IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>, a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.</li>
<li>We previously discussed the IPO in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bull-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:181653" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/chagee-holdings-cha-us-ipo-the-bear-case" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:182085" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case</a>.</li>
<li>There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US), a leading premium tea drinks brand, is seeking to raise US$382-411 million through a Nasdaq IPO.
We previously discussed the IPO in Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bull Case and Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: The Bear Case.
There are four cornerstone investors. Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.


Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a> is offering 14.68 million shares for USD26 to USD28 each to raise upto USD411 million in its initial public offering in the US.</li>
<li>Chagee's premium branded teahouses blend traditional tea culture with modern, tech-driven service, distinctly setting itself apart from bubble tea kiosks. </li>
<li>Chagee's IPO is priced at a discount to forward valuations of recently listed (in HK) China-based freshly brewed drinks players and leading Cafe companies.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US) is offering 14.68 million shares for USD26 to USD28 each to raise upto USD411 million in its initial public offering in the US.
Chagee's premium branded teahouses blend traditional tea culture with modern, tech-driven service, distinctly setting itself apart from bubble tea kiosks. 
Chagee's IPO is priced at a discount to forward valuations of recently listed (in HK) China-based freshly brewed drinks players and leading Cafe companies.


Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Nicholas Tan

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/chagee-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45011:1" rel="noopener">Chagee Holdings (CHA US)</a>  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.</li>
<li>It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.</li>
</ul>



Chagee Holdings (CHA US)  is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO.
It is a leading premium tea drinks brand, serving healthy and delicious freshly-made tea drinks.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and provided our initial thoughts on valuations. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing.


Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). </li>
<li>Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. </li>
<li>We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range ($28 per share). 
Our base case valuation is based on a P/E of 21.4x on our estimated net profit of 2.9 billion RMB in 2025. 
We used a very conservative valuation multiple, mainly due to the extremely high macro risks related to the ongoing tariff dispute between China and the United States.


HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. </li>
<li>Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future</li>
<li>Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.</li>
</ul>


Revenue growth of MIXUE in 2024 was the lowest in recent three year but is still higher than competitors.Together with higher profit margin, MIXUE’s valuation should be higher than peers. 
Based on 2024 results, we adjusted our forecast for the next three years. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth outlook in the future
Due to concerns, investors need to pay attention to the performance verification.If 2025H1 net profit growth is significantly lower than 30% YoY, investors should be alert to a potential correction.


Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

China

Guming Holdings Ltd operates as a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, sells bubble tea.

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Guming Holdings (1364 HK)

Chagee Holdings (CHA US) IPO: Valuation Insights

Our valuation analysis suggests Chagee is attractively valued at the IPO price range. Therefore, we would participate in the IPO.

Arun George

Chagee IPO: Luckin X Starbucks of Tea. Pricing, Valuation, Key Facts & Financials

Chagee - the premium teahouse chain - has priced its US IPO at US$26 to US$26, at a valuation discount to freshly made beverage players listed in...

Devi Subhakesan

Chagee IPO: Trading at a Discount to Peers but with Geopolitical Overhang

Chagee is looking to raise up to US$411m in its upcoming US IPO. In this note, we talk about the IPO pricing and how it's valued relative to peers.

Nicholas Tan

Chagee Holdings IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation of Chagee Holdings is target price of $46.7 per share, representing 67% higher than the high end of the IPO price range...

Douglas Kim

Mixue Group (2097 HK) - Updates on Valuation Outlook and Growth Forecast Based on 2024 Results

We adjusted next 3yr forecast. Declining performance growth is inevitable, but successful internationalization helps reassure its high growth...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

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