New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September.</li><li>The sector is well hedged in the short term, which should cushion the immediate earnings impact, though rates remain a headwind to modest earnings growth forecasts.</li><li>We continue to see attractive value within the sector, trading on 16x 12-month forward AFFO and a 9.0% gross yield (33% taxpayer), a slightly wider premium to bonds than the historical average, and a -26% discount to NTA, though we acknowledge bond rates are firmly in control in the short term.</li></ul>

Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September.The sector is well hedged in the short term, which should cushion the immediate earnings impact, though rates remain a headwind to modest earnings growth forecasts.We continue to see attractive value within the sector, trading on 16x 12-month forward AFFO and a 9.0% gross yield (33% taxpayer), a slightly wider premium to bonds than the historical average, and a -26% discount to NTA, though we acknowledge bond rates are firmly in control in the short term.

Real Estate Reflections: Rising Rates Rule the Roost

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

<ul>
<li>OpenAI, Anthropic and Google released frontier models, while OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra after safety tests and the FTC opened a probe into AI-agent safety.</li>
<li>Anthropic's IPO prospectus showed Q2 revenue of USD 11.5bn, OpenAI sought at least USD 30bn at a USD 1.4tn valuation, and Meta launched an enterprise AI platform.</li>
<li>Amazon explored moving USD 8bn of Nvidia chips into a leaseback vehicle, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for USD 8.2bn, and Firmus priced its ASX IPO.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI, Anthropic and Google released frontier models, while OpenAI cancelled GPT-6.1 Astra after safety tests and the FTC opened a probe into AI-agent safety.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus showed Q2 revenue of USD 11.5bn, OpenAI sought at least USD 30bn at a USD 1.4tn valuation, and Meta launched an enterprise AI platform.
Amazon explored moving USD 8bn of Nvidia chips into a leaseback vehicle, AMD agreed to buy World Labs for USD 8.2bn, and Firmus priced its ASX IPO.


This Week in AI (Sep 27-Oct 3): OpenAI Drops Astra for Sol; Sonnet 5.5 Nears Opus at 1/2 the Price

Smartkarma AI Primers, Smartkarma

αSK Primers

Smartkarma AI Primers

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
  <li>
<a href="https://smartkarma.com/entities/goodman-group">Goodman Group</a> is strategically positioned as a critical enabler of the global digital economy, leveraging its extensive development pipeline to meet the surging demand for data centers driven by AI.</li>
  <li>The company's ability to secure large-scale power capacity in key metropolitan areas creates a significant competitive advantage, allowing it to bypass grid constraints and offer high-value data center sites.</li>
  <li>While growth prospects are robust, the stock trades at a significant premium to peers, making its valuation susceptible to shifts in interest rate expectations or a potential correction in AI-related infrastructure valuations.</li>
</ul><p><em>This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.</em></p>


  
Goodman Group is strategically positioned as a critical enabler of the global digital economy, leveraging its extensive development pipeline to meet the surging demand for data centers driven by AI.
  The company's ability to secure large-scale power capacity in key metropolitan areas creates a significant competitive advantage, allowing it to bypass grid constraints and offer high-value data center sites.
  While growth prospects are robust, the stock trades at a significant premium to peers, making its valuation susceptible to shifts in interest rate expectations or a potential correction in AI-related infrastructure valuations.
This content is AI-generated and displayed for general informational purposes only. Please verify independently before use.

Primer: Goodman Group (GMG AU) - Aug 2026

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

<ul>
<li>KKR has received a substantial $1 billion investment from Samsung to enhance its Helix AI infrastructure strategy.</li>
<li>Goodman has decided to cancel a $560 million data center project in Sydney after gaining approval for a nearby development.</li>
<li>Rava's Dash Living has successfully acquired a Shinjuku apartment tower for $241 million amid various market changes.</li>
</ul>


KKR has received a substantial $1 billion investment from Samsung to enhance its Helix AI infrastructure strategy.
Goodman has decided to cancel a $560 million data center project in Sydney after gaining approval for a nearby development.
Rava's Dash Living has successfully acquired a Shinjuku apartment tower for $241 million amid various market changes.


Asia Real Estate Tracker (30-Sep-2026): KKR secures $1B for Helix AI infrastructure.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-acquisitions/esr-bidders-said-to-weigh-bringing-in-more-investors-for-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

Australia

Goodman Group is an integrated industrial property group. The Group has operations in Australia, New Zealand, UK, Asia and Europe. Goodman's activities include property investment, funds management, property development and property services. The Group's property portfolio includes business parks, industrial estates, office parks and warehouse/distribution centers.

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Goodman Group (GMG AU)

Real Estate Reflections: Rising Rates Rule the Roost

Rising long-term bond yields continued to weigh on sentiment towards NZ listed property in September. The sector is well hedged in the short term,...

Forsyth Barr

This Week in AI (Sep 27-Oct 3): OpenAI Drops Astra for Sol; Sonnet 5.5 Nears Opus at 1/2 the Price

This week in AI: OpenAI scrapped GPT-6.1 Astra and shipped Sol, Anthropic released Sonnet 5.5 at half Opus's price, and Google launched Gemini 4...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Primer: Goodman Group (GMG AU) - Aug 2026

Goodman Group is strategically positioned as a critical enabler of the global digital economy, leveraging its extensive development pipeline to...

αSK Primers

Asia Real Estate Tracker (30-Sep-2026): KKR secures $1B for Helix AI infrastructure.

KKR received a $1B commitment from Samsung for Helix AI, Goodman canceled a $560M Sydney project, CDL targets $7.8B in fund management, and Rava's...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

The probability of an offer remains high, and the latest Bloomberg reports suggest progress towards a binding proposal. Our best guess is that an...

Arun George

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