HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Event-Driven

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 10th national VBP released results. The average price reduction was about 70%. CSPC, Kelun, Fosun Pharma, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sino-biopharmaceutical" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:230:1" rel="noopener">Sino Biopharmaceutical </a>are the "main force" and their performance would be affected.</li>
<li>WuXi Shares surge due to the absence of BIOSECURE Act from the proposed amendments to US NDAA. However, the rally could be short-term as the Bill may return next year.</li>
<li>Pre-Conditions of Newjf have been smooth so far. We think investors can directly consider Newjf's Offer. Based on the current situation, we are optimistic that Newjf will finally be successful.</li>
</ul>


The 10th national VBP released results. The average price reduction was about 70%. CSPC, Kelun, Fosun Pharma, Sino Biopharmaceutical are the "main force" and their performance would be affected.
WuXi Shares surge due to the absence of BIOSECURE Act from the proposed amendments to US NDAA. However, the rally could be short-term as the Bill may return next year.
Pre-Conditions of Newjf have been smooth so far. We think investors can directly consider Newjf's Offer. Based on the current situation, we are optimistic that Newjf will finally be successful.


China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15) - 10th VBP Results, WuXi Shares Surge, Newjf Will Be Successful

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paragon-reit" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5994:1" rel="noopener">Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)</a> and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.</li>
<li>The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.</li>
<li>Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.</li>
</ul>


Cuscaden Peak, the sponsor of Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP) and 61.5% shareholder, has offered S$0.98/unit, in cash; or S$1.003/unit, a 7% premium to NAV, when including FY24's S$0.0233/unit cash distribution.
The Offer is by way of a Scheme. The Offer price has NOT been declared final. A switch option into a voluntary Offer is afforded should a competing Offer emerge.
Looks pretty clean. Assuming mid-late May payment, pay up to S$0.97/share for a 4%/15% gross/annualised spread. It may trade tighter given the early distribution payment.


Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

<ul>
<li>I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fancl-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15862:1" rel="noopener">Fancl (4921 JP)</a>'s Tender offer, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/a8-new-media-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3444:1" rel="noopener">A8 New Media (800 HK)</a>'s Scheme, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jeisys-medical-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36766:1" rel="noopener">Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)</a>'s delisting offer. Bain also approached <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bapcor-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8433:1" rel="noopener">Bapcor (BAP AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alumina-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:939:1" rel="noopener">Alumina (AWC AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/greatview-aseptic-packaging" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10802:1" rel="noopener">Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helios-techno-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13934:1" rel="noopener">Helios Techno (6927 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tatsuta-electric-wire-cable-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12509:1" rel="noopener">Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 50 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals discussed this week: Fancl (4921 JP)'s Tender offer, A8 New Media (800 HK)'s Scheme, and Jeisys Medical (287410 KS)'s delisting offer. Bain also approached Bapcor (BAP AU).
Key updates took place on: Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Alumina (AWC AU), Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK), Helios Techno (6927 JP), and Tatsuta Electric Wire &amp; Cable (5809 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

<ul>
<li>They are rumours doing the rounds that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP)</a> could see potential inflow from a free float upweight in the MSCI May review.</li>
<li>The inflow is reportedly predicated on a reassessment of the 59% stake held in Matheson by the privatised <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-strategic-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15081:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)</a>, that was subsequently cancelled in May 2022.</li>
<li>Elsewhere, Matheson's NAV discount is toward the wide end of its one-year range. </li>
</ul>


They are rumours doing the rounds that Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) could see potential inflow from a free float upweight in the MSCI May review.
The inflow is reportedly predicated on a reassessment of the 59% stake held in Matheson by the privatised Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP), that was subsequently cancelled in May 2022.
Elsewhere, Matheson's NAV discount is toward the wide end of its one-year range. 


Equity Bottom-Up

Greatview Aseptic Packaging / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>All Pre-Conditions of Newjf’s Offer have been satisfied. Based on Offer Document, the latest date for posting of the Response Document is Jan.7, 2025. First Closing Date is Jan.21, 2025.</li>
<li>Newjf will make every effort to complete the acquisition and regain the control of international business so as to protect shareholders’ interests.So, the logic behind the deal is very solid.</li>
<li>Mengniu's attitude could be positive. A higher management offer seems more out of reach because the management lacks sincerity. We advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.</li>
</ul>


All Pre-Conditions of Newjf’s Offer have been satisfied. Based on Offer Document, the latest date for posting of the Response Document is Jan.7, 2025. First Closing Date is Jan.21, 2025.
Newjf will make every effort to complete the acquisition and regain the control of international business so as to protect shareholders’ interests.So, the logic behind the deal is very solid.
Mengniu's attitude could be positive. A higher management offer seems more out of reach because the management lacks sincerity. We advise investors not to walk away from Newjf’s Offer easily.


Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468.HK) Update - Newjf’s Offer Should Be Prioritized

China

Greatview Aseptic Packaging Company Limited is an integrated provider of aseptic packaging and related services. The Company also provides customers with a range of support services with respect to standard roll-fed filling machines, which include training and on-site technical assistance, as well as spare parts.

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Greatview Aseptic Packaging (468 HK)

China Healthcare Weekly (Dec.15) - 10th VBP Results, WuXi Shares Surge, Newjf Will Be Successful

10th national VBP results show 70% price reduction. WuXi shares surge without BIOSECURE Act in US NDAA amendments, but rally may be short...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Paragon REIT (PGNREIT SP)'s Privatisation Offer

Looks pretty clean. A 7% premium to NAV and a roughly two-year high. If payment on or around late May, I'd pay up to S$0.97/share for a gross...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Fancl, Jeisys Medical, A8 New Media, Bapcor, Helios Techno,Tatsuta Electric

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Jardine Matheson: MSCI Upweight Musings

Some readers place a 50% probability of an MSCI upweight. Of more interest is Matheson's ongoing buyback program. They have recently, and...

David Blennerhassett