Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>BBVA Mexico expanded its premium return on equity of the big nine Mexican banks to 23% to December, and through opex control, it “works” its healthy core capital ratio hard</li>
<li>The bank system trends remain healthy, with additional improvements to NPL ratios and healthy coverage; Banorte and BanBajio screen better than peers on combined credit quality metrics to December</li>
<li>We believe that mid-cap bank BanBajio is good value, and are positive on BBVA for its Mexican exposure; on balance, we remain cautious on Banorte, due largely to valuation</li>
</ul>


BBVA Mexico expanded its premium return on equity of the big nine Mexican banks to 23% to December, and through opex control, it “works” its healthy core capital ratio hard
The bank system trends remain healthy, with additional improvements to NPL ratios and healthy coverage; Banorte and BanBajio screen better than peers on combined credit quality metrics to December
We believe that mid-cap bank BanBajio is good value, and are positive on BBVA for its Mexican exposure; on balance, we remain cautious on Banorte, due largely to valuation


Mexican Banks’ December Data Adds to Positive Trend on Credit Quality, but Lending Spread Eroding

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d / Equity Bottom-Up

Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d (GFNORTEO MF)

<ul>
<li>Banorte delivered a mixed bag of quarterly results, with eroded interest margins and accelerating opex growth; insurance recovered slightly in 4Q, but pandemic claims still weighed on full year results</li>
<li>The bank balance sheet, with a core capital ratio of 15%+ and the NPL ratio at 1%, is reassuring but we believe that the cost of credit is unsustainably low</li>
<li>Recovering insurance earnings will add to 2022 group returns, but will not, we believe, offset the far larger Banorte bank, challenged by opex growth and a higher cost of risk</li>
</ul>


Banorte delivered a mixed bag of quarterly results, with eroded interest margins and accelerating opex growth; insurance recovered slightly in 4Q, but pandemic claims still weighed on full year results
The bank balance sheet, with a core capital ratio of 15%+ and the NPL ratio at 1%, is reassuring but we believe that the cost of credit is unsustainably low
Recovering insurance earnings will add to 2022 group returns, but will not, we believe, offset the far larger Banorte bank, challenged by opex growth and a higher cost of risk


Banorte (GFNORTEO MM): 4Q21 Reveals Sound Asset Quality, but Returns Recovery Challenged in 2022

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Citi is to sell its Mexican retail and SME banking operations, which we call new Banamex; it is an attractive banking franchise that needs investment and a focus on costs</li>
<li>Based on peer group valuations, and on new Banamex’s disclosed parameters, we estimate that the disposal entity’s valuation range could range from USD7bn to USD10bn, and we identify potential bidders</li>
<li>We believe that our new Banamex valuation range emphasizes BanBajio’s attractive valuations, we stick with our positive view on mid-cap BanBajio; we believe that Banorte is fully valued</li>
</ul>


Citi is to sell its Mexican retail and SME banking operations, which we call new Banamex; it is an attractive banking franchise that needs investment and a focus on costs
Based on peer group valuations, and on new Banamex’s disclosed parameters, we estimate that the disposal entity’s valuation range could range from USD7bn to USD10bn, and we identify potential bidders
We believe that our new Banamex valuation range emphasizes BanBajio’s attractive valuations, we stick with our positive view on mid-cap BanBajio; we believe that Banorte is fully valued


Citi’s Mexican Exit; Our Thoughts on “new Banamex”

<ul>
<li>BBVA Mexico delivered premium return on equity (ROE) of the big nine Mexican banks to November, at 20%+ and, through opex control, “works” its healthy core capital ratio hard</li>
<li>The bank system trends remain healthy, with improving NPL ratios and healthy coverage; Banorte and BanBajio continue to screen better than peers on combined credit quality metrics to November</li>
<li>We like mid-cap bank BanBajio for its good value, and are positive on BBVA for its Mexican exposure; we remain cautious on Banorte to a degree, due largely to valuation</li>
</ul>


BBVA Mexico delivered premium return on equity (ROE) of the big nine Mexican banks to November, at 20%+ and, through opex control, “works” its healthy core capital ratio hard
The bank system trends remain healthy, with improving NPL ratios and healthy coverage; Banorte and BanBajio continue to screen better than peers on combined credit quality metrics to November
We like mid-cap bank BanBajio for its good value, and are positive on BBVA for its Mexican exposure; we remain cautious on Banorte to a degree, due largely to valuation


Mexican Banks’ November Data Looking Positive on Credit Quality, Lending Spread Stable

<ul>
<li>Among EM banks, our top picks are Sberbank in Russia, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank in India; we are negative on recent IPO Nubank due to inflated market expectations</li>
<li>Our top picks for 2022 are BBVA and Banco BPM for Southern Europe banks. In Exchanges, we are positive on B3 of Brazil and SGX</li>
<li>In payments, we like Mastercard and Pagseguro, but we are negative on Paytm; we see BTG Pactual as an attractive pick and winner in the digital wealth managers and brokers</li>
</ul>


Among EM banks, our top picks are Sberbank in Russia, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank in India; we are negative on recent IPO Nubank due to inflated market expectations
Our top picks for 2022 are BBVA and Banco BPM for Southern Europe banks. In Exchanges, we are positive on B3 of Brazil and SGX
In payments, we like Mastercard and Pagseguro, but we are negative on Paytm; we see BTG Pactual as an attractive pick and winner in the digital wealth managers and brokers


2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

Mexico

Grupo Financiero Banorte S.A.B. de C.V. is a financial institution in Mexico. The Company offers banking services, premium banking, wholesale banking, leasing and factoring, warehousing, insurance, pensions and retirement savings.

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Grupo Financiero Banorte SAB d (GFNORTEO MF)

Mexican Banks’ December Data Adds to Positive Trend on Credit Quality, but Lending Spread Eroding

Credit quality ends the year strong, with evidence of marginal spread erosion in December; we like mid-cap bank BanBajio and BBVA for BBVA Mexico;...

Victor Galliano

Banorte (GFNORTEO MM): 4Q21 Reveals Sound Asset Quality, but Returns Recovery Challenged in 2022

Recovering insurance earnings will add to 2022 group ROE, but will not, we believe, offset the far larger Banorte bank, challenged by opex growth...

Victor Galliano

Citi’s Mexican Exit; Our Thoughts on “new Banamex”

Citi sale of its Mexican commercial bank, new Banamex, will need the acquirer to control opex; in this report we estimate the valuation range &...

Victor Galliano

Mexican Banks’ November Data Looking Positive on Credit Quality, Lending Spread Stable

November Mexican bank sector credit quality data are positive, with little spread erosion. BBVA Mexico remains the local benchmark based on...

Victor Galliano

2022 High Conviction Ideas in FinTech & Financials

Our 2022 high conviction ideas include buys on Sberbank, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank, as well as BBVA, Banco BPM, B3, SGX, Mastercard and...

Victor Galliano

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