Leading International Investment Research, Edison Investment Research

Edison Investment Research

Leading International Investment Research

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.

Equity Bottom-Up

Greggs’ strong sales performance in the first 19 weeks of the year is in line with management’s expectations and therefore its profit expectations for the year are unchanged, as are our forecasts. Greggs continues to benefit from underlying volume growth despite the squeeze on household budgets and high industry-wide selling price inflation, which is testament to its ongoing product innovation and initiatives to drive growth. Our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of £30.50/share is unchanged.

Greggs’ strong sales performance in the first 19 weeks of the year is in line with management’s expectations and therefore its profit expectations for the year are unchanged, as are our forecasts. Greggs continues to benefit from underlying volume growth despite the squeeze on household budgets and high industry-wide selling price inflation, which is testament to its ongoing product innovation and initiatives to drive growth. Our discounted cash flow (DCF)-based valuation of £30.50/share is unchanged.

Greggs - Continuation of strong trading in FY23

Greggs has entered the second full financial year of its five-year growth plan having exceeded our initial FY22 revenue estimates, helped by elevated external inflationary pressures, and with profit in line with management’s expectations. Despite the more challenging external environment, Greggs made good progress with the majority of its revenue growth initiatives in FY22. Following the expected normalisation of the cost base, which hampered profit growth in FY22, we forecast more consistent pre-tax profit growth in FY23–25 (three-year CAGR of 11%) relative to sales growth (12% CAGR).

Greggs has entered the second full financial year of its five-year growth plan having exceeded our initial FY22 revenue estimates, helped by elevated external inflationary pressures, and with profit in line with management’s expectations. Despite the more challenging external environment, Greggs made good progress with the majority of its revenue growth initiatives in FY22. Following the expected normalisation of the cost base, which hampered profit growth in FY22, we forecast more consistent pre-tax profit growth in FY23–25 (three-year CAGR of 11%) relative to sales growth (12% CAGR).

Greggs reported a strong acceleration in revenue growth in Q422 as revenue from new initiatives, digital and evening trading complemented anticipated space growth and underlying growth. Value leadership continues to support volume growth and the company’s ability to pass on inflationary cost pressures. As Greggs enters the second full year of its five-year strategy, FY23 profit growth is expected to improve as newer initiatives mature, and following the suppression of FY22 profit by internal investment, cost inflation and the return of some costs to the income statement post the initial COVID outbreak. We trim our FY23 and FY24 estimates by 3%, primarily due to higher-than-expected cost inflation.

Greggs reported a strong acceleration in revenue growth in Q422 as revenue from new initiatives, digital and evening trading complemented anticipated space growth and underlying growth. Value leadership continues to support volume growth and the company’s ability to pass on inflationary cost pressures. As Greggs enters the second full year of its five-year strategy, FY23 profit growth is expected to improve as newer initiatives mature, and following the suppression of FY22 profit by internal investment, cost inflation and the return of some costs to the income statement post the initial COVID outbreak. We trim our FY23 and FY24 estimates by 3%, primarily due to higher-than-expected cost inflation. 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.</li>
<li>As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.</li>
<li>As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The bear market rally we have discussed since our Sept. 29 Int'l Compass has managed to surpass our price targets, which were the YTD downtrends on the ACWX-US and EFA-US.
As you will see below, many countries are reversing topside their 6.5-month to YTD downtrends.
As a result of these bullish reversals and breakdowns on the US dollar (DXY) and 10-year Treasury yield, we are upgrading our outlook to neutral. Buy on pullbacks.


Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

Greggs’ impressive sales performance in Q322 enabled it to maintain its FY22 PBT guidance, despite the increasing pressures on consumer discretionary income and (maintained) input cost inflation. Growth is driven by momentum in its own initiatives, eg menu innovation and trading in new channels and dayparts, which is helping Greggs to gain market share. Our DCF-based valuation of £29.70/share is unchanged.

Greggs’ impressive sales performance in Q322 enabled it to maintain its FY22 PBT guidance, despite the increasing pressures on consumer discretionary income and (maintained) input cost inflation. Growth is driven by momentum in its own initiatives, eg menu innovation and trading in new channels and dayparts, which is helping Greggs to gain market share. Our DCF-based valuation of £29.70/share is unchanged.

United Kingdom

Greggs plc retails sandwiches, savories, and other bakery-related products. The Company focuses on takeaway food and catering.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Greggs PLC (GRG LN)

Greggs - Continuation of strong trading in FY23

Greggs’ strong sales performance in the first 19 weeks of the year is in line with management’s expectations and therefore its profit expectations...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Profits on the go

Greggs has entered the second full financial year of its five-year growth plan having exceeded our initial FY22 revenue estimates, helped by...

Edison Investment Research

Greggs - Eye-catching revenue growth

Greggs reported a strong acceleration in revenue growth in Q422 as revenue from new initiatives, digital and evening trading complemented...

Edison Investment Research

Positive Character Changes; MSCI ACWI Ex-US, EAFE, STOXX 50, Countless Others Reversing Downtrends

MSCI ACWI ex-US $ACWX and EAFE $EFA reversing their YTD downtrends, with countless other countries doing the same. This is a clear character...

Vermilion Research

Greggs - A ‘relative winner’

Greggs’ impressive sales performance in Q322 enabled it to maintain its FY22 PBT guidance, despite the increasing pressures on consumer...

Edison Investment Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)