Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>GRAIL suddenly became one of healthcare’s most closely watched stocks after its shares surged nearly 34% to $107.97 on September 21, following FDA briefing documents that raised investor expectations ahead of a September 23 advisory committee review of Galleri.</li><li>The blood test searches for cancer-associated DNA methylation patterns and is designed to detect signals from more than 50 types of cancer using a single blood draw, while also predicting where a detected signal may have originated.</li><li>FDA reviewers reportedly raised no major outstanding concerns around analytical performance, study design, or primary safety, although the agency is asking outside experts to consider whether Galleri’s performance supports calling it an “early detection” test.</li></ul>

GRAIL suddenly became one of healthcare’s most closely watched stocks after its shares surged nearly 34% to $107.97 on September 21, following FDA briefing documents that raised investor expectations ahead of a September 23 advisory committee review of Galleri.The blood test searches for cancer-associated DNA methylation patterns and is designed to detect signals from more than 50 types of cancer using a single blood draw, while also predicting where a detected signal may have originated.FDA reviewers reportedly raised no major outstanding concerns around analytical performance, study design, or primary safety, although the agency is asking outside experts to consider whether Galleri’s performance supports calling it an “early detection” test.

Grail Stock Rockets 34%—But Can Its Cancer Test Live Up To The Hype?

<ul><li>Shares of Grail were cut in half after the company disclosed top-line results from its landmark NHS-Galleri trial in the U.K., a randomized study designed to determine whether its multi-cancer early detection blood test could reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses at population scale.</li><li>Investors had hoped the study would show a statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and Stage IV cancers, the trial’s primary endpoint.</li><li>Instead, while Stage IV cancers declined meaningfully, the combined Stage III/IV reduction did not reach statistical significance.</li></ul>

Shares of Grail were cut in half after the company disclosed top-line results from its landmark NHS-Galleri trial in the U.K., a randomized study designed to determine whether its multi-cancer early detection blood test could reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses at population scale.Investors had hoped the study would show a statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and Stage IV cancers, the trial’s primary endpoint.Instead, while Stage IV cancers declined meaningfully, the combined Stage III/IV reduction did not reach statistical significance.

Grail’s Dramatic Drop: Timing Problem Or Broken Thesis?

<ul><li>Shares of Grail collapsed more than 50% in a single session despite the company reporting a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and reaffirming its 2026 revenue outlook of 22%–32% growth.</li><li>The trigger was not the income statement, but the top-line results from its 142,000-patient U.K. NHS-Galleri randomized trial.</li><li>While the Galleri multi-cancer early detection test demonstrated a greater than 20% reduction in Stage IV cancers in later screening rounds and a fourfold increase in overall cancer detection compared with standard of care, the study failed to meet its primary endpoint of a statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and IV cancers.</li></ul>

Shares of Grail collapsed more than 50% in a single session despite the company reporting a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and reaffirming its 2026 revenue outlook of 22%–32% growth.The trigger was not the income statement, but the top-line results from its 142,000-patient U.K. NHS-Galleri randomized trial.While the Galleri multi-cancer early detection test demonstrated a greater than 20% reduction in Stage IV cancers in later screening rounds and a fourfold increase in overall cancer detection compared with standard of care, the study failed to meet its primary endpoint of a statistically significant reduction in combined Stage III and IV cancers.

Grail Stock Crashes 50% After Trial Miss—Is The Cancer Bet Broken?

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

<ul>
<li>With an in-line 3Q’FY25 revenue, the next major catalyst for GRAIL Inc. is the Galleri PMA submission to FDA, which is expected to occur in 1Q’FY26.  </li>
<li>The #1 MCED screening test maker has guided to cash burn of &lt;$290M for FY25 and the company’s cash position of $850M+ provides runway into 2030.</li>
<li>Despite Galleri’s early stage, I view GRAIL Inc. as a very high quality company, which is a clear leader in MCED testing market in the United States.</li>
</ul>


With an in-line 3Q’FY25 revenue, the next major catalyst for GRAIL Inc. is the Galleri PMA submission to FDA, which is expected to occur in 1Q’FY26.  
The #1 MCED screening test maker has guided to cash burn of &lt;$290M for FY25 and the company’s cash position of $850M+ provides runway into 2030.
Despite Galleri’s early stage, I view GRAIL Inc. as a very high quality company, which is a clear leader in MCED testing market in the United States.


