Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of ASX 200 in the past month.</li>
<li>We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.</li>
<li>We highlighted EPS revision on Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, GQG Partners Inc DRC, Austal, Telix Pharmaceuticals.</li>
</ul>


We analysed the earning revision of component stocks of ASX 200 in the past month.
We tabulated stocks with the top impact on index's EPS, stocks' EPS revision, and revenue revision.
We highlighted EPS revision on Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, GQG Partners Inc DRC, Austal, Telix Pharmaceuticals.


ASX 200 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, Austal

Index Rebal/Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal/Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we present our expectations for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the December 2026 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We expect one change for ASX 100 and six changes for ASX 200. We do not see any changes for ASX 20 and ASX 50.</li>
<li>There could also be intra-review index changes over the next few months. By our current measure, those will be quite big in dollar terms and ADV impact.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we present our expectations for ASX 200, 100, 50, and 20 for the December 2026 index rebal event.
We expect one change for ASX 100 and six changes for ASX 200. We do not see any changes for ASX 20 and ASX 50.
There could also be intra-review index changes over the next few months. By our current measure, those will be quite big in dollar terms and ADV impact.


Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec26: Multiple Changes During the Rebal + Some Intra-Review Changes

<ul>
<li>ASX 200 rebalance will be effective on 21 Sep 2026 before market open, with 5 ADDs and 5 DELETEs.</li>
<li>Four of the five ADDs gained over the bridge window, led by Sunrise Energy Metals at +28.1%. Tuas was the only DELETE to gain.</li>
<li>Historically, ADDs with a positive bridge were evenly split between first-week gains and losses. DELETEs mostly fell in the first implementation week after either bridge direction.</li>
</ul>


ASX 200 rebalance will be effective on 21 Sep 2026 before market open, with 5 ADDs and 5 DELETEs.
Four of the five ADDs gained over the bridge window, led by Sunrise Energy Metals at +28.1%. Tuas was the only DELETE to gain.
Historically, ADDs with a positive bridge were evenly split between first-week gains and losses. DELETEs mostly fell in the first implementation week after either bridge direction.


ASX 200 Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>Among index adds, we see large flows in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/eq-resources-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14984:1" rel="noopener">EQ Resources (EQR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/codan-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6189:1" rel="noopener">Codan (CDA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sunrise-energy-metals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11810:1" rel="noopener">Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/core-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14712:1" rel="noopener">Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Among index deletes, the largest flows are in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evolution-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18363:1" rel="noopener">Evolution Mining (EVN AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cochlear-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:918:1" rel="noopener">Cochlear (COH AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/graincorp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18531:1" rel="noopener">Graincorp (GNC AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amalgamated-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20978:1" rel="noopener">Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU)</a>. </li>
</ul>


Multiple index families rebalance at the close today, driving huge flows across Australian stocks. Estimates indicate over A$5bn to trade from passive trackers.
Among index adds, we see large flows in EQ Resources (EQR AU), Codan (CDA AU), Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL AU) and Core Lithium Ltd (CXO AU). 
Among index deletes, the largest flows are in Evolution Mining (EVN AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Cochlear (COH AU), Graincorp (GNC AU) and Event Hospitality and Entertainment (EVT AU). 


Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 7th September, published on the 11th September.</li>
<li>The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts iincreased A$1bn week-on-week.</li>
<li>Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/commonwealth-bank-of-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14:1" rel="noopener">CBA (CBA AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rio-tinto-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13:1" rel="noopener">Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/westpac-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:444:1" rel="noopener">Westpac Banking (WBC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/national-australia-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15:1" rel="noopener">National Australia Bank (NAB AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Australia's ASIC releases the aggregated short position data four business days after the reporting day. Data in this insight is up to 7th September, published on the 11th September.
The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified Metals". Net shorts iincreased A$1bn week-on-week.
Companies mentioned in this regular weekly report include: CBA (CBA AU), Rio Tinto Ltd (RIO AU), Westpac Banking (WBC AU), Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), and National Australia Bank (NAB AU).


Aussie Shorts [7 Sep 2026]: CBA, Rio Tinto, Westpac, Sigma Healthcare, NAB, Energy Fuels, PDI Gold

Australia

GrainCorp Limited operates as a food ingredients and agribusiness company. The Company processes and distributes wheat, barley, and canola, as well as offers a range of malt products and service to brewers and distillers. GrainCorp also supplies and refines edible oils. GrainCorp serves customers worldwide.*Dummy ticker for index membership mapping

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Graincorp Ltd A (GNC AU)

ASX 200 Index Earning Revision (Sep): Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, Austal

We analyzed ASX 200's consensus for Sep 2026 and highlighted changes of EPS in Evolution Mining, Woodside Energy, BHP, Santos, GQG Partners Inc...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Dec26: Multiple Changes During the Rebal + Some Intra-Review Changes

Although we currently see zero changes for ASX 50, there are multiple potential DELs close to the deletion border. If they underperform other...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

ASX 200 Sep 2026 Index Rebalance: Pre-Implementation Update

S&P/ASX 200 enters implementation on 21 Sep 2026. We update post-announcement stock performance and discuss implementation trades.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Australia: A$5bn+ to Trade at the Close Today Across Local & Global Indices

Multiple index families rebalance in Oz at the close today. Estimated passive trading is A$5bn+. Shorts have built up in a lot of stocks and there...

Brian Freitas

Aussie Shorts [7 Sep 2026]: CBA, Rio Tinto, Westpac, Sigma Healthcare, NAB, Energy Fuels, PDI Gold

The largest industry net increase in the past week was A$1.1bn into "Banks"; the largest industry net decrease was A$0.3bn out of "Diversified...

David Blennerhassett

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