Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Gulf Energy Development  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We reiterate our BUY call with a TP of Bt62.0. We maintain our positive outlook on GULF’s strong EPS growth of 31% in 2023,underpinned by 1.5GWe projects expected to recognize </li>
<li>Weak earnings expected in 3Q22 We expect GULF to post a net profit of Bt1.1bn (-30% YoY, -27% QoQ) in 3Q22. The QoQ and YoY drop in the net profit</li>
<li>GULF's recurring profit is also expected to drop 25% QoQ to Bt2.4bn (+2% YoY), caused by weak operations from IPP powerplants on account of weak electricity dispatch as EGAT prioritized</li>
</ul>


We reiterate our BUY call with a TP of Bt62.0. We maintain our positive outlook on GULF’s strong EPS growth of 31% in 2023,underpinned by 1.5GWe projects expected to recognize 
Weak earnings expected in 3Q22 We expect GULF to post a net profit of Bt1.1bn (-30% YoY, -27% QoQ) in 3Q22. The QoQ and YoY drop in the net profit
GULF's recurring profit is also expected to drop 25% QoQ to Bt2.4bn (+2% YoY), caused by weak operations from IPP powerplants on account of weak electricity dispatch as EGAT prioritized


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-international-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:949:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)</a>'s shareholders approved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl-ca1a971f-2f70-4565-b1fd-dda5b533acd3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27653:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a> acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jasmine-broadband-internet-infrastructure-fund" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:86:1" rel="noopener">Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB)</a>.</li>
<li>The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.</li>
<li>Separately, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/total-access-communication" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:948:1" rel="noopener">DTAC</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/true-corp-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8:1" rel="noopener">True</a> merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.</li>
</ul>



Jasmine International PCL (JAS TB)'s shareholders approved Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB) acquiring its subsidiary Triple T Broadband, and to buy 19% of Jasmine Broadband (JASIF TB).
The deal, involving a total outlay of Bt32.4bn, remains subject to approval from JASIF unitholders and NBTC. AIS' current market cap is Bt574bn.
Separately, the DTAC / True merger looks set to become a reality as it, ironically, does not require NBTC approval. A merger would create a duopoly and ultimately benefit AIS.


Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

<ul>
<li>We maintain the BUY call while raising the TP by 7%to Bt62.0 on the back of SOTP adjustment to factor in acquisition of new 588MWe Jackson Generation power project (US) </li>
<li>49% holding in the US project will add Bt4 in SOTP The company informs the SET about acquiring 49% stake in 1,200 MW (588MWe) Gas power plant “Jackson Generation”</li>
<li>The company supplies electricity to the PJM (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland) which is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in the US</li>
</ul>


We maintain the BUY call while raising the TP by 7%to Bt62.0 on the back of SOTP adjustment to factor in acquisition of new 588MWe Jackson Generation power project (US) 
49% holding in the US project will add Bt4 in SOTP The company informs the SET about acquiring 49% stake in 1,200 MW (588MWe) Gas power plant “Jackson Generation”
The company supplies electricity to the PJM (Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland) which is a regional transmission organization (RTO) that coordinates the movement of wholesale electricity in the US


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.</li>
<li>This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.</li>
<li>While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.</li>
</ul>


We are seeing signs that suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes and Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical support.
This includes the S&amp;P 500, Russell 2000, MSCI ACWI (local currency), TOPIX/TOPIX Small/Nikkei 225, MSCI ACWI Technology (IXN-US), Consumer Discretionary (RXI-US), Financials (IXG-US), Industrials and (EXI-US) -- add exposure.
While our overall outlook remains neutral, we continue to see a plethora of attractive buying opportunities in the new leaders.


Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)</a>'s discount to NAV is back to levels last seen in November 2021, where euphoric trading was rolling over subsequent to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)</a>'s VTO.</li>
<li>Intouch's net cash increased in the 2Q22 and its look-through interim dividend payout is the highest in at least five years.</li>
<li>I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB)</a>, with a view to mean reversion of ~25% NAV discount. </li>
</ul>



Intouch Holdings (INTUCH TB)'s discount to NAV is back to levels last seen in November 2021, where euphoric trading was rolling over subsequent to Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)'s VTO.
Intouch's net cash increased in the 2Q22 and its look-through interim dividend payout is the highest in at least five years.
I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info Service (ADVANC TB), with a view to mean reversion of ~25% NAV discount. 


Intouch's NAV Discount Not Supported By Higher Look-Through Payout

Thailand

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

GULF : Weak 3Q22 Earnings Expected

We reiterate our BUY call with a TP of Bt62.0. We maintain our positive outlook on GULF’s strong EPS growth of 31% in 2023, underpinned by 1.5GWe...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Intouch: AIS' Expanding Broadband And Expected Mobile Duopoly

I'd still be shorting Intouch here and buying Advanced Info. I believe a more reasonable discount to NAV target is >20%.

David Blennerhassett

GULF : Expansion in the US Plant

We maintain the BUY call while raising the TP by 7% to Bt62.0 on the back of SOTP adjustment to factor in acquisition of new 588MWe Jackson...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pullback Complete?; Commodities Heading Lower; Buying Growth/Cyclicals & A Few Utilities

Signs suggest this pullback may have run its course, as several global market indexes & Sectors appear to be making a higher low near logical...

Vermilion Research

Intouch's NAV Discount Not Supported By Higher Look-Through Payout

I'd be shorting Intouch here and buying AIS. I think a more reasonable discount to NAV is >20%. Gulf's holding remains problematic though, and...

David Blennerhassett

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)