Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December</li>
<li>Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November</li>
<li>Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income</li>
</ul>


Weekly HFD for large US banks shows a profit-positive picture in latest data through 18 December
Loan growth is accelerating in the week and in the past few weeks, with a steady rise in the pace of growth since late November
Where large US banks are growing loans more aggressively, but seeing more negative growth in higher cost Jumbo Deposits, this can be highly positive for core income


US Banks - Weekly Loans Surge at Large Banks, With -Ve YoY Growth CRE, Jumbo Deposits Down

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bank-ozk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28708:1" rel="noopener">Bank OZK (OZK US)</a> has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24</li>
<li>Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times</li>
<li>The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging - make up in 4Q24?</li>
</ul>



Bank OZK (OZK US) has more CRE loans to total loans of any US bank at 72% in 3Q24
Risks of CRE loans are real now and historically, they have high loss rates, in bad times
The bank is seeing a surge in NPAs , but its credit costs are lagging - make up in 4Q24?


Bank OZK - Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>German government approves financing for TSMC's fab in Dresden, boosting semiconductor production in Europe.</li><li>Kaynes Semi secures anchor customer in power electronics, bolstering its position in the market.</li><li>Suchi Semicon opens Gujarat's first OSAT facility; Google appoints new India head to advance AI technology.</li></ul>

German government approves financing for TSMC's fab in Dresden, boosting semiconductor production in Europe.Kaynes Semi secures anchor customer in power electronics, bolstering its position in the market.Suchi Semicon opens Gujarat's first OSAT facility; Google appoints new India head to advance AI technology.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Dec-2024): German gov funds TSMC's Dresden fab.

<ul>
<li>US large banks are showing sharply expanding loans in recent weeks, in granular HFD</li>
<li>This comes as their higher cost Jumbo Time Deposits are now showing negative growth</li>
<li>There are positive implications for net interest income, NIM and net profit delta of large US banks</li>
</ul>


US large banks are showing sharply expanding loans in recent weeks, in granular HFD
This comes as their higher cost Jumbo Time Deposits are now showing negative growth
There are positive implications for net interest income, NIM and net profit delta of large US banks


US Banks - HFD Shows Sharply Expanding Loans, with Newly Negative Growth in Jumbo Time Deposits

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

<ul><li>If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in US history.</li><li>Sparked by the bankruptcy of FTX, Silvergate was first hit by a bank run before the subsequent panic-induced domino-closure of <strong>three highly reputable banks</strong> - Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), NY based Signature Bank and lastly, First Republic Bank.</li><li>I still vividly remember the day, Peter Thiel “commanded his cronies” to pull their money out of SVB, ASAP; the stock gapped down bigly at opening and the rest is history.</li></ul>

If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in US history.Sparked by the bankruptcy of FTX, Silvergate was first hit by a bank run before the subsequent panic-induced domino-closure of three highly reputable banks - Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), NY based Signature Bank and lastly, First Republic Bank.I still vividly remember the day, Peter Thiel “commanded his cronies” to pull their money out of SVB, ASAP; the stock gapped down bigly at opening and the rest is history.

Thanksgiving musings: What's done extremely well over the last year???

United States

The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., a bank holding company, is a global investment banking and securities firm specializing in investment banking, trading and principal investments, asset management and securities services.  The Company provides services to corporations, financial institutions, governments, and high-net worth individuals.

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Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)

US Banks - Weekly Loans Surge at Large Banks, With -Ve YoY Growth CRE, Jumbo Deposits Down

Weekly HFD data for large US banks is highly positive: loans accelerating, not CRE loans, with less growth in high cost jumbo deposits, and also...

Daniel Tabbush

Bank OZK - Most CRE Loans/Total Loans of Any US Bank & Dramatically Worsening Credit Metrics

Commercial real estate (CRE) loans are risky in the US normally and especially now. Bank OZK is most exposed, with dramatic worsening of credit...

Daniel Tabbush

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (18-Dec-2024): German gov funds TSMC's Dresden fab.

German gov backs TSMC's fab in Dresden, Kaynes Semi gains anchor customer, Suchi Semicon opens OSAT facility in Gujarat, Google appoints new head...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

US Banks - HFD Shows Sharply Expanding Loans, with Newly Negative Growth in Jumbo Time Deposits

US large banks show loans accelerating (but not riskier CRE loans) and with higher cost Jumbo time deposit growth now turning negative in new...

Daniel Tabbush

Thanksgiving musings: What's done extremely well over the last year???

If anyone remembers, in the spring of last year, we had a banking crisis - multiple bank-runs that led to the some of the largest bank failures in...

Acid Investments

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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