GRAIL Inc. (GRAL.US): 3Q’FY25 Revenue In Line; Galleri PMA Submission To FDA Approaches

<ul>
<li>GRAIL Inc., a healthcare company whose mission is to detect cancer early when it can be cured, announced detailed results from its registrational PATHFINDER 2 study.</li>
<li>Samsung C&amp;T and Samsung Electronics also made a ~$110M equity investment in GRAIL at a price of $70.05 per share of common stock.</li>
<li>I expect GRAIL shares to outperform the market as solid performance from its Galleri test continues and investors are confident that the first MCED test will receive FDA approval.</li>
</ul>


GRAIL Inc., a healthcare company whose mission is to detect cancer early when it can be cured, announced detailed results from its registrational PATHFINDER 2 study.
Samsung C&amp;T and Samsung Electronics also made a ~$110M equity investment in GRAIL at a price of $70.05 per share of common stock.
I expect GRAIL shares to outperform the market as solid performance from its Galleri test continues and investors are confident that the first MCED test will receive FDA approval.


GRAIL: PATHFINDER 2 Results Were Impressive, Samsung C&T/Samsung Electronics Made Equity Investment

United States

GRAIL, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on combining science, technology, and clinical studies to reveal cancer at its beginings. GRAIL offers its services in the United States.

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GRAIL (GRAL US)

Grail Stock Rockets 34%—But Can Its Cancer Test Live Up To The Hype?

GRAIL suddenly became one of healthcare’s most closely watched stocks after its shares surged nearly 34% to $107.97 on September 21, following FDA...

Baptista Research

Grail’s Dramatic Drop: Timing Problem Or Broken Thesis?

Shares of Grail were cut in half after the company disclosed top-line results from its landmark NHS-Galleri trial in the U.K., a randomized study...

Baptista Research

Grail Stock Crashes 50% After Trial Miss—Is The Cancer Bet Broken?

Shares of Grail collapsed more than 50% in a single session despite the company reporting a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and...

Baptista Research

GRAIL Inc. (GRAL.US): 3Q’FY25 Revenue In Line; Galleri PMA Submission To FDA Approaches

GRAIL Inc. anticipates FDA submission for Galleri in 1Q’FY26, with strong cash position and leadership in MCED testing market in the United States.

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: PATHFINDER 2 Results Were Impressive, Samsung C&T/Samsung Electronics Made Equity Investment

Healthcare company GRAIL Inc. released impressive results from PATHFINDER 2 study. In my insight, I discuss key highlights of the study, private...

Andrei Zakharov

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Grail Stock Rockets 34%—But Can Its Cancer Test Live Up To The Hype?

GRAIL suddenly became one of healthcare’s most closely watched stocks after its shares surged nearly 34% to $107.97 on September 21, following FDA...

Baptista Research

Grail’s Dramatic Drop: Timing Problem Or Broken Thesis?

Shares of Grail were cut in half after the company disclosed top-line results from its landmark NHS-Galleri trial in the U.K., a randomized study...

Baptista Research

Grail Stock Crashes 50% After Trial Miss—Is The Cancer Bet Broken?

Shares of Grail collapsed more than 50% in a single session despite the company reporting a narrower-than-expected fourth-quarter loss and...

Baptista Research

GRAIL Inc. (GRAL.US): 3Q’FY25 Revenue In Line; Galleri PMA Submission To FDA Approaches

​GRAIL Inc. anticipates FDA submission for Galleri in 1Q’FY26, with strong cash position and leadership in MCED testing market in the United States.

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: PATHFINDER 2 Results Were Impressive, Samsung C&T/Samsung Electronics Made Equity Investment

​Healthcare company GRAIL Inc. released impressive results from PATHFINDER 2 study. In my insight, I discuss key highlights of the study, private...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL Inc. anticipates FDA submission for Galleri in 1Q’FY26, with strong cash position and leadership in MCED testing market in the United States.

Healthcare company GRAIL Inc. released impressive results from PATHFINDER 2 study. In my insight, I discuss key highlights of the study, private...