Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities, Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Research

Thai Equity - Bottom-up - Equities

Leading, full-service investment firm in Thailand

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Pi Securities is a well known securities company with 40 years experience in the industry, serving more than 60,000 clients. We offer one - stop service providing full range of financial products and services including extensive Brokerage, Proprietary Trading (Equities and Bonds), Advisory Services, Structured Products.

Moreover, our new research team tailored for institutional clients to focus on mid to small cap of Thai equities and trading strategies. Our services offered to our premium clients also include arrangement of company or site visits to with the managements of Thai listed companies.

Note: Effective on 1 March 2022, Country Group Securities PCL changed its name to Pi Securities

Equity Bottom-Up

Gulf Energy Development  / Equity Bottom-Up

<p><strong>Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt41.4 derived using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology, implying a 78x PE’21.</strong></p><div>• The 4Q20 earnings is expected to improve YoY on the back of better GPM, and profit recognition from 230MWe power generation capacity added in 3Q20. While soften QoQ due to lower IPP seasonal contribution and higher SG&amp;A expenses</div><div></div><div>• We maintain the positive 2021 earnings outlook as we expect a 30% YoY EPS growth from 1) Improving GPM due to declining gas cost (-10% YoY) 2) Full year &amp; partial earnings recognition from 1.1GWe projects COD in 2020-21.</div><div></div><div>• The company has 2.92GWe of power generation capacity in operation and have  additional 5.1GWe projects going online in 2021-2017 period, representing a 15% CAGR growth.</div>

Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt41.4 derived using sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology, implying a 78x PE’21.• The 4Q20 earnings is expected to improve YoY on the back of better GPM, and profit recognition from 230MWe power generation capacity added in 3Q20. While soften QoQ due to lower IPP seasonal contribution and higher SG&amp;A expenses• We maintain the positive 2021 earnings outlook as we expect a 30% YoY EPS growth from 1) Improving GPM due to declining gas cost (-10% YoY) 2) Full year &amp; partial earnings recognition from 1.1GWe projects COD in 2020-21.• The company has 2.92GWe of power generation capacity in operation and have  additional 5.1GWe projects going online in 2021-2017 period, representing a 15% CAGR growth.

GULF: 22% CAGR Capacity Expansion in Next 5 Years

Asean-focused. Ex-Head of Thai Research

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

Asean (Thailand) Focused Independent Research

M Corp Review

M Corp is led by Athaporn Arayasantiparb who served as Head of Research for UOB and ANZ in Thailand and was an award-winning telecoms analyst at UBS in 2010 (AsiaMoney Thailand category) and Regional Strategist for DMG in Singapore. Prior to that, he also served as Kasikornbank credit analyst and scholar. He has a total work experience of 17 years, of which 14 were in research and 4 in research management roles. He started his career as an engineer for PTT and currently manages family investments. He holds an MBA from Stern (NYU) and CFA Charter since 2006. Apart from IPO Radar, which focuses on future listings, MCorp Review also provides six on-going thematic series ranked by frequency in descending order, namely: 1) Silicon Stories (technology) 2) Sathorn Series (financial services) 3) Thai-Coons (billionaire origin stories) 4) Reality Check (data-driven, investigative) 5) Thai Media Spotlight; and 6) Thai Macro Watch (global market drivers).

Cross Asset Strategy

<div><p>The low-base effects and continuation of QE under either Presidents conspire to raise Thai equities in 2021. Relative to our portfolio last year, these are the key adjustments <em>MCorp Review</em> has made:</p></div><div><ul>
<li>
<strong>Upgrades </strong>to: 1) financials due to the impact of QE; and 2) healthcare due to more reasonable valuations.</li>
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<strong>Downgrades </strong>to: 1) energy, autos, and media due to changes in technology; 2) transport and power due to rising valuations and lack of catalyst; and 3) construction and electronics due to change in political environment. We are also less excited about F&amp;B or REITs, as markets head into a 'risk-on' phase.</li>
<li>
<strong>Maintenance </strong>of: 1) our originally bullish stance on tourism, telecoms, and IE; and 2) our bearish stance on property.</li>
</ul></div><div><p></p></div>

The low-base effects and continuation of QE under either Presidents conspire to raise Thai equities in 2021. Relative to our portfolio last year, these are the key adjustments MCorp Review has made:

Upgrades to: 1) financials due to the impact of QE; and 2) healthcare due to more reasonable valuations.

Downgrades to: 1) energy, autos, and media due to changes in technology; 2) transport and power due to rising valuations and lack of catalyst; and 3) construction and electronics due to change in political environment. We are also less excited about F&amp;B or REITs, as markets head into a 'risk-on' phase.

