HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>While the 1H25 IPOs have gained an average of 38% YTD, their average share price change has been only 6.3% MTD.</li>
<li>"Rising Suns" stocks are interesting: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-drinda-new-energy-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45252:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (2865 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pegbio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40924:1" rel="noopener">PegBio (2565 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/caocao-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42803:1" rel="noopener">CaoCao (2643 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/anhui-conch-material-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45012:1" rel="noopener">Anhui Conch Material Technology (2560 HK)</a>.  </li>
<li>"Real Treasures" stocks are safe bets: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/duality-biotherapeutics-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43878:1" rel="noopener">Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/unisound-ai-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36800:1" rel="noopener">Unisound AI Tech. (9678 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-pharmaceuticals-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:44224:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nanshan-aluminium-international-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43976:1" rel="noopener">Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


While the 1H25 IPOs have gained an average of 38% YTD, their average share price change has been only 6.3% MTD.
"Rising Suns" stocks are interesting: Hainan Drinda New Energy Technology (2865 HK), PegBio (2565 HK), CaoCao (2643 HK), and Anhui Conch Material Technology (2560 HK).  
"Real Treasures" stocks are safe bets: Duality Biotherapeutics (9606 HK), Unisound AI Tech. (9678 HK), CATL (3750 HK), Jiangsu Hengrui (1276 HK), and Nanshan Aluminium (2610 HK). 


HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Big Catering International Holding / Equity Capital Markets

Big Catering International Holding (BCI HK)

<ul>
<li>The advantage of Big Catering lies in its differentiated Buffet model, but its disadvantage is "heavy asset" model, which results in significant lagging behind in cost control and expansion speed.</li>
<li>The core of low net profit margin stems from the rigid pressure of cost structure.If Big Catering wants to expand southward, it will face intense competition and high education costs.</li>
<li>Big Catering has very limited room for downward adjustment in its pricing strategy. Valuation would be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domino-s-pizza-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6436:1" rel="noopener">Domino's Pizza</a>, but higher than that of traditional restaurants with slow growth.</li>
</ul>


The advantage of Big Catering lies in its differentiated Buffet model, but its disadvantage is "heavy asset" model, which results in significant lagging behind in cost control and expansion speed.
The core of low net profit margin stems from the rigid pressure of cost structure.If Big Catering wants to expand southward, it will face intense competition and high education costs.
Big Catering has very limited room for downward adjustment in its pricing strategy. Valuation would be lower than Domino's Pizza, but higher than that of traditional restaurants with slow growth.


Pre-IPO Big Catering International Holding - The Business Model, the Pain Points and the Outlook

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Contemporary Amperex Technology / Equity Capital Markets

Contemporary Amperex Technology (3750 HK)

<ul>
<li>We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals from the Jan to Nov 2025 listing cohort to measure price action around the IPO+6M lock-up expiry.</li>
<li>We note that selling pressure from cornerstone selling overhang is deal-size dependent.</li>
<li>Sponsor mix further refines the screen. Pure international-sponsored deals underperformed other cohorts.</li>
</ul>


We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals from the Jan to Nov 2025 listing cohort to measure price action around the IPO+6M lock-up expiry.
We note that selling pressure from cornerstone selling overhang is deal-size dependent.
Sponsor mix further refines the screen. Pure international-sponsored deals underperformed other cohorts.


HK IPO Essential Statistics: Quantifying Lock-Up Expiry Overhang

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.</li>
<li>On the IPO front, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technolog" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24404:1" rel="noopener">Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jiangsu-hengrui-medicine-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14128:1" rel="noopener">Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH)</a> will remain in the spotlight in the coming week as well.</li>
<li>On the placements front, Japan deals appear to be picking up again.</li>
</ul>


Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.
On the IPO front, Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750 CH) and Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276 CH) will remain in the spotlight in the coming week as well.
On the placements front, Japan deals appear to be picking up again.


ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM

<ul>
<li>The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it. </li>
<li>The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.</li>
<li>The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average</li>
</ul>


The decline in Green Tea’s performance in 2024 cannot be solely attributed to external factors such as economic downturn and the decline in consumption. There are deeper reasons behind it. 
The growth is mainly contributed by delivery service. However, commission fee is high and average spending per order is lower than dine-in services.So delivery service has limited contribution to profits.
The aggressive expansion of restaurants may further dilute the performance of individual restaurant. We shared our three-year forecast.Valuation of Green Tea could be lower than Xiaocaiyuan and the industry average


Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

China

Green Tea Group Limited operates a chain of casual Chinese restaurants, offering fusion cuisine under brands like Green Tea, Mang Gang Le, and LongJing, alongside food delivery and ancillary services. The company focuses on providing accessible dining experiences inspired by Chinese traditional culture. It was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Green Tea Group (6831 HK)

HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pre-IPO Big Catering International Holding - The Business Model, the Pain Points and the Outlook

Big Catering's Buffet model offers differentiation, but heavy asset model leads to cost control issues and slow expansion, limited pricing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK IPO Essential Statistics: Quantifying Lock-Up Expiry Overhang

HK IPO Essential Stat: We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals listed in 2025 to quantify the selling pressure upon lock-up expiry.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The IPO pricing is attractive, but this could be the only advantage. As analyzed, Green Tea''s growth is hindered and its fundamentals are weak....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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HK Strategy: Finding the Gems in 1H25 HK IPOs

​1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pre-IPO Big Catering International Holding - The Business Model, the Pain Points and the Outlook

​Big Catering's Buffet model offers differentiation, but heavy asset model leads to cost control issues and slow expansion, limited pricing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

HK IPO Essential Statistics: Quantifying Lock-Up Expiry Overhang

HK IPO Essential Stat: We studied 43 HK IPO cornerstone deals listed in 2025 to quantify the selling pressure upon lock-up expiry.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

ECM Weekly (19 May 2025) - CATL, Hengrui, Green Tea, SMPP, Unisound, Renesas, Genda, GMO, PayTM

Aequitas Research's weekly update on the IPOs, placements, lockup expiry and other ECM linked events that were covered by the team over the past week.

Sumeet Singh

Pre-IPO Green Tea Group (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The IPO pricing is attractive, but this could be the only advantage. As analyzed, Green Tea''s growth is hindered and its fundamentals are weak....

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

1H25 IPOs have seen a YTD average gain of 38%, but only 6.3% MTD. "Rising Suns" like Hainan Drinda New Energy, PegBio, CaoCao Inc., and Anhui...

Big Catering's Buffet model offers differentiation, but heavy asset model leads to cost control issues and slow expansion, limited pricing...