Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 23- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> / <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a>'s merger, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlantic-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40322:1" rel="noopener">Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU)</a>'s Scheme.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius (HLS AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 23- mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Two new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Regis Resources (RRL AU) / Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)'s merger, and Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU)'s Scheme.
Key updates/news also took place on: Healius (HLS AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), Humm Group (HUM AU), Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK), and China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Regis/Vault, Atlantic Lithium, Atlas Arteria, Humm, China Shengmu

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>ECM developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/metis-techbio-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:48022:1" rel="noopener">Metis TechBio (MTB HK)</a> has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$270 million.</li>
<li>Event-Driven developments: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kakaku-com-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7408:1" rel="noopener">Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlantic-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40322:1" rel="noopener">Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/atlas-arteria-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14430:1" rel="noopener">Atlas Arteria (ALX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/european-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10716:1" rel="noopener">European Lithium (EUR AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shengmu-organic-milk-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12714:1" rel="noopener">China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK)</a>.
</li>
</ul>


A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
ECM developments: Metis TechBio (MTB HK) has launched an HKEx IPO to raise US$270 million.
Event-Driven developments: Kakaku.com Inc (2371 JP), Atlantic Lithium (A11 AU), Atlas Arteria (ALX AU), European Lithium (EUR AU), Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU), China Shengmu Organic Milk (1432 HK).



Weekly Deals Digest (10 May) - Kakaku, Atlantic Lithium, Atlas, European Lithium, Vault, Shengmu

<ul>
<li>Despite <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mitsubishi-pencil-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3719:1" rel="noopener">Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP)</a>'s shoicking governance, unless you are willing to fight it in court (and probably lose), the right thing to do here is buy on weakness.</li>
<li>Assuming <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a>'s A-share listing of its renewable energy unit unfolds,  there remains material upside here. </li>
<li>Perhaps <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison (1 HK)</a> now views the (required) high forward spending on VodafoneThree to secure this "golden ticket" no longer makes commercial sense</li>
</ul>


Despite Mitsubishi Pencil (7976 JP)'s shoicking governance, unless you are willing to fight it in court (and probably lose), the right thing to do here is buy on weakness.
Assuming China Resources Power (836 HK)'s A-share listing of its renewable energy unit unfolds,  there remains material upside here. 
Perhaps CK Hutchison (1 HK) now views the (required) high forward spending on VodafoneThree to secure this "golden ticket" no longer makes commercial sense


Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsubishi Pencil, China Resources Power, CK Hutchison, Guoco

<ul>
<li>I see <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guoco-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5290:1" rel="noopener">Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)</a>'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. </li>
<li>~67%-Held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a> (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a> at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". </li>
<li>It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.</li>
</ul>


I see Guoco Group Ltd (53 HK)'s implied stub at around a decade low. And a trailing P/B of 0.34x, versus the five-year average of 0.4x. 
~67%-Held GuocoLand (GUOL SP) (trading at 0.64x P/B) looks set to privatise ~68%-held Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK) at ~0.55x P/B, further adding to Guoco's look-through "cheapness". 
It's coming up to eight years since the Quek family last attempted to take Guoco private. I can see the family stepping up here.


Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-malaysia-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16496:1" rel="noopener">Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)</a>/GLM IA has opined that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guocoland-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17467:1" rel="noopener">GuocoLand (GUOL SP)</a>’s RM1.10 offer is NOT fair but reasonable. The IA values GLM at RM2.96 per share.</li>
<li>The key conditions are the headcount test (majority in number) and the value test (approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders, with rejection by &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders).</li>
<li>Due to the lack of a blocking stake and the Board's recommendation that shareholders vote YES, the vote remains low-risk. The gross/annualised spread for an end-of-July payment is 2.8%/12.0%.</li>
</ul>


The Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK)/GLM IA has opined that GuocoLand (GUOL SP)’s RM1.10 offer is NOT fair but reasonable. The IA values GLM at RM2.96 per share.
The key conditions are the headcount test (majority in number) and the value test (approval by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders, with rejection by &lt;10% of all disinterested shareholders).
Due to the lack of a blocking stake and the Board's recommendation that shareholders vote YES, the vote remains low-risk. The gross/annualised spread for an end-of-July payment is 2.8%/12.0%.


Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK): IA Opines NOT Fair but Reasonable; Vote on 29 May

Singapore

GuocoLand is an investment holding company focused on property development, investment, and management across residential, commercial, retail, hospitality, and integrated properties. The company also rents properties, operates hotels, and provides related management and marketing services. Headquartered in Singapore, GuocoLand was incorporated in 1976.

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GuocoLand (GUOL SP)

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Regis/Vault, Atlantic Lithium, Atlas Arteria, Humm, China Shengmu

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Weekly Deals Digest (10 May) - Kakaku, Atlantic Lithium, Atlas, European Lithium, Vault, Shengmu

A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, NZ, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia,...

Arun George

Last Week In Event SPACE: Mitsubishi Pencil, China Resources Power, CK Hutchison, Guoco

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Guoco (53 HK): Still Deep Value. Still Illiquid

Guoco remains a potential privatisation play; and/or a deep value play. I see the implied stub - net of the key listcos - around a decade low. The...

David Blennerhassett

Guocoland Malaysia (GUOL MK): IA Opines NOT Fair but Reasonable; Vote on 29 May

Due to the lack of a blocking stake and the Board's recommendation that shareholders vote YES, the vote remains low-risk. The gross/annualised...

Arun George

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