Founder and CEO, Europacifica Consulting

Naomi Fink

Founder and CEO

Europacifica Consulting

Macroeconomics

<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/009/868/original/Chart2.Australia.Risk_.Pref_.png?1467594254" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="9868"><figcaption class="figcaption">Australians risk-averse? Not today, mate (Source: Europacifica)</figcaption></figure> Speculation that Australia will lose its <a href="http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-the-trafficjam-political-culture-threatening-aaa-credit-rating-20160703-gpxil9" target="_blank">AAA rating</a> due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by <a href="http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/27/george-osborne-to-speak-in-attempt-to-calm-markets-following-bre/" target="_blank">the final downgrade</a> to the UK's own rating, motivated by the recent EU referendum.  Medium-term, the "lucky country" might very well escape the fate of capital flight, given there are many more controversial events (such as US elections) that affect Australia little. Whenever appetite for risk revives…

Australians risk-averse? Not today, mate (Source: Europacifica) Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to the UK's own rating, motivated by the recent EU referendum.  Medium-term, the "lucky country" might very well escape the fate of capital flight, given there are many more controversial events (such as US elections) that affect Australia little. Whenever appetite for risk revives…

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome.  The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of tightening bank credit conditions, some softening recently in credit growth, cooler job vacancies, a stronger AUD, some renewed doubts on China and timing of the 2 July election suggest the RBA needs to be decisive and get ahead of expectations.  Consequently we see further weakness in the AUD and continue to favour gold as we discussed last week outlining risks in China that may spill over to global asset markets and the rebounding JPY that may push the BoJ toward more easing.

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 27th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD36.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, Medibank Private, Macquarie, Technology One, Whitehaven Coal.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Mar 27th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD36.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, Medibank Private, Macquarie, Technology One, Whitehaven Coal.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 27th): Suncorp, Medibank Private, Macquarie, Technology One

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example. &nbsp;Differences in NPL coverage trends, can help frame where banks are in their NPL cycle or how well prepared they are making themselves. Or both.&nbsp;The stand out is China.

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 16th March, published ~9AM on the 20th March.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Industrial REITs". Net shorts increased A$2.3bn week-on-week.
</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goodman-fielder-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:171:1" rel="noopener">Goodman Fielder (GFF AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/woodside-petroleum-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:177:1" rel="noopener">Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tpg-telecom-ltd-5b64c473-761f-4a0a-a7f9-95770efefa20" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30984:1" rel="noopener">TPG Telecom (TPG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/droneshield-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30509:1" rel="noopener">DroneShield Ltd (DRO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/electro-optic-systems-holdin" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20402:1" rel="noopener">Electro Optic Systems Hldg (EOS AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 16th March, published ~9AM on the 20th March.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Industrial REITs". Net shorts increased A$2.3bn week-on-week.

Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: Goodman Fielder (GFF AU), Woodside Petroleum (WPL AU), TPG Telecom (TPG AU), DroneShield Ltd (DRO AU), Electro Optic Systems Hldg (EOS AU).


Aussie Shorts (16th Mar 2026): Goodman Fielder, Woodside Petroleum, TPG Telecom, DroneShield

Australia

Goodman Group is an integrated industrial property group. The Group has operations in Australia, New Zealand, UK, Asia and Europe. Goodman's activities include property investment, funds management, property development and property services. The Group's property portfolio includes business parks, industrial estates, office parks and warehouse/distribution centers.

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Goodman Group (GMG AU)

Australia a Risk Haven? Not Today, Mate

Speculation that Australia will lose its AAA rating due to political deadlock at the polls has probably been enhanced by the final downgrade to...

Naomi Fink

AmpGFX - RBA Cut the Obvious Decision

We think the case is clear for the RBA to cut rates tomorrow and are predicting this outcome. The much lower core inflation reading, evidence of...

Greg Gibbs

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Mar 27th): Suncorp, Medibank Private, Macquarie, Technology One

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Suncorp, Medibank Private, Macquarie, Technology...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Beware of NPL Coverage Trends Across Asia

Do not be lulled by a false sense of security with high NPL coverage. The figures can decline quickly and China is the quintessential example....

Daniel Tabbush

Aussie Shorts (16th Mar 2026): Goodman Fielder, Woodside Petroleum, TPG Telecom, DroneShield

The largest industry net increase in the past week was into "Diversified Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was out of "Industrial REITs"....

David Blennerhassett

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