Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixue-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40623:1" rel="noopener">Mixue Group (2097 HK)</a> will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in June.</li>
<li>The HSCI inclusion will result in the stocks being added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 9 June and that could result in sizeable inflows.</li>
<li>Use stock price spikes to trim positions in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bloks-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43648:1" rel="noopener">Bloks Group (325 HK)</a> ahead of lock-up expiry in July, and in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guming-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40622:1" rel="noopener">Guming Holdings (1364 HK)</a> ahead of lock-up expiry in August.</li>
</ul>


As expected, Bloks Group (325 HK), Guming Holdings (1364 HK) and Mixue Group (2097 HK) will be added to the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) in June.
The HSCI inclusion will result in the stocks being added to Southbound Stock Connect from the open of trading on 9 June and that could result in sizeable inflows.
Use stock price spikes to trim positions in Bloks Group (325 HK) ahead of lock-up expiry in July, and in Guming Holdings (1364 HK) ahead of lock-up expiry in August.


HSCI Index Rebalance: Bloks (325 HK), Guming (1364 HK) & MIXUE (2097 HK) Added

A Value Investing Journal, Acid Investments

Acid Investments

A Value Investing Journal

I love stonks and I love rambling. Sometimes, I feel it unfair to subject those around me with the inundation of my thoughts, so I tweet and I spill ink on here. Jokes aside, I love investing and edgy ideas; I hope to become a better investor and this is my journal to that end. I will be sharing value/special situations I come across organically or through other blogs/13F and I hope to provide a variant analytical view to said situations. I hope to receive constructive feedback and let’s grab some of dem benjamins together!

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Last week, I wrote a quick article flagging the seemingly absurd valuation discrepancy of Chagee vis-a-vis beverage peers on the HK stock exchange i.e. Mixue and Guming, as well as Luckin Coffee on the OTC markets.</li><li>Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst coverage and the firm has yet to report its Q1 25 results so it’s just really stuck in no-man’s land.</li><li>I postulated then that delisting risk was an overhang on Chagee, a Chinese ADR, but lo and behold, it appears that the market has shrugged off a large portion of it for the large cap Chinese tech companies.</li></ul>

Last week, I wrote a quick article flagging the seemingly absurd valuation discrepancy of Chagee vis-a-vis beverage peers on the HK stock exchange i.e. Mixue and Guming, as well as Luckin Coffee on the OTC markets.Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst coverage and the firm has yet to report its Q1 25 results so it’s just really stuck in no-man’s land.I postulated then that delisting risk was an overhang on Chagee, a Chinese ADR, but lo and behold, it appears that the market has shrugged off a large portion of it for the large cap Chinese tech companies.

Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.</li>
<li>A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.</li>
<li>If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.</li>
</ul>


The core reason for the success of Chagee lies in the Company finding an effective "shortcut" of business model – “minimalism”, but this model does not imply a high moat.
A likely situation is Chagee's future growth in domestic market would be limited, and the overseas expansion could be unsatisfactory.So, we recommend investors to be cautious about the valuation prospects.
If domestic competition intensifies or overseas expansion falls short of expectations, it is highly likely that the stock price will fall back to the range of US$25-30/share or even lower.


Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

<ul>
<li>Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.</li>
<li>Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.</li>
<li>Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sichuan-baicha-baidao-industrial-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40029:1" rel="noopener">Baicha Baidao</a>.</li>
</ul>


Like peers, we saw the performance growth slowdown of Auntea Jenny in 2024, mainly due to industry slowdown and intensified competition. Auntea Jenny does not have advantage in lower-tier markets.
Auntea Jenny relies on third-party suppliers, with insufficient cold chain coverage, resulting in weak cost control.It’s difficult to maintain the current profit margin level. Franchisees may be forced to quit.
Valuation of Auntea Jenny should be lower than Guming and MIXUE. Considering the weak fundamentals and uncertain outlook, it is already good if valuation could be similar to Baicha Baidao.


Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

<ul><li>As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.</li><li>Fad cycles may or may not have legs - see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.</li><li>Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.</li></ul>

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding ways to cash in on that “insight”, the caveat being you have to be right about the trend of course.Fad cycles may or may not have legs - see Funko in US and PopMart in HK.Not too long ago, I noticed PopMart replacing a local major bank outlet in a central shopping mall near to where I live and heedlessly dismissing it with a mere “wth is this?”, to my chagrin of course as the stock has gone parabolic ever since.

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

China

Guming Holdings Limited is a holding company primarily engaged in the production and sale of freshly made beverages through its "Good me" brand. It operates a franchised tea store retail network, offering fruit tea, milk tea, and coffee beverages. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.

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Guming (1364 HK)

HSCI Index Rebalance: Bloks (325 HK), Guming (1364 HK) & MIXUE (2097 HK) Added

Bloks, Guming and MIXUE will be added to the HSCI on 6 June and then to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 9 June. Use stock price jumps to...

Brian Freitas

Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)

Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst...

Acid Investments

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The sharp rise of Auntea Jenny on its IPO debut reflects investors' confidence in its growth potential in China's lower-tier markets. But high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding...

Acid Investments

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

HSCI Index Rebalance: Bloks (325 HK), Guming (1364 HK) & MIXUE (2097 HK) Added

Bloks, Guming and MIXUE will be added to the HSCI on 6 June and then to Southbound Stock Connect from the open on 9 June. Use stock price jumps to...

Brian Freitas

Part 2: What Could Go Wrong at Chagee (CHA)

Chagee currently trades around ~31 (doing extremely poorly on a good day), and at the bottom of its recent trading range; there is no analyst...

Acid Investments

Chagee Holdings - Debut Is the Peak, and Then It Wanes?

​Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Pre-IPO Auntea Jenny (Shanghai) Industrial (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

The sharp rise of Auntea Jenny on its IPO debut reflects investors' confidence in its growth potential in China's lower-tier markets. But high...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Flagging a Recent IPO - Chagee (CHA) - Orphaned Security Trading at a Large Spread to Peers

As Peter Lynch famously promulgated, one really fun thing about investing is noticing trends, “flowers” that are blooming around you, and finding...

Acid Investments

Chagee's success is attributed to a minimalist business model, but caution is advised for investors due to limited growth potential/uncertain...