Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Greggs has reported that FY24 profit is in line with management’s expectation despite the more challenging environment and slowing sales growth through H224. The more challenging market means that management is more cautious about the outlook for H125 than previously. With space expansion and recovery of cost inflation, it expects to deliver profit growth in FY25 albeit lower than previously anticipated. We have reduced our FY25 profit before tax estimate by c 2%.

Greggs has reported that FY24 profit is in line with management’s expectation despite the more challenging environment and slowing sales growth through H224. The more challenging market means that management is more cautious about the outlook for H125 than previously. With space expansion and recovery of cost inflation, it expects to deliver profit growth in FY25 albeit lower than previously anticipated. We have reduced our FY25 profit before tax estimate by c 2%.

Greggs - More challenging environment in H224

Greggs demonstrated continued strong sales growth in Q324, against a challenging Q323 comparative. The company continues to benefit from its multipronged growth strategy of increasing space, extended trading hours, new digital channels and menu development. Management is confident of meeting its full year expectations, helped by marginally lower cost inflation than previously expected.

Greggs demonstrated continued strong sales growth in Q324, against a challenging Q323 comparative. The company continues to benefit from its multipronged growth strategy of increasing space, extended trading hours, new digital channels and menu development. Management is confident of meeting its full year expectations, helped by marginally lower cost inflation than previously expected.

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

TSE Tokyo Price Index TOPIX / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).</li>
<li>We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.</li>
<li>Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."</li>
</ul>


We continue to believe a 1-4-month pullback/consolidation is ongoing. Important supports have been violated, including $110 on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and $41 on MSCI EM (EEM-US).
We're shifting our outlook to neutral on $ACWI after being bullish since early-November 2023. Major price breakdowns combined with deteriorating market dynamics have increased the odds of a topping pattern.
Also downgrading Japan to market weight. 7/25/24 we said "Japan's TOPIX breaking below 2800-2815 is near-term bearish, suggests it could pull back to its long-term uptrend, or worse."


Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Greggs’ H124 results demonstrate the ongoing benefits of its multiple levers to drive revenue growth as well as a pleasant surprise on operating margin. With a relatively normal environment for input cost inflation, management is optimistic about the outlook for the year. We have marginally increased our profit estimates, which has also fed through to an increase in our valuation.

Greggs’ H124 results demonstrate the ongoing benefits of its multiple levers to drive revenue growth as well as a pleasant surprise on operating margin. With a relatively normal environment for input cost inflation, management is optimistic about the outlook for the year. We have marginally increased our profit estimates, which has also fed through to an increase in our valuation.

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of growing space, delivery and evening sales and leveraging the app along with its continuous menu enhancements, despite what has continued to be a challenging backdrop for consumers. The strong revenue growth on top of a tough comparative from the prior year includes both volume and price growth, which compares very well versus many other consumer-facing companies.

United Kingdom

Greggs plc retails sandwiches, savories, and other bakery-related products. The Company focuses on takeaway food and catering.

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Greggs PLC (GRG LN)

Greggs - More challenging environment in H224

Greggs has reported that FY24 profit is in line with management’s expectation despite the more challenging environment and slowing sales growth...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Good Q324 on strong comparative

Greggs demonstrated continued strong sales growth in Q324, against a challenging Q323 comparative. The company continues to benefit from its...

Edison Investment Research

Downgrading Japan; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI to Neutral

Downgrading Japan TOPIX, Nikkei; Stay Defensive; Downgrading Outlook on Global Equities $ACWI $EEM to Neutral; Many Risk-Off Signals increase odds...

Vermilion Research

Greggs - Confident about FY24 outlook

Greggs’ H124 results demonstrate the ongoing benefits of its multiple levers to drive revenue growth as well as a pleasant surprise on operating...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Encouraging start to FY24

Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year shows that the company is driving superior revenue growth from its key initiatives of...

Edison Investment Research

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