Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation than FY22. We look for more of the same in FY24, which will be a significant year from a capital investment perspective, and beyond.

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the challenging external environment. Unlike many consumer-facing companies, high selling price inflation was accompanied by volume growth, leading to good market share gains. The consumer is responding well to new initiatives to grow revenue in new dayparts and digital channels. Profitability was well-managed with better recovery of input cost inflation than FY22. We look for more of the same in FY24, which will be a significant year from a capital investment perspective, and beyond.

Concise Notes to Myself about Companies I Own, Notes To Self

Notes To Self

Concise Notes to Myself about Companies I Own

Notes To Self is a space for me to write… notes to myself… about companies I own in a concise manner. These will not be blow-by-blows; I will only document what I find insightful. The format will be brief, and assume prior knowledge of the company if someone happens to read it. No deep dives, just commentary from a shareholder’s perspective.

<ul><li>On March 5th, Greggs followed up the January trading update to release the remainder of its FY23 results.</li><li>The Jan trading update showed that revenues of £1.81 billion grew +20% in the year, with a healthy +13.7% like-for-like sales1 comp.</li><li>We also learned that the business opened 145 net new shops, bringing the total to 2,473 (+6%), surpassed its 500th franchise store, and expanded delivery across partners UberEats and JustEat. </li></ul>

On March 5th, Greggs followed up the January trading update to release the remainder of its FY23 results.The Jan trading update showed that revenues of £1.81 billion grew +20% in the year, with a healthy +13.7% like-for-like sales1 comp.We also learned that the business opened 145 net new shops, bringing the total to 2,473 (+6%), surpassed its 500th franchise store, and expanded delivery across partners UberEats and JustEat. 

Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was still playing catch-up to the prior and ongoing rapid increases in input costs.

Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its profit expectations for the year. GRG’s strong revenue growth and an improved profit performance in FY23 means it has fared better than many other consumer-facing names during the year. With lower inflationary pressures, the company enters FY24 in a better place with respect to its selling price versus cost inflation than at the start of FY23, when it was still playing catch-up to the prior and ongoing rapid increases in input costs.

United Kingdom

Greggs plc retails sandwiches, savories, and other bakery-related products. The Company focuses on takeaway food and catering.

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Greggs PLC (GRG LN)

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Greggs - Encouraging start to FY24

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Showing us how it's done

The second full year of Greggs’ five-year growth plan to double revenue by FY26 should be marked down as very successful, especially so given the...

Edison Investment Research

GRG: Half Way There

The Jan trading update showed that revenues of £1.81 billion grew +20% in the year, with a healthy +13.7% like-for-like sales1 comp.

Notes To Self

Greggs - A strong finish to FY23

Greggs (GRG) enjoyed a stronger-than-expected end to FY23 with sales ahead of our estimates and consensus forecasts, enabling GRG to meet its...

Edison Investment Research

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