Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>This week it is changed from H/A Discount to A/H Premium, by popular demand. Some Northbound data is added. We kept the unicorn.</li>
<li>Last week saw a win/loss ratio of 21:13. Average recommended pair on the week earned 0.9% if Sunday recos executed Monday close, 1.35% if executed Monday VWAP. </li>
<li>6 Unwinds and 3 new trades recommended this week. As always, feedback desired to make this even better.</li>
</ul>


This week it is changed from H/A Discount to A/H Premium, by popular demand. Some Northbound data is added. We kept the unicorn.
Last week saw a win/loss ratio of 21:13. Average recommended pair on the week earned 0.9% if Sunday recos executed Monday close, 1.35% if executed Monday VWAP. 
6 Unwinds and 3 new trades recommended this week. As always, feedback desired to make this even better.


Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We summarize the Jul 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.</li><li>New orders per store for these six NEV brands have been rising MoM since Apr 2023, which is consistent with our prior argument that NEV market share in China could rise sequentially for the remainder of the year. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jul 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15- 18 stores for each brand) in 15 major cities in China.New orders per store for these six NEV brands have been rising MoM since Apr 2023, which is consistent with our prior argument that NEV market share in China could rise sequentially for the remainder of the year. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jul leading indicators: NEV new orders rose MoM

<ul><li>We summarize the Jul 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.</li><li>Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jun 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jul retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Jul 2023 price discounts at dealers for major automakers in this report.Note that such discounts for each automaker are calculated based on weighted average of Jun 2023 retail sales volume for each model, as Jul retail sales volume data have not been released yet.Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jul discount: Chinese narrowed, foreign widened

<ul><li>Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1 Aug 2023.</li><li>Sales volume of the nine automakers combined rose 67% YoY (ranged from -28% to +228%) and 6% MoM (ranged from -17% to +91%) in Jul 2023.</li><li>NEV trio all beat our expectation by 1,000-2,000 units. Li Auto recorded a sales volume of more than 34,000 units in Jul 2023, stronger than our previous forecast.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1 Aug 2023.Sales volume of the nine automakers combined rose 67% YoY (ranged from -28% to +228%) and 6% MoM (ranged from -17% to +91%) in Jul 2023.NEV trio all beat our expectation by 1,000-2,000 units. Li Auto recorded a sales volume of more than 34,000 units in Jul 2023, stronger than our previous forecast.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

China Auto Sector – Jul NEV: All-time high sales for seven brands

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 28th based on HKEx daily reports.</li>
<li>In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Dexin Ser (2215 HK), Deewin (2418 HK).</li>
<li>In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).</li>
</ul>


We analyze statistics on top repurchases over one week, one month, one quarter and one year periods ended on Jul 28th based on HKEx daily reports.
In the past 7 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were AIA (1299 HK), Dexin Ser (2215 HK), Deewin (2418 HK).
In the past 30 days, the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares from the market were Tencent (700 HK), AIA (1299 HK), Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK).


Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 28th): Aia, Dexin Ser, Deewin

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and develops, and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs.

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Great Wall Motor (2333 HK)

Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor 🦄 (As of 25 Aug 2023)

The new Quiddity A/H Premium Monitor (this week in A/H Premium rather than H/A Discount), now with Southbound AND Northbound flows. Last week was...

Travis Lundy

China Auto Sector – Jul leading indicators: NEV new orders rose MoM

We summarize the Jul 2023 leading indicators as below, including number of leads, customer flows, and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Jul discount: Chinese narrowed, foreign widened

Discounts at dealers for most Chinese brands narrowed MoM in Jul 2023, consistent with our prior argument that discounts may peak around Jun-Jul 2023.

CMB International

China Auto Sector – Jul NEV: All-time high sales for seven brands

Nine Chinese automakers including BYD, Great Wall Motor, NIO, Xpeng, Li Auto, Zeekr, Aion, Neta and Leap reported their Jul 2023 sales volumes on 1...

CMB International

Hong Kong Buybacks Weekly (Jul 28th): Aia, Dexin Ser, Deewin

We analyzed the Hong Kong buyback data in the past week and highlight the top 3 companies that repurchased the most shares were AIA (1299 HK),...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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