European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.</li>
<li>Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.</li>
<li>Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.</li>
</ul>


December spreads were technically noisy but structurally neutral: median unchanged, dispersion high, with year-end flows interrupting—but not invalidating—ongoing convergence across Europe’s dual-class universe.
Marginal voting premia continue to erode where control is entrenched: Henkel, Grifols and Roche show further compression as governance risk fades and incremental voting rights lose economic relevance.
Nordic anomalies remain unresolved: Handelsbanken’s &gt;70% premium and SSAB’s anchored discount continue to reflect flow and structural frictions rather than voting economics, offering the clearest dispersion opportunities into 2026.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

<ul>
<li>Standalone recovery in motion: With EBITDA up 12.7% and leverage falling to 4.2x net, Grifols is executing its deleveraging plan and reinstating dividends—removing the urgency for external capital or ownership change.</li>
<li>Deal pressure eases: Brookfield may still see long-term strategic value, but improved financials, family control, and strong liquidity reduce the probability of a near-term offer or “rescue bid.”</li>
<li>Risks remain priced in: Governance opacity, dollar exposure, and still-elevated leverage could limit rerating. M&amp;A optionality persists—but is no longer the base case driving the investment thesis.</li>
</ul>


Standalone recovery in motion: With EBITDA up 12.7% and leverage falling to 4.2x net, Grifols is executing its deleveraging plan and reinstating dividends—removing the urgency for external capital or ownership change.
Deal pressure eases: Brookfield may still see long-term strategic value, but improved financials, family control, and strong liquidity reduce the probability of a near-term offer or “rescue bid.”
Risks remain priced in: Governance opacity, dollar exposure, and still-elevated leverage could limit rerating. M&amp;A optionality persists—but is no longer the base case driving the investment thesis.


Grifols – Operational Recovery Reduces Urgency for a Takeover

<ul>
<li>Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.</li>
<li>The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).</li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening and 13 widening.
The premium of non-voting, less liquid Handelsbanken B shares vs. A has widened to 59.2%; the discount of Grifols B has widened (Brookfield’s approach remains tentative and non-committal).
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, BMW, Grifols, MFE Media-for-Europe. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Handelsbanken, Henkel.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '25 Report

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Grifols has delivered a robust performance for the first quarter of 2025, with impressive financial metrics across the board that highlight the company's strategic resilience and operational strength despite market uncertainties.</li>
<li>The revenue for the quarter reached EUR 1.786 billion, marking a 7.4% increase on a constant currency basis, and 10% when adjusted for one-off items like the IRA impact and fee-for-service reclassification.</li>
<li>The key drivers of this revenue growth included progress in the immunoglobulin franchise, which grew 17.5%, along with improvements in the diagnostics business, which increased by 5.2%.</li>
</ul>


Grifols has delivered a robust performance for the first quarter of 2025, with impressive financial metrics across the board that highlight the company's strategic resilience and operational strength despite market uncertainties.
The revenue for the quarter reached EUR 1.786 billion, marking a 7.4% increase on a constant currency basis, and 10% when adjusted for one-off items like the IRA impact and fee-for-service reclassification.
The key drivers of this revenue growth included progress in the immunoglobulin franchise, which grew 17.5%, along with improvements in the diagnostics business, which increased by 5.2%.


Grifols SA - Strategic Deleveraging & R&D Surge Can Power a Bullish Rebound!

<ul>
<li>Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.</li>
<li>The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. </li>
<li>Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.</li>
</ul>


Since mid-March, amid sessions of significant volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 10 tightening and 9 widening.
The discount of Grifols B has widened although Brookfield is again knocking at the door; Handelsbanken B shares trade at 48% premium to A shares. 
Recommended trades long preferred/short ords: Atlas Copco, Grifols. Recommended trades long ordinary / short preferred shares: Henkel, SSAB Svenska Stal.


Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Spain

Grifols S.A. develops, manufactures, and markets plasma derivatives, IV Therapy, enteral nutrition, diagnostic systems, and medical materials.

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Grifols SA (GRF SM)

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: December'25 Report

December added technical noise, not thesis risk: median spreads were unchanged, convergence paused but intact, marginal voting premia erode, and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Grifols – Operational Recovery Reduces Urgency for a Takeover

Grifols’ turnaround is gaining traction: strong H1 results, dividend reinstatement, and falling leverage suggest Grifols no longer needs a rescue...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: July '25 Report

Since mid-June, share price spreads have generally widened across the European liquid universe of ordinary and preferred shares, with 6 tightening...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Grifols SA - Strategic Deleveraging & R&D Surge Can Power a Bullish Rebound!

The key drivers of this revenue growth included progress in the immunoglobulin franchise, which grew 17.5%, along with improvements in the...

Baptista Research

Liquid Universe of European Ordinary and Preferred Shares: April '25 Report

Since mid-March, with sessions of massive volatility, share-price spreads have generally tightened across European liquid universe of ordinary and...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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