European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Median discount tightened from -1.1% to -0.5%, but the mean widened to -3.7%, as several already-large discounts moved further away from parity.</li>
<li>Carlsberg was the largest widener at -18.8%, while Grifols reached -33.3% and MFE -28.3%, improving prospective returns from convergence trades.</li>
<li>Grifols and MFE stand out among new positions, while Ericsson’s B-only SEK15bn buyback remains the most relevant active capital-structure development.</li>
</ul>


Median discount tightened from -1.1% to -0.5%, but the mean widened to -3.7%, as several already-large discounts moved further away from parity.
Carlsberg was the largest widener at -18.8%, while Grifols reached -33.3% and MFE -28.3%, improving prospective returns from convergence trades.
Grifols and MFE stand out among new positions, while Ericsson’s B-only SEK15bn buyback remains the most relevant active capital-structure development.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

<ul>
<li>Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.</li>
<li>Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.</li>
<li>Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.</li>
</ul>


Mid-August saw renewed dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe. Handelsbanken tightened sharply, but widening in Fuchs, Sixt, Media-for-Europe and Danieli pushed the mean spread further negative.
Convergence remained highly selective: Carlsberg and Handelsbanken retraced materially, while several previously wide discounts moved in the opposite direction.
Grifols shareholders have authorised cancellation of treasury A and B shares, while Schindler has expanded its dual-class buyback programme to CHF700m.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

<ul>
<li>Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.</li>
<li>Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.</li>
<li>BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.</li>
</ul>


Mid-July saw aggregate dispersion widen across Europe’s liquid dual-class universe. Median and mean became more negative as widening in Media-for-Europe and Grifols outweighed convergence across several structurally wide positive-premium pairs.
Convergence nevertheless remained broad beneath the headline statistics. Handelsbanken, Schindler, Henkel, Fuchs, Sixt and Carlsberg all tightened, reinforcing the episodic rather than linear character of ordinary/preference-share relative value.
BMW exits the universe following the conversion of all preferreds into ordinary shares and termination of preferred-share trading, marking the second major capital-structure resolution in consecutive months after Telecom Italia.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

<ul>
<li>June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.</li>
<li>Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.</li>
<li>Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.</li>
</ul>


June was broadly directionless. The median tightened modestly, while the mean was essentially unchanged as convergence in Volkswagen and Roche was offset by widening in Danieli, Sixt and Carlsberg.
Liquidity-Driven convergence remained selective. Media for Europe, Roche and Volkswagen tightened further, while structurally constrained spreads such as Handelsbanken and Danieli remained firmly anchored.
Telecom Italia exits the universe following completion of the savings-share conversion, leaving ownership structure and implementation constraints as the primary drivers of European dual-class dispersion.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<p>Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.</p>

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown.  Along with a recap of important technical levels across major markets, we flip through several attractive Groups and stocks within Advertising, retail, restaurants, and travel, which offer attractive pullback opportunities.

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Spain

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

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Grifols SA (GRF SM)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: September '26 Report

September brought fresh dispersion: Carlsberg, Grifols and MFE widened sharply, improving convergence returns, while Ericsson's B-only buyback adds...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: August '26 Report

August brought fresh dispersion across Europe's dual-class shares, creating new relative-value opportunities while corporate actions remain an...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '26 Report

-July widened dispersion across Europe’s dual-class universe, yet selective convergence persisted beneath the surface. Structural anomalies...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: June '26 Report

June brought renewed divergence across European ord/pref pairs. Structural outliers widened, convergence became more selective, and implementation...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Global Equity Strategy: Another Test of Support

Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no...

Vermilion Research

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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