Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Graco Inc. reported second quarter fiscal 2026 results with record sales of $591 million, marking a 3% increase from the prior year.</li><li>Growth was seen across all three business segments—Contractor, Industrial, and Expansion Markets—supported by improved customer activity and operational efficiency.</li><li>Organic orders rose by 5% during the quarter, with backlog up 28% year-to-date excluding acquisitions.</li></ul>

Graco Inc. reported second quarter fiscal 2026 results with record sales of $591 million, marking a 3% increase from the prior year.Growth was seen across all three business segments—Contractor, Industrial, and Expansion Markets—supported by improved customer activity and operational efficiency.Organic orders rose by 5% during the quarter, with backlog up 28% year-to-date excluding acquisitions.

Graco Inc.’s $591 Million Record Quarter — Is A Bigger Breakout Coming?

<ul><li>Graco has moved to deepen its Industrial segment with a definitive agreement to acquire Valco Melton for $447 million in cash, a price that includes the present value of roughly $40 million in expected tax benefits and represents about 14x Valco Melton’s 2025 EBITDA.</li><li>The transaction, expected to close in Graco’s fiscal third quarter subject to customary conditions, would add a business that generated approximately $145 million of revenue in 2025, employs around 650 people, and serves customers in more than 80 countries.</li><li>The timing is notable because Graco’s first-quarter 2026 results showed uneven organic demand, with total sales up 2% but organic revenue down 6%, while bookings and backlog improved meaningfully in Industrial.</li></ul>

Graco has moved to deepen its Industrial segment with a definitive agreement to acquire Valco Melton for $447 million in cash, a price that includes the present value of roughly $40 million in expected tax benefits and represents about 14x Valco Melton’s 2025 EBITDA.The transaction, expected to close in Graco’s fiscal third quarter subject to customary conditions, would add a business that generated approximately $145 million of revenue in 2025, employs around 650 people, and serves customers in more than 80 countries.The timing is notable because Graco’s first-quarter 2026 results showed uneven organic demand, with total sales up 2% but organic revenue down 6%, while bookings and backlog improved meaningfully in Industrial.

Graco Buyout Move: The $447M Deal That Could Reshape Its Future!

<ul><li>Graco Inc. reported a 5% increase in third-quarter sales, totaling $543 million, compared to the same period last year.</li><li>This growth was driven by a 6% contribution from acquisitions, while currency translation added 1%.</li><li>However, organic sales saw a 2% decline.</li></ul>

Graco Inc. reported a 5% increase in third-quarter sales, totaling $543 million, compared to the same period last year.This growth was driven by a 6% contribution from acquisitions, while currency translation added 1%.However, organic sales saw a 2% decline.

Graco Inc.: How the “One Graco” Initiative Is Rewiring the Business—Inside the Efficiency Play Driving Margin Upside!

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average / Technical Analysis

Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU INDEX)

<ul>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. </li>
<li>As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we <em><strong>cannot be bearish</strong></em>if the SPX is above 4165-4200</li>
<li>Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.</li>
</ul>


The S&amp;P 500 has marginally surpassed the 4300-4325 area which we have anticipated would cap upside for 2023. 
As noted in our 6/6/23 Compass, we are vigilant at these levels given we expect inflation to remain elevated, but we cannot be bearishif the SPX is above 4165-4200
Breadth has continued to improve within the Russell 2000, and the $IWM is approaching our first target of $190 following the breakout above $180. Also see breadth improving within SPX.


Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

<ul>
<li>In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.</li>
<li>We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.</li>
<li>The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.</li>
</ul>


In last week's Compass (July 26) we discussed positive signals that we believe suggested the lows for this bear market may have already been established, or that downside is limited.
We continue to see more evidence that supports this claim; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral.
The SPX is reversing topside its 4-month downtrend, and the Russell 2000 (IWM), Russell Micro-Caps (IWC), and Russell 2000Growth (IWO) are each reversing topside their 9-month downtrends; the bottom's in.


S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

United States

Graco Inc. supplies technology for the management of fluids in both industrial and commercial applications.  The Company designs, manufactures, and markets systems to move, measure, control, dispense, and apply fluid materials.  Graco's products are used for applying paints and coatings, high-pressure cleaning of equipment, and lubricating and maintaining vehicles and other equipment.

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Graco Inc (GGG US)

Graco Inc.’s $591 Million Record Quarter — Is A Bigger Breakout Coming?

Graco Inc. reported second quarter fiscal 2026 results with record sales of $591 million, marking a 3% increase from the prior year. Growth was...

Baptista Research

Graco Buyout Move: The $447M Deal That Could Reshape Its Future!

Graco has moved to deepen its Industrial segment with a definitive agreement to acquire Valco Melton for $447 million in cash, a price that...

Baptista Research

Graco Inc.: How the “One Graco” Initiative Is Rewiring the Business—Inside the Efficiency Play Driving Margin Upside!

Graco Inc. reported a 5% increase in third-quarter sales, totaling $543 million, compared to the same period last year. This growth was driven by...

Baptista Research

Dow Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 Ahead of FOMC; Buy Ideas Within Manufacturing/Industrials

Dow $DJI Testing 1-Year Resistance at 34,280 ahead of FOMC. Breadth continues to improve within the Russell 2000 $IWM, and breadth improving within...

Vermilion Research

S&P 500 Reverses 4-Month Downtrend; Upgrading Consumer Discretionary to Market Weight

We continue to see more evidence suggesting the lows are in; as a result, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. 4-month downtrend reversal for...

Vermilion Research

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