Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>AH spreads are slightly narrower. BANKS, INSURERS, BROKERS, INDUSTRIALS, PHARMA and UTILITIES see significant H-share outperformance vs their A pairs. TECH, CONSUMER, ENERGY mixed to worse.</li>
<li>Ongoing skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium &lt;20% saw H outperform sharply but those with H Premia contracted. Quiddity Portfolio alpha trending strongly.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


AH spreads are slightly narrower. BANKS, INSURERS, BROKERS, INDUSTRIALS, PHARMA and UTILITIES see significant H-share outperformance vs their A pairs. TECH, CONSUMER, ENERGY mixed to worse.
Ongoing skew on H-vs-A performance this week. Those trading AH Premium &lt;20% saw H outperform sharply but those with H Premia contracted. Quiddity Portfolio alpha trending strongly.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 June 2025):  Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below US$12bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly US$700mm a day, which was decent.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20. Again.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back below US$12bn a day this past week, but net buying was nearly US$700mm a day, which was decent.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is CONSUMER and INFO TECH dominating the top 20. Again.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor  and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 May 2025); Volumes OK, Big Net Buying on SOEs/Financials

<ul>
<li>A week after the State Council issued "Several Opinions" (关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》), the CSRC <a href="http://www.csrc.gov.cn/csrc/c100028/c7474875/content.shtml" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> Friday five capital market cooperation measures with HK Connect. The goals are to increase cross-border investor flows.</li>
<li>They include: a broader range of ETFs in Connect, including REITs in both directions, include RMB counters in Southbound, improve mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>RMB Dual Counters Southbound-eligible will take time. They have some homework, but it is on the "To Do" list "as soon as possible and smoothly." Watch impact on H/A Pairs.</li>
</ul>


A week after the State Council issued "Several Opinions" (关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》), the CSRC announced Friday five capital market cooperation measures with HK Connect. The goals are to increase cross-border investor flows.
They include: a broader range of ETFs in Connect, including REITs in both directions, include RMB counters in Southbound, improve mutual recognition of funds, increasing China IPOs in Hong Kong.
RMB Dual Counters Southbound-eligible will take time. They have some homework, but it is on the "To Do" list "as soon as possible and smoothly." Watch impact on H/A Pairs.


RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming - This Changes AH Relationships

<ul>
<li>The Somewhat-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.</li>
<li>We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.</li>
<li>The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.</li>
</ul>


The Somewhat-Brand-Spanking New (10 weeks old) A-H Monitor has tables, charts, measures galore to track A/H premium positioning, southbound and northbound positioning/volatility in pairs over time, etc.
We used to do it. We brought it back better, with lots of cool interactive tables, and charts, heat maps, and comparative data. And 50 Trade Recommendations.
The last 10wks (since the start of the new Tracker and Portfolio 11 weeks ago) have seen net portfolio performance of +0.50%, +1.35%, +0.14%, +0.47%, +0.15%, +0.12%, -0.29%, -0.71%, -68%.


Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US)</a> at the close of trading on 19 December.</li>
<li>Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI INDEX</a> add at the close tomorrow.</li>
<li>The HA premiums for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)</a> dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.</li>
</ul>


As forecast, there will be 3 constituent changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI US) at the close of trading on 19 December.
Two of the inclusions will also have inflows from the FGlobal Index at the same time, while the third is an HSCEI INDEX add at the close tomorrow.
The HA premiums for CATL (3750 HK) and Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK) dropped prior to lock-up expiry and there could be a short-term premium expansion closer to index/ETF inclusion.


FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

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Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 6 June 2025): Narrow Premia Hs Worst Performers, BYD Relents

H outperformance vs A continues and higher H discounts see H outperform more within the liquid universe. Sector bias in spread performance is...

Travis Lundy

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 30 May 2025); Volumes OK, Big Net Buying on SOEs/Financials

Lots more news between the US and China this week. Most of it on the US side. Within China-specific news, the government reaction to lower auto...

Travis Lundy

RMB Dual Counter Trading Is Coming - This Changes AH Relationships

1 year+ after the CSRC said it was working towards expanding HKD RMB dual counter trading in HK, making RMB counters eligible, last month through...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker (To Oct20): Volatility Up Further, Wide Spreads Even Wider. Messy²

The Quiddity A/H Premium Tracker. Tables, Charts, Flows, Positions (both SB and NB). This week was AGAIN messy. Pairwise volatility is up. universe...

Travis Lundy

FXI Rebalance: 3 Changes as H/A Premium Trades Back in Focus

There are 3 changes for the FXI in Dec. 2 adds will also be added to a global index at the same time while the other is an HSCEI add at the close...

Brian Freitas

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