Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Third week in a row with declining participation in the rally.</li>
<li>Information technology the hottest sector with all names up more than double digits, all but 2 stocks closing at a 52-week high and median implied vols at 96th percentile.</li>
<li>Single Stock option volume registers the two highest days in the last 3 months but Call trading as a percentage of the total slipped week over week.</li>
</ul>


Third week in a row with declining participation in the rally.
Information technology the hottest sector with all names up more than double digits, all but 2 stocks closing at a 52-week high and median implied vols at 96th percentile.
Single Stock option volume registers the two highest days in the last 3 months but Call trading as a percentage of the total slipped week over week.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 02 – 07): Rally Narrows, Info Tech Hot

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.</li><li>Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.</li><li>Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 97.3% as of Dec 27th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by -3.2ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Southern Air, Guolian Securities, GWM, SMIC, Pharmaron, ZTE, Tigermed.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 150 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 97.3% as of Dec 27th.
The average A-H premium changed by -3.2ppt week-on-week, led by consumer staples, information technology, real estate.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for China Southern Air, Guolian Securities, GWM, SMIC, Pharmaron, ZTE, Tigermed.


A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 27th): China Southern Air, Guolian Securities, GWM, SMIC, Pharmaron, ZTE

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 20% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK remain weak.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a> was again the top buy and EV names <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xpeng-inc-4cc65854-d10c-4d20-bf7e-ca0e016715ff" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33772:1" rel="noopener">XPeng (9868 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/byd-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20962:1" rel="noopener">BYD (1211 HK)</a> were bought, but tech as a whole was sold.</li>
<li>I continue to expect HK-listed tech to see ongoing buying. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. </li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND gross trading activity rebounded about 20% this week vs the previous week. Net buying was a little lower but still strong. Market volumes overall in HK remain weak.

Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK) was again the top buy and EV names XPeng (9868 HK) and BYD (1211 HK) were bought, but tech as a whole was sold.
I continue to expect HK-listed tech to see ongoing buying. Alibaba, Tencent, Xiaomi, etc are safe havens against Trump tariffs as they don't compete in the US. 


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

China

Great Wall Motor Company Limited, through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells pick-up trucks and sport-utility vehicles (SUVs) in China under branded names. The Company also researches and manufactures principal automotive parts and components for use in the assembly of pick-up trucks and SUVs. Great Wall Motor conducts business in China, USA, Japan, Canada, Korea, and other regions.

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Great Wall Motor (601633 CH)

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly (February 02 – 07): Rally Narrows, Info Tech Hot

Participation declines for the third consecutive week, with information technology sector leading the charge. Single stock option volume surges,...

John Ley

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

A-H Premium Weekly (Dec 27th): China Southern Air, Guolian Securities, GWM, SMIC, Pharmaron, ZTE

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for China Southern Air, Guolian Securities, GWM, SMIC,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 Dec 2024); SB Trading Volumes Up, US/China Trade Volleys Up Too

Connect SOUTHBOUND volumes were +20%wow, Net buying continued though tech flows slower. Markets up. China first retaliation in trade is...

Travis Lundy

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