Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air</li>
<li>By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y</li>
<li>Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient</li>
</ul>


Legal border crossings in/out of the US in December continued to weaken, including by air
By region, Northern crossings remain weakest; inbound West air crossings still up Y/Y
Numbers suggest tourism activity from Asian sources remains relatively resilient


December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

Director, Head of Research, Smartkarma

Pranav Rao

Director, Head of Research

Smartkarma

Smartkarma unites the fragmented investment industry, connecting institutional investors, independent research providers, and corporates within a single network.

Research Reinvented

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma. </li>
<li>In this cut, we revisit memory stocks' stellar year, unpack results from <em>the best pure-play gaming franchise</em>, and spotlight airline stocks poised for lift-off.</li>
<li>Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Curator’s Cut — a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,500+ insights published on Smartkarma. 
In this cut, we revisit memory stocks' stellar year, unpack results from the best pure-play gaming franchise, and spotlight airline stocks poised for lift-off.
Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next.


Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings, IPO Boutique

IPO Boutique

US IPOs and Secondary Offerings

For more than 20 years, we have been providing research, analysis, commentary and ratings on US Equity Capital Markets to institutional investors (US IPOs and Secondary Offerings). Our vast network of contacts across the Equity Capital Markets and attention-to-detail sets us apart from our competitors.

Since 2012, we have achieved a successful hit rating on 89% of Buy-rated IPOs. The collective “Buy” ratings averaged a first trade of 16.3% above issue.Our Neutral Rated Deals averaged just 2% above the issue price at first trade.

Our written research includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

In addition, we provide a high-touch premium desk access which includes analyst access, as well as real time insights on US IPOs as well as secondary offerings.

IPOs and Secondary Offerings

Equity Capital Markets

Grupo Aeromexico / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In 2022 the company emerged from Bankruptcy, delisted from the Mexican Stock Exchange, and Apollo became one of the largest shareholders through its financing and debt-to-equity conversions.</li>
<li>They are the leading airline at MEX, the largest airport in Mexico, which is capacity constrained, and accounted for 36.3% of total passengers flying within, to and from Mexico.</li>
<li>Their total revenue was $2.69 billion and $2.50 billion and their net income was $346.7 million and $90.0 million in the first half of 2024 and 2025, respectively.</li>
</ul>


In 2022 the company emerged from Bankruptcy, delisted from the Mexican Stock Exchange, and Apollo became one of the largest shareholders through its financing and debt-to-equity conversions.
They are the leading airline at MEX, the largest airport in Mexico, which is capacity constrained, and accounted for 36.3% of total passengers flying within, to and from Mexico.
Their total revenue was $2.69 billion and $2.50 billion and their net income was $346.7 million and $90.0 million in the first half of 2024 and 2025, respectively.


Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Apollo-Backed Airline Operator

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower, AIR Control Tower

Neil Glynn

Founder & Managing Director, AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower

AIR Control Tower is an independent research and analysis platform. Its mission is to provide impactful insight and analysis across the global airline industry at a company and market level via detailed financial models to aid decision making for key stake holders at a time when risks have seldom, if ever, been higher and the global sector grapples with the imperative of funding de-carbonisation. Unique analysis forecasting global carrier-level earnings/cash flows, and restructuring/de-leveraging prospects, is designed to dynamically assess the health of the industry, predict surprises and identify potential requirements for third party support.

Insights on the global airline industry

<ul>
<li>We update forecasts for Mexican carriers Aeromexico, Viva Aerobus and Volaris following extremely strong 1Q results, driven by capacity management.</li>
<li>We expect each carrier to produce record performances in 2024 as pricing gains continue through the year.</li>
<li>However, we expect market conditions to normalise beyond 2024 and see further gains as a lot more difficult, particularly given drag from higher aircraft ownership costs.</li>
</ul>


We update forecasts for Mexican carriers Aeromexico, Viva Aerobus and Volaris following extremely strong 1Q results, driven by capacity management.
We expect each carrier to produce record performances in 2024 as pricing gains continue through the year.
However, we expect market conditions to normalise beyond 2024 and see further gains as a lot more difficult, particularly given drag from higher aircraft ownership costs.


Mexican Airlines - Capacity Management to Drive Bumper 2024; Gains Beyond Difficult

<ul>
<li>Aeromexico reported record profitability in 2023 and we expect another record in 2024.</li>
<li>Our deep dive on the competitive landscape suggests a benign outlook as Aeromexico does not face competitor capacity growth in 2024.</li>
<li>The US DOT's tentative ruling that Delta and Aeromexico must terminate their JV is a meaningful negative from 4Q24 unless their appeal is successful.</li>
</ul>


Aeromexico reported record profitability in 2023 and we expect another record in 2024.
Our deep dive on the competitive landscape suggests a benign outlook as Aeromexico does not face competitor capacity growth in 2024.
The US DOT's tentative ruling that Delta and Aeromexico must terminate their JV is a meaningful negative from 4Q24 unless their appeal is successful.


Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024

Mexico

Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV operates as an airline. The Company offers air transportation services, as well as promotes passenger loyalty programs. Grupo Aeromexico serves customers worldwide.

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Grupo Aeromexico (AERO US)

December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

December data from US Customs and Border Protection show reduced border crossings in and out of the US. One bright spot is air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

This Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.

Pranav Rao

Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Apollo-Backed Airline Operator

In 2022, leading airline in Mexico emerged from bankruptcy, delisted from stock exchange, with Apollo as major shareholder, dominating MEX airport...

IPO Boutique

Mexican Airlines - Capacity Management to Drive Bumper 2024; Gains Beyond Difficult

Deep dive on the financial prospects of the three major Mexican airlines, Aeromexico, Viva Aerobus and Volaris, highlighting record performances in...

Neil Glynn

Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024

Detailed forecasts for Aeromexico suggest another record year in prospect in 2024 as our deep dive on competitive capacity suggests a benign...

Neil Glynn

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December 2025 USCBP Data Shows US Border Crossing Activity Continued to Decline, Especially in North

December data from US Customs and Border Protection show reduced border crossings in and out of the US. One bright spot is air crossings in the...

Tracking Traffic

Curator's Cut: Korea's Memory Mania, Nintendo's Next Play & Airline Takeoffs

This ​Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.

Pranav Rao

Grupo Aeroméxico (AERO): Peeking at the IPO Prospectus of Apollo-Backed Airline Operator

​In 2022, leading airline in Mexico emerged from bankruptcy, delisted from stock exchange, with Apollo as major shareholder, dominating MEX airport...

IPO Boutique

Mexican Airlines - Capacity Management to Drive Bumper 2024; Gains Beyond Difficult

Deep dive on the financial prospects of the three major Mexican airlines, Aeromexico, Viva Aerobus and Volaris, highlighting record performances in...

Neil Glynn

Aeromexico – Another Record Year in Prospect in 2024

Detailed forecasts for Aeromexico suggest another record year in prospect in 2024 as our deep dive on competitive capacity suggests a benign...

Neil Glynn

This Curator's Cut reviews the rally in memory stocks, the top gaming franchise's results, and two airline stocks that could be cleared for takeoff.

In 2022, leading airline in Mexico emerged from bankruptcy, delisted from stock exchange, with Apollo as major shareholder, dominating MEX airport...