Maintenance of: 1) our originally bullish stance on tourism, telecoms, and IE; and 2) our bearish stance on property.


Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/scg-packaging-public-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28684:1" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging (SCGP TB)</a> raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/siam-cement-pcl-the" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2589:1" rel="noopener">Siam Cement (SCC TB)</a> group.</p></div><div><p>SCGP is a packaging solutions provider in ASEAN offering fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, food service products, design, printing and other solutions. SCGP is the largest packaging paper and corrugated containers producer in ASEAN, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan. </p></div><div>I have covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:</div><div><ul>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-pre-ipo-shift-to-packaging-has-been-aiding-margins-but-acquisition-drove-up-leverage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging Pre-IPO - Shift to packaging has been aiding margins but acquisitions have driven up leverage</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/scg-packaging-ipo-unexciting" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting</a></li>
</ul></div><p>In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.</p>

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) raise around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. It is a part of the Siam Cement (SCC TB) group.SCGP is a packaging solutions provider in ASEAN offering fiber-based packaging, performance and polymer packaging, food service products, design, printing and other solutions. SCGP is the largest packaging paper and corrugated containers producer in ASEAN, as per Frost &amp; Sullivan. I have covered various aspects of the deal in my earlier notes:
SCG Packaging Pre-IPO - Shift to packaging has been aiding margins but acquisitions have driven up leverage
SCG Packaging IPO - Unexciting
In this note, I'll talk about the deal updates and provide implied valuations at different share price levels.

SCG Packaging IPO Trading - Placed with Domestics

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Melco International Development / Event-Driven

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<p>This week in StubWorld ...</p>
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<p>Lawrence Ho has all-but sidestepped family succession issues since his father passed away earlier this year - Stanley fathered 17 children with four women, and I count at last three ongoing legal actions by the siblings  - and appears intent on developing his own brand. With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/melco-international-development-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:809:1" rel="noopener">Melco International Development (200 HK)</a> languishing around its NAV lows, will he simply continue to (gradually) increase his stake in Melco, or propose a major restructuring. </p>
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<p>Preceding my comments on Toyota and Melco, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</p>
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<p>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.</p>
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This week in StubWorld ...



Lawrence Ho has all-but sidestepped family succession issues since his father passed away earlier this year - Stanley fathered 17 children with four women, and I count at last three ongoing legal actions by the siblings  - and appears intent on developing his own brand. With Melco International Development (200 HK) languishing around its NAV lows, will he simply continue to (gradually) increase his stake in Melco, or propose a major restructuring. 



Preceding my comments on Toyota and Melco, are the weekly setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.





These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity threshold of US$1mn on a 90-day moving average, and a % market capitalisation threshold - the $ value of the holding/opco held, over the parent’s market capitalisation, expressed in percent - of at least 20%.




StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) At NAV Trough Levels

CEO, A. Stotz Investment Research

Dr. Andrew Stotz, CFA

Quantamental Investing to beat Benchmarks

A. Stotz Investment Research

We pick stocks. We construct portfolios. All our effort is focused on how to better pick stocks and construct portfolios. We serve fund management companies, family offices, and high net worth individuals.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<section><div id="ember1644"><div><p>We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.</p></div></div></section>

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai market to try to find interesting ideas base upon Fundamentals or Valuation or Momentum or Risk or some combination thereof.

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30

Thailand

Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited produces and sells electricity and steam. The Company manages a portfolio of gas-fired and renewable power projects, as well as supplies steam and chilled water. Gulf Energy Development serves customers in Thailand.

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Gulf Energy Development (GULF TB)

GULF: 22% CAGR Capacity Expansion in Next 5 Years

Yesterday analyst meeting came out in a positive tone. We maintain the BUY recommendation with a target price of Bt41.4 derived using sum-of-the...

Pi Securities PCL, Thailand

Thai Strategy 2021 (Part 3): Sector Outlooks

The low-base effects and continuation of QE under either Presidents conspire to raise Thai equities in 2021. Buy banks, avoid energy,

Athaporn Arayasantiparb, CFA

SCG Packaging IPO Trading - Placed with Domestics

SCG Packaging (SCGP TB) raised around US$1.2bn in its Thailand IPO. Given its lack of growth in the past, we remain less than excited, to put it...

Sumeet Singh

StubWorld: Melco (200 HK) At NAV Trough Levels

his week in StubWorld ... Commercial real estate (in the world's most expensive city) - check. Hotel exposure - check. Marine services -...

David Blennerhassett

The Stocks to Own in Thailand – Vol. 30

We highlight 14 stocks in Thailand that look interesting to us based upon our FVMR Methodology. Our research team constantly reviews the Thai...

A. Stotz Investment Research

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