downturn prompts <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/blackstone-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27166:1" rel="noopener">Blackstone (BX US)</a> to exit, citing high valuations; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/temasek-holdings-pte-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28816:1" rel="noopener">Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP)</a> interest continues.</li>
<li>SEBI’s new open interest rules may impact BSE’s trading volumes, prompting <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a> to cut its target price to Rs. 4,880.</li>
</ul>



Reliance Industries (RIL IN) faces a $2.81 billion demand in a gas dispute, plans to challenge Delhi High Court ruling in Supreme Court.
Haldiram's stake sale faces delays as market downturn prompts Blackstone (BX US) to exit, citing high valuations; Temasek Holdings Pte Ltd (TMSK SP) interest continues.
SEBI’s new open interest rules may impact BSE’s trading volumes, prompting Goldman Sachs Group (GS US) to cut its target price to Rs. 4,880.


#113 India Insight: Reliance Fights $2.81B Demand, Haldiram’s Deal Stalls, SEBI Hits BSE Volumes.

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

Bear Stearns, Tariffs, and the Credit Crisis: Lessons from 2008 | The New Barbarians #012

Today's podcast will cover the St. Patrick's Day celebrations, the 17th anniversary of Bear Stearns becoming insolvent, current market trends,...

William Mann

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

#113 India Insight: Reliance Fights $2.81B Demand, Haldiram’s Deal Stalls, SEBI Hits BSE Volumes.

Reliance Industries challenges $2.81 billion gas dispute ruling, Haldiram's stake sale delayed as Blackstone exits, SEBI rules impact BSE trading...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

US Banks - Average YoY Loan Growth During 1Q25 Weeks Is 33% Higher than During Weeks in 1Q24

US banks are seeing stronger loan growth in new weekly data, and growth rate now is far higher than what they saw during 1Q24 weeks. Lowering cash,...

Daniel Tabbush

US Banks - Weekly YoY Loan Growth Hits 3.0% Peak Since Early 2024

US banks weekly HFD on loans is positive, with acceleration to highest rates of growth since at least early FY24. Large time deposits and loan loss...

Daniel Tabbush

Bear Stearns, Tariffs, and the Credit Crisis: Lessons from 2008 | The New Barbarians #012

Today's podcast will cover the St. Patrick's Day celebrations, the 17th anniversary of Bear Stearns becoming insolvent, current market trends,...

William Mann

US Banks - Senior Loan Officer Survey, Weekly B/S Data, Suggest Strong US Bank Profits

Data from the Fed's Senior Loan Officer Survey suggest a strong back drop to US bank earnings, as does granular HFD from weekly balance sheets,...

Daniel Tabbush

#113 India Insight: Reliance Fights $2.81B Demand, Haldiram’s Deal Stalls, SEBI Hits BSE Volumes.

​Reliance Industries challenges $2.81 billion gas dispute ruling, Haldiram's stake sale delayed as Blackstone exits, SEBI rules impact BSE trading...

Sudarshan Bhandari

Reliance Industries challenges $2.81 billion gas dispute ruling, Haldiram's stake sale delayed as Blackstone exits, SEBI rules impact BSE trading...