Japanese Equity Specialist, Ortus Advisors

Andrew Jackson

Japanese Equity Specialist

Ortus Advisors

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.</li>
<li>Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.</li>
<li>Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.</li>
</ul>


Marvell the latest US tech major to raise its TAM for AI helping buoy related names.
Deal that sees Wolfspeed briefly dipping into chapter11 may bode well for Renesas.
Sega Sammy lays out plans to get its valuations up and inline with peers as games surge given their tariff resilience.


Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan, Vantage Capital Markets Japan

François-Xavier Pustoc'h

Equity Derivatives Broker - Delta One Japan

Independent Financial Broker

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

We provide world class financial solutions to our extensive institutional client base including rapidly growing corporations, leading investment banks, commercial banks, asset managers, private equity funds, family offices and hedge funds.

Our services include capital market offerings and placements, wholesale brokerage and execution of cash and derivative products (both listed and OTC) across a range of asset classes.

VCM has offices in London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Dubai from where we service our global client base. Our strength lies in the experience and quality of our teams, supported by excellent operations and infrastructure.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric Corp (6525.T): High Liquidity Group<br>TOP 75, BayCurrent Inc (6532.T), Shift Inc (3697.T)</li>
<li>Rebalancing Candidates DEL: Mitsubishi Logistics Corp. (9301.T), Okuma Corp.<br>(6103.T), Tokuyama Corp (4043.T)</li>
<li>Capping Ratio: Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983.T)’s Price Adjustment Factor from 2.7 to<br>2.4</li>
</ul>


Rebalancing Candidates ADD: Kokusai Electric Corp (6525.T): High Liquidity Group TOP 75, BayCurrent Inc (6532.T), Shift Inc (3697.T)
Rebalancing Candidates DEL: Mitsubishi Logistics Corp. (9301.T), Okuma Corp. (6103.T), Tokuyama Corp (4043.T)
Capping Ratio: Fast Retailing Co Ltd (9983.T)’s Price Adjustment Factor from 2.7 to 2.4


Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – January 2025

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.


Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.</li>
<li>Following the rally in the stock, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> trades expensive to the average and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.</li>
<li>The increase in cumulative excess volume in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fujikura-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10768:1" rel="noopener">Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP)</a> over the last 3 months far outpaces the increase in its peers.</li>
</ul>



Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) could be added to a global index at the end of November and there will be a lot of buying in the stock.
Following the rally in the stock, Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) trades expensive to the average and median of its peers on most valuation metrics.
The increase in cumulative excess volume in Fujikura Ltd (5803 JP) over the last 3 months far outpaces the increase in its peers.


Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

<ul>
<li>The last two reviews have been announced on the second business day of the month of the review. The one before that on the third business day.</li>
<li>The review could be announced today or tomorrow. Wednesday would seem to be "late."</li>
<li>There are still questions about implementation - thus "care" in previous insights. Here I explore the possibilities/probabilities/issues around the edges. And a Dark Horse which may be lighter than thought.</li>
</ul>


The last two reviews have been announced on the second business day of the month of the review. The one before that on the third business day.
The review could be announced today or tomorrow. Wednesday would seem to be "late."
There are still questions about implementation - thus "care" in previous insights. Here I explore the possibilities/probabilities/issues around the edges. And a Dark Horse which may be lighter than thought.


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions

Japan

GS Yuasa Corporation is a holding company established through the merger of Yuasa Corp. and Japan Storage Battery Co., Ltd.  The Company manages financial operations for its subsidiaries, which manufactures storage batteries used for automobiles, motorcycles, computers, and lighting equipment.

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Gs Yuasa Corp (6674 JP)

Japan Morning Connection: Fears over Iran Continue to Diminish Despite the Spectre of US Involvement

JP game companies Nintendo and Sega Sammy continue to rise. Battery names may start to suffer. Wolfspeed deal may positively impact Renesas.

Andrew Jackson

Nikkei 225 Stock Average Rebalancing – January 2025

As per the “Periodic Review” conducted twice a year by Nikkei Inc. (Nikkei), the constituents of Nikkei 225 will be reviewed and changed at the end...

Vantage Capital Markets Japan

Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 rebal has <8 weeks to go before it is set. ADDs and DELETEs are mostly decided. The bigger question is the capping of...

Travis Lundy

Fujikura (5803 JP): Positioning & Potential Passive Buying

The increased market cap could lead to Fujikura being added to passive portfolios at the end of Nov. Positioning in the stock is larger than in...

Brian Freitas

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Last Minute Thoughts and Change in Predictions

The September Nikkei 225 rebalance is likely to be announced either today, tomorrow, or Thursday. I have adjusted my picks to go for 3 x 3. If I...

Travis Lundy

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