Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Guangzhou Automobile Group / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. AH Premia have not moved much this week (or last).</li>
<li>Average AH pairwise volatility has started to drop sharply. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Still room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Continuing differences in opinion between onshore and offshore opinion regarding the vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend and jump in.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes continue to be traded on the mainland share markets. AH Premia have not moved much this week (or last).
Average AH pairwise volatility has started to drop sharply. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Still room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Continuing differences in opinion between onshore and offshore opinion regarding the vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend and jump in.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Oct 2024): AH Premia Curve Shift, Wide Premia Brokers Bounce

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.</li>
<li>Highest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/seven-i-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1041:1" rel="noopener">Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-henlius-biotech-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27888:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shinko-electric-industries" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15066:1" rel="noopener">Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP),</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/arcadium-lithium-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:40438:1" rel="noopener">Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU)</a>. </li>
<li>Lowest spreads: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/trancom-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13043:1" rel="noopener">Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/silverlake-axis-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14150:1" rel="noopener">Silverlake Axis (SILV SP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/t-gaia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8339:1" rel="noopener">T Gaia Corp (3738 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/descente-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8225:1" rel="noopener">Descente Ltd (8114 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pasco-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7273:1" rel="noopener">Pasco Corp (9232 JP)</a>. 
</li>
</ul>


We summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
Highest spreads: Seven &amp; I Holdings (3382 JP), Shanghai Henlius Biotech (2696 HK), Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP),Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Arcadium Lithium (LTM AU). 
Lowest spreads: Trancom Co Ltd (9058 JP), Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), Silverlake Axis (SILV SP), T Gaia Corp (3738 JP), Descente Ltd (8114 JP), Pasco Corp (9232 JP). 



Merger Arb Mondays (21 Oct) - Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Henlius, Canvest, GA Pack, Dyna-Mac

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.3% as of Oct 18th.</li>
<li>The average A-H premium changed by 3.8ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financials and offset by health care.</li>
<li>We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for TSINGTAO, Goldwind, HAITONG, Guotai Junan Securities, Haohai, FMSH.</li>
</ul>


We analyse the changes of A-H premium on 149 stocks over the last week. The average A-H premium was 98.3% as of Oct 18th.
The average A-H premium changed by 3.8ppt week-on-week, led by consumer discretionary, consumer staples, financials and offset by health care.
We highlight weekly changes in A-H premium for TSINGTAO, Goldwind, HAITONG, Guotai Junan Securities, Haohai, FMSH.


A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 18th):TSINGTAO, Goldwind, HAITONG, Guotai Junan Securities, Haohai, FMSH

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>
Couche-Tard execs do the rounds in Tokyo, complaining about not being able to do the rounds. This sounds like they are trying to make themselves sound nice. For now</li>
<li>First the low-balled VTOs for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advanced-info-service-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:947:1" rel="noopener">AIS (ADVANC TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/thaicom-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18019:1" rel="noopener">Thaicom (THCOM TB)</a>. Then the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intouch-holdings-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17638:1" rel="noopener">Intouch (INTUCH TB)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gulf-energy-development-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26038:1" rel="noopener">Gulf Energy (GULF TB)</a> amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.</li>
<li>Investors buying <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samty-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:43711:1" rel="noopener">SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP)</a> in size may withhold shares, either they'll try to become the fulcrum investor to get into the Bidco OR they will try for a bump.</li>
</ul>



Couche-Tard execs do the rounds in Tokyo, complaining about not being able to do the rounds. This sounds like they are trying to make themselves sound nice. For now
First the low-balled VTOs for AIS (ADVANC TB) and Thaicom (THCOM TB). Then the Intouch (INTUCH TB)/Gulf Energy (GULF TB) amalgamation. Then, arguably, the next unorthodox development will take place.
Investors buying SAMTY HOLDINGS (187A JP) in size may withhold shares, either they'll try to become the fulcrum investor to get into the Bidco OR they will try for a bump.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

<ul>
<li>Huge volumes traded on the mainland, Southbound volumes dropped, AH Premia contracted a little bit, but not much. Things are starting to stabilise.</li>
<li>Average AH pairwise volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.</li>
<li>Continuing different onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.</li>
</ul>


Huge volumes traded on the mainland, Southbound volumes dropped, AH Premia contracted a little bit, but not much. Things are starting to stabilise.
Average AH pairwise volatility is super high. Intracorrelation of spreads quite low. Lots of room to market-make wide spreads/high premia. High premia may continue to contract on speculation.
Continuing different onshore and offshore opinion regarding the nature and vibe of Chinese stimulus will continue to lead to interesting dispersion. Identify the trend, then market make around it.


A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

China

Guotai Junan Securities Co.,Ltd. provides financial services. The Company offers corporate finance, fixed income securities, asset management, risk management, and other services. Guotai Junan Securities Company serves clients throughout China.

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Guotai Junan Securities (601211 CH)

A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 Oct 2024): AH Premia Curve Shift, Wide Premia Brokers Bounce

AH Premia were somewhat quiet overall for the second week in a row. Wide spreads saw Hs outperform. Narrow spreads saw As outperform. Brokers H...

Travis Lundy

Merger Arb Mondays (21 Oct) - Seven & I, Fuji Soft, Henlius, Canvest, GA Pack, Dyna-Mac

This week, the highest gross spreads are Seven & I (22.9%), Henlius (9.6%), Shinko Electric (8.2%, Canvest (7.0%), Arcadium Lithium (5.8%),...

Arun George

A-H Premium Weekly (Oct 18th):TSINGTAO, Goldwind, HAITONG, Guotai Junan Securities, Haohai, FMSH

We analyzed A-H premium changes in the past week and highlight A-H premium changes for TSINGTAO, Goldwind, HAITONG, Guotai Junan Securities,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Last Week in Event SPACE: Seven & I/Couche-Tard, Intouch, SAMTY, Korea Zinc/Young Poong

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

A/H Premium Tracker (To 18 Oct 2024): AH Premia Drop Sharply; High Premia May Contract More

AH Pair Premia start to settle down as an average but there is a lot of dispersion still across names and sectors. It's a great time to have an...

Travis Lundy

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