Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $134-135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold</li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $134-135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold


Upgrading Spain to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break; Buys in Discretionary, Financials, Materials

<ul>
<li>We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.</li>
<li>After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. </li>
</ul>


We had a near-term bullish outlook on MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) from 4/22/25 to 11/18/25.
After being near-term neutral for a week, we flipped back to bullish in our 11/25/25 Compass, all while maintaining our intermediate-term bullish outlook (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX and $135.70 on ACWI-US continue to hold. 


"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

Asia Real Estate News Tracker, Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate Tracker

Asia Real Estate News Tracker

Tracking developments across Asia's regional real estate markets

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Mori Trust has purchased the lower section of a Manhattan skyscraper for $541 million, indicating strong investment activity in prime real estate.</li><li>Emperor International sold a Wan Chai office block to OCBC at a significant 27% discount compared to its 2013 price, reflecting market adjustments.</li><li>China's H World Hotels reported a 15% profit increase in Q3, showcasing successful expansion efforts amid a broader decline in home sales.</li></ul>

Mori Trust has purchased the lower section of a Manhattan skyscraper for $541 million, indicating strong investment activity in prime real estate.Emperor International sold a Wan Chai office block to OCBC at a significant 27% discount compared to its 2013 price, reflecting market adjustments.China's H World Hotels reported a 15% profit increase in Q3, showcasing successful expansion efforts amid a broader decline in home sales.

Asia Real Estate Tracker (19-Nov-2025): Mori Trust acquires half of Manhattan skyscraper for $541M.

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. </li>
<li>The Chinese airlines, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shanghai-electric-group-company-limited-d542164d-4d5a-4ce0-b33e-5fe6bc34722c" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8777:1" rel="noopener">Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sany-heavy-equipment-intl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11104:1" rel="noopener">Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel International Investment (308 HK)</a> exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. </li>
<li>Container shipping and trade-related companies like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-cosco-holdings-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:286:1" rel="noopener">COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/orient-overseas-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:801:1" rel="noopener">Orient Overseas International (316 HK)</a> are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.</li>
</ul>


1H25 earnings of our coverage are generally weaker than expected, with a 5.9% growth; for 2H25, the consensus forecasts point to a further slowdown to 4%. 
The Chinese airlines, Shanghai Electric Group (2727 HK), Sany Heavy Equipment (631 HK), and China Travel International Investment (308 HK) exhibit the best YoY growth in 2H25. 
Container shipping and trade-related companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings (1919 HK), and Orient Overseas International (316 HK) are expected to see earnings plunge in 2H25.


China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

<ul>
<li>For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. </li>
<li>The best growth rates are at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-international-capital-corporation-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1071:1" rel="noopener">CICC (3908 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-capital-international-airport-bcia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10626:1" rel="noopener">Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tongcheng-travel-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27363:1" rel="noopener">Tongcheng Travel (780 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sitc-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15301:1" rel="noopener">SITC Intl (1308 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>The worst ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-travel-international-investment-hong-kong" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3879:1" rel="noopener">China Travel Intl (308 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cosco-shipping-energy-tran-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:646:1" rel="noopener">Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-southern-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1078:1" rel="noopener">China Southern Airlines (1055 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">CTG Duty Free (1880 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pacific-basin-shipping-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:929:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Basin (2343 HK)</a>. </li>
</ul>


For 1H25, the companies under our coverage will report a 16.8% earnings growth. Breaking down by quarter, 2Q25 growth will accelerate to 30.8%, from 14.1% in 1Q25. 
The best growth rates are at China National Building Material (3323 HK), CICC (3908 HK), Beijing Capital Intl Airport (694 HK), Tongcheng Travel (780 HK), and SITC Intl (1308 HK). 
The worst ones are China Travel Intl (308 HK), Cosco Shipping Energy Transp (1138 HK), China Southern Airlines (1055 HK), CTG Duty Free (1880 HK), and Pacific Basin (2343 HK). 


China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

China

H World Group is a leading global hospitality company that manages a diverse portfolio of hotel brands, ranging from economy to luxury segments. It provides quality accommodation and hospitality experiences through its leased and owned, manachised, and franchised hotel models. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Jiading District, Shanghai, China.

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H World Group (1179 HK)

Upgrading Spain to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break; Buys in Discretionary, Financials, Materials

Upgrading Spain $EWP to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break $EEM $VWO; Lows likely "in" on $SPX and $ACWI; Buys Focused in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Asia Real Estate Tracker (19-Nov-2025): Mori Trust acquires half of Manhattan skyscraper for $541M.

Mori Trust bought a Manhattan skyscraper for $541M, Emperor International sold a Wan Chai office at a 27% discount, while CDL negotiates a mall...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Upgrading Spain to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break; Buys in Discretionary, Financials, Materials

Upgrading Spain $EWP to Overweight; EM Uptrend Break $EEM $VWO; Lows likely "in" on $SPX and $ACWI; Buys Focused in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

"Lockout Rally" Underway; Downgrading China to Market Weight; Weak U.S. Dollar Is Risk-On Signal

"Lockout Rally" Underway $ACWI; Downgrading China $MCHI $FXI to Market Weight; U.S. Dollar (DXY) Providing Significant Risk-On Signal. Remain...

Vermilion Research

Asia Real Estate Tracker (19-Nov-2025): Mori Trust acquires half of Manhattan skyscraper for $541M.

Mori Trust bought a Manhattan skyscraper for $541M, Emperor International sold a Wan Chai office at a 27% discount, while CDL negotiates a mall...

Asia Real Estate Tracker

China Strategy: 1H25 Roundup and Implications for 2H25

​1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China & HK Strategy: 1H25 Preview - Where Are the Upside and Downside Surprises?

The companies under our coverage are expected to report 16.8% earnings growth for 1H25, with 2Q25 accelerating to 30.8%. Top performers include...

Osbert Tang, CFA

1H25 earnings weaker than expected with 5.9% growth; 2H25 forecasts show further slowdown to 4%. Chinese airlines and trade-related companies...