Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.</li>
<li>Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16</li>
<li>We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology</li>
</ul>


In our October 26, 2023 Int'l Compass we discussed our expectations for a bounce in global equities (MSCI ACWI). So far, that has been the low.
Then, in our November 2, 2023 report, we discussed the bullish implications of the false breakdown in MSCI ACWI (local currency), before discussing expectations for a year-end rally on Nov.16
We see a massive opportunity in global gold/silver miners with gold nearing multi-year breakout. Also buy opportunities: Utilities in Europe, UK, and India; Materials, Industrials, Transportation, Real Estate, and Technology


Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>An interview with Deepak Parekh set a bunch of stocks on fire. Then came the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> exchange announcement that said the dates were still tentative.</li>
<li>Indications are that the merger could be effective 1 July and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a>'s last trading day would be 13 July.</li>
<li>The merger will have an impact on both HDFC stocks and on other stocks that could be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nse-nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">NIFTYJR INDEX</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">SENSEX Index</a>.</li>
</ul>


An interview with Deepak Parekh set a bunch of stocks on fire. Then came the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) exchange announcement that said the dates were still tentative.
Indications are that the merger could be effective 1 July and HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)'s last trading day would be 13 July.
The merger will have an impact on both HDFC stocks and on other stocks that could be added to the NIFTY Index, NIFTYJR INDEX and SENSEX Index.


HDFC/​​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

<ul>
<li>Media reports indicate that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hdfc-bank-ltd-4b6b7a92-9087-468d-9dbe-ab169e77f014" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:558:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN)</a> merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/housing-development-finance" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:252:1" rel="noopener">HDFC Limited (HDFC IN)</a> is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks.</li>
<li>There will be inclusions to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23617:1" rel="noopener">NIFTY Index</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-next-50-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36053:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Next 50 Index</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-bse-sensex-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31494:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index </a>and capping changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nifty-bank-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26811:1" rel="noopener">Nifty Bank Index</a> apart from changes to global indices.</li>
<li>While the impact on the merging entities is not big, there will be fairly large flows on some stocks that are index inclusions or affected by capping changes.</li>
</ul>


Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) merger with HDFC Limited (HDFC IN) is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks.
There will be inclusions to the NIFTY Index, Nifty Next 50 Index and S&amp;P BSE SENSEX Index and capping changes to the Nifty Bank Index apart from changes to global indices.
While the impact on the merging entities is not big, there will be fairly large flows on some stocks that are index inclusions or affected by capping changes.


HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist, Trudence Capital Advisors

Pranav Bhavsar

Consumer Analyst / Channel Surveillance Specialist

Trudence Capital Advisors

Trudence Capital Advisors Private Limited is a SEBI-registered Research Analyst, holding SEBI registration number INH000015747. Our firm is dedicated to providing independent and unbiased research on Indian mid to large-cap companies. Trudence Capital is known for its counter-consensus views, with a focus on forensic research and on-ground primary investigations. Our research approach is thorough, involving detailed analysis of accounting practices and governance, alongside extensive channel checks.

Independent & Unbiased Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-paints-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6354:1" rel="noopener">Asian Paints (APNT IN)</a> reported flat year-over-year volumes and flat sales in domestic decorative paints in 3Q FY23. The company's gross margin recovery is aligned with easing raw material prices.  </li>
<li>The company attributed the rough quarter to a heavy base from last year's price increases and a prolonged monsoon, which impacted October volumes.</li>
<li>We believe that the volumes are lower than what has been reported.  Increasing competition could challenge APNT's premium valuation.</li>
</ul>



Asian Paints (APNT IN) reported flat year-over-year volumes and flat sales in domestic decorative paints in 3Q FY23. The company's gross margin recovery is aligned with easing raw material prices.  
The company attributed the rough quarter to a heavy base from last year's price increases and a prolonged monsoon, which impacted October volumes.
We believe that the volumes are lower than what has been reported.  Increasing competition could challenge APNT's premium valuation.


Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Masking Growth Concerns

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited

Motilal Oswal Financial Services Limited is an Indian diversified financial services firm offering a range of financial products and services. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><ul><li>VSF segment’s performance below our estimate; Chemical in line</li></ul><div><ul><li>Margins under pressure in VSF; improve in the Chemical segment</li></ul><div><ul><li>Highlights from the management commentary - <span style="font-size: var(--content-font-size);">Investments in the Paint business would now be at INR100b, 2x of the earlier plan.</span></li></ul></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

VSF segment’s performance below our estimate; Chemical in lineMargins under pressure in VSF; improve in the Chemical segmentHighlights from the management commentary - Investments in the Paint business would now be at INR100b, 2x of the earlier plan.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Grasim - Weak Quarter; Capex in Paints to Be 2x of the Earlier Plan

India

Grasim Industries Limited is a diversified operating company and part of the Aditya Birla group. The group manufactures a wide range of products, including Viscose Staple Fiber(VSF), cement, chemicals and textiles.

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Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN)

Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

The HDFC/HDFCB merger could complete in 2-3 weeks. This will set off changes to a bunch of indices and impact a bunch of stocks. We look at the...

Brian Freitas

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank merger with HDFC Ltd is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks. There will be ad hoc inclusions to the...

Brian Freitas

Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Masking Growth Concerns

We believe that the volumes for Asian Paints are slower than what has been reported. Increasing competition could also challenge Asian Paint's...

Pranav Bhavsar

Grasim - Weak Quarter; Capex in Paints to Be 2x of the Earlier Plan

Grasim’s 4QFY22 result was significantly below our estimates with EBITDA at INR7.5b (v/s estimated INR9.1b) and OPM at 11.8% (v/s estimated 14.2%).

Motilal Oswal

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Bullish Outlook Intact; Upgrading Brazil to Overweight; Buying Global Gold/Silver Miners + More Buys

Our bullish outlook on global equities $ACWI remains intact. We are also upgrading Brazil $EWZ to overweight. We continue to expect a rally into...

Vermilion Research

HDFC/​​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

The HDFC/HDFCB merger could complete in 2-3 weeks. This will set off changes to a bunch of indices and impact a bunch of stocks. We look at the...

Brian Freitas

HDFC/​​​​​HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications

Media reports indicate that the HDFC Bank merger with HDFC Ltd is expected to complete in 4-5 weeks. There will be ad hoc inclusions to the...

Brian Freitas

Asian Paints (APNT IN) | Masking Growth Concerns

We believe that the volumes for Asian Paints are slower than what has been reported. Increasing competition could also challenge Asian Paint's...

Pranav Bhavsar

Grasim - Weak Quarter; Capex in Paints to Be 2x of the Earlier Plan

Grasim’s 4QFY22 result was significantly below our estimates with EBITDA at INR7.5b (v/s estimated INR9.1b) and OPM at 11.8% (v/s estimated 14.2%).

Motilal Oswal

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger: Are We There Yet?

HDFC/HDFC Bank Mega Merger Expected to Complete in a Few Weeks: Index Implications