Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>GRAIL shares outperformed the market in 2025 with shares up ~168% year-to-date vs. a modest ~3% gain on the Nasdaq Composite.</li>
<li>Most notably, management disclosed that Quest Diagnostics and TRICARE Health Insurance expanded their relationships with GRAIL.</li>
<li>A fast-growing healthcare company reported FY24 revenues of ~$126M, up ~35% year-over-year, and ended 4Q’FY24 with ~$767M of cash and cash equivalents.</li>
</ul>


GRAIL shares outperformed the market in 2025 with shares up ~168% year-to-date vs. a modest ~3% gain on the Nasdaq Composite.
Most notably, management disclosed that Quest Diagnostics and TRICARE Health Insurance expanded their relationships with GRAIL.
A fast-growing healthcare company reported FY24 revenues of ~$126M, up ~35% year-over-year, and ended 4Q’FY24 with ~$767M of cash and cash equivalents.


GRAIL’s 4Q’FY24 Financial Results: The Company Is On Track To Complete FDA/PMA Submission In FY26

<ul>
<li>I expect GRAIL shares will appreciate over time as investors gain greater conviction in one of the most meaningful opportunities in healthcare.</li>
<li>A fast-growing maker of MCED screening tests reported ~46% sales growth of Galleri tests in 2024. Commercial Galleri sales surpassed 250K tests since launch.</li>
<li>At ~0.5x EV/2025E revenues, GRAIL shares trade at a significant discount to Guardant Health and Tempus AI. GRAIL shares appreciated ˃100% from October 4, 2024.</li>
</ul>


I expect GRAIL shares will appreciate over time as investors gain greater conviction in one of the most meaningful opportunities in healthcare.
A fast-growing maker of MCED screening tests reported ~46% sales growth of Galleri tests in 2024. Commercial Galleri sales surpassed 250K tests since launch.
At ~0.5x EV/2025E revenues, GRAIL shares trade at a significant discount to Guardant Health and Tempus AI. GRAIL shares appreciated ˃100% from October 4, 2024.


GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance

<ul>
<li>GRAIL, a commercial-stage healthcare company and maker of MCED blood test called Galleri, reported its quarterly results for the first time as independent publicly traded company.</li>
<li>The 2Q print was solid, with +43% y/y revenue growth, ~35,200 Galleri tests sold and ~$32M total revenue all better than expected.</li>
<li>Finally, management expects moderate revenue growth rates in 2025 and subsequent years due to cost reductions and decreasing investment in other programs beyond Galleri.</li>
</ul>


GRAIL, a commercial-stage healthcare company and maker of MCED blood test called Galleri, reported its quarterly results for the first time as independent publicly traded company.
The 2Q print was solid, with +43% y/y revenue growth, ~35,200 Galleri tests sold and ~$32M total revenue all better than expected.
Finally, management expects moderate revenue growth rates in 2025 and subsequent years due to cost reductions and decreasing investment in other programs beyond Galleri.


GRAIL: Focus on MCED Tests, New Restructuring Plan and Solid 2Q Print With +43% Y/Y Revenue Growth

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In June of 2024, GRAIL, a market leader in early cancer detection, spun off from Illumina into an independent publicly traded company.</li>
<li>Following the spin-off, Illumina retains up to ~15% ownership interest in GRAIL and continues to fund GRAIL’s operations and R&amp;D with disposal funding of ~$974M.</li>
<li>I view GRAIL as a market leader in the MCED testing market and uniquely positioned to be very effective in detecting some of the most aggressive early-stage cancers.</li>
</ul>


In June of 2024, GRAIL, a market leader in early cancer detection, spun off from Illumina into an independent publicly traded company.
Following the spin-off, Illumina retains up to ~15% ownership interest in GRAIL and continues to fund GRAIL’s operations and R&amp;D with disposal funding of ~$974M.
I view GRAIL as a market leader in the MCED testing market and uniquely positioned to be very effective in detecting some of the most aggressive early-stage cancers.


GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.</li>
<li>We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).</li>
<li>Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.</li>
</ul>


A weak 20-year note auction last Wednesday sparked the first semi-meaningful pullback since this lockout rally began April 22nd, when we turned short-term bullish (4/22/25Compass) as SPX was testing 5100-5120.
We will be watching the 10- and 30-year Treasury yields closely, as both are approaching important resistance levels (more on that below).
Unsurprisingly, SPX only tested short-term gap support on the pullback at 5700-5785, where we said to expect support in last week's Compass (5/20/25). Expect this gap support to hold.


Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

United States

GRAIL, Inc. operates as a biotechnology company. The Company focuses on combining science, technology, and clinical studies to reveal cancer at its beginings. GRAIL offers its services in the United States.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GRAIL (GRAL US)

GRAIL’s 4Q’FY24 Financial Results: The Company Is On Track To Complete FDA/PMA Submission In FY26

In my insight, I discuss GRAIL’s 4Q’FY24 financial results, outline key revenue growth drivers and update my financial model.

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Significant Sales Growth of Galleri Test and The Increase in 2025 Revenue Guidance

GRAIL shares have materially outperformed Nasdaq and peers. The stock has bottomed in the low $13s and gained more than 100%. I see further room...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Focus on MCED Tests, New Restructuring Plan and Solid 2Q Print With +43% Y/Y Revenue Growth

GRAIL reported solid 2Q results as a public company. Revenue growth accelerated and the company ended 2Q’FY24 with ~$959M of cash and cash...

Andrei Zakharov

GRAIL: Detecting Early-Stage Cancers With Galleri Test, A Significant Market Opportunity

GRAIL, a fast-growing Galleri test maker, spun off from Illumina in June. The population-scale MCED screening test identifies 50+ types of cancer...

Andrei Zakharov

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary (XLY) To Overweight; 5700-5785 SPX Gap Support Holding as Expected

Upgrading Consumer Discretionary $XLY to Overweight; 5700-5785 $SPX Gap Support Holding as we expected/discussed last week. 4.7-4.8% on 10y...

Vermilion Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)