European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>2025 delivered dispersion without repricing: median dual-class spreads remained stable while cross-sectional dispersion widened, driven by a small number of structural outliers.</li>
<li>Liquidity and structure dominated outcomes: convergence worked episodically where economics were identical, while ownership concentration and borrow constraints overwhelmed valuation in select names.</li>
<li>Opportunities persist into 2026: tradable convergence remains viable in liquid pairs, while structural anomalies continue to define dispersion risk rather than governance fundamentals.</li>
</ul>


2025 delivered dispersion without repricing: median dual-class spreads remained stable while cross-sectional dispersion widened, driven by a small number of structural outliers.
Liquidity and structure dominated outcomes: convergence worked episodically where economics were identical, while ownership concentration and borrow constraints overwhelmed valuation in select names.
Opportunities persist into 2026: tradable convergence remains viable in liquid pairs, while structural anomalies continue to define dispersion risk rather than governance fundamentals.


2025 in Review: Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares

<ul>
<li>Since mid-May, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening. </li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has tightened to 50.8%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal.). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-May, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening. 
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has tightened to 50.8%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal.). 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.</li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A is at irrational highs (54.2%); the discount of Grifols B has tightened (Brookfield is again knocking at the door). 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.</li>
<li>The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

<ul>
<li>Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.</li>
<li>Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.</li>
<li>Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.</li>
</ul>


Brookfield has renewed takeover interest in Grifols after a failed bid, signaling confidence in the company’s turnaround and prompting investor speculation about a significantly improved future offer.
Grifols’ financial position has strengthened with a 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA, €504 million in free cash flow, and strategic refinancing, reducing the likelihood of a capital increase and supporting shareholder value.
Grifols B shares trade at a 21.6% discount to A shares, offering an attractive convergence opportunity, as bylaws mandate equal treatment in the event of a public acquisition offer.


Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

Spain

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

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Grifols (GRFS US)

2025 in Review: Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares

2025 saw dispersion without repricing in Europe’s dual-class stocks: a stable median hid sharp, liquidity-driven divergences, with convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '25 Report

Since mid-May, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

2025 in Review: Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares

2025 saw dispersion without repricing in Europe’s dual-class stocks: a stable median hid sharp, liquidity-driven divergences, with convergence...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '25 Report

Since mid-May, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: May '25 Report

Since mid-April, share price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Blood, Sweat, and Bids: Grifols Draws Renewed Interest from Brookfield

​Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Brookfield's renewed interest in Grifols signals confidence in its turnaround, with strengthened financials and potential for improved future...