Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>There is <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> buyback risk that might cause <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)</a>/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> has consistently traded through <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oversea-chinese-banking-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:114:1" rel="noopener">OCBC (OCBC SP)</a>'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. </li>
</ul>


There is Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) buyback risk that might cause Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)/JPB unwinds; though probably a H2 risk.

Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) has consistently traded through OCBC (OCBC SP)'s Offer terms. Someone appears to be accumulating a stake to block an Exit/Delisting Offer, and force a bump.

L'Occitane (973 HK)'s scrip pre-condition has been satisfied. But still the Offeror prevaricates. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

<ul>
<li>Tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.</li>
<li>Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/malaysia-airports-holdings-bhd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:117:1" rel="noopener">Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/i-rom-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2686:1" rel="noopener">I'Rom Group (2372 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-line-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8076:1" rel="noopener">S Line (9078 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a> also in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huafa-property-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5841:1" rel="noopener">Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kansai-super-market-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15519:1" rel="noopener">Kansai Super Market (9919 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/great-eastern-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13993:1" rel="noopener">Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/l-occitane-international-sa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6772:1" rel="noopener">L'Occitane (973 HK)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Tally 51 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Inside is a timetable of upcoming key events for each deal.
Three new deals was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK), I'Rom Group (2372 JP) and S Line (9078 JP). ESR Group (1821 HK) also in the crosshairs. 
Key updates took place on: Huafa Property Services Group (982 HK), Kansai Super Market (9919 JP) , Great Eastern Holdings (GE SP) and L'Occitane (973 HK).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ESR Group, I'Rom Group, S Line, Huafa Property Services, Kansai Super Market

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Two of the biggest department store chains in Japan, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2 O Retailing (8242 JP)</a> &amp; <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/isetan-mitsukoshi-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18871:1" rel="noopener">Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP)</a> are set to disclose FQ3 earnings this week.</li>
<li>The ones with FQ3 ending in November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/j-front-retailing-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8947:1" rel="noopener">J Front Retailing (3086 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> surprised to the upside with 6% and 8% price gains on earnings.</li>
<li>Our analysis indicates that H2O Retailing &amp; Isetan Mitsukoshi could deliver stronger FQ3 results. Thus, we would look to trade Japanese Department Stores before earnings this week.</li>
</ul>


Two of the biggest department store chains in Japan, H2 O Retailing (8242 JP) &amp; Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings Ltd (3099 JP) are set to disclose FQ3 earnings this week.
The ones with FQ3 ending in November, J Front Retailing (3086 JP) and Takashimaya (8233 JP) surprised to the upside with 6% and 8% price gains on earnings.
Our analysis indicates that H2O Retailing &amp; Isetan Mitsukoshi could deliver stronger FQ3 results. Thus, we would look to trade Japanese Department Stores before earnings this week.


Japanese Department Stores: An Opportunity to Trade FQ3 Earnings This Week

<ul>
<li>YFO has played a relatively upfront game for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyo-construction-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1176:1" rel="noopener">Toyo Construction (1890 JP)</a> - badly at first, then better. </li>
<li>With <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/takashimaya-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:370:1" rel="noopener">Takashimaya (8233 JP)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/h2o-retailing-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17562:1" rel="noopener">H2O (8242 JP)</a> now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/skyworth-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10941:1" rel="noopener">Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)</a>'s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it's likely to be 13%+.</li>
</ul>


YFO has played a relatively upfront game for Toyo Construction (1890 JP) - badly at first, then better. 
With Takashimaya (8233 JP) and H2O (8242 JP) now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.

Skyworth Group Limited (751 HK)'s latest buyback offers a minimum proration of 7.8%, although applying the last buyback two years ago, it's likely to be 13%+.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

<ul>
<li>Takashimaya and H2O Retailing entered what felt like a forced engagement of convenience in 2008 when all their other competitors were busy merging.</li>
<li>Although discussions for a full merger were held, in truth, thea agreement was more about practical collaboration to create more efficiencies. </li>
<li>With both firms now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.</li>
</ul>


Takashimaya and H2O Retailing entered what felt like a forced engagement of convenience in 2008 when all their other competitors were busy merging.
Although discussions for a full merger were held, in truth, thea agreement was more about practical collaboration to create more efficiencies. 
With both firms now more secure and cross-shareholdings more problematic, they will sell off their equity in each other but continue to work on joint projects.


Japan

H2O RETAILING CORPORATION founded in Osaka in 1929, operates railway terminal department stores.  The Company's main store is located at Hankyu terminal in Umeda (Osaka) and sells clothing, foods, sundry goods, furniture, and household utensils.  H2O Retailing also operates restaurants and coffee shops.

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H2O Retailing (8242 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post, Great Eastern, Malaysia Airports, L'Occitane

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: ESR Group, I'Rom Group, S Line, Huafa Property Services, Kansai Super Market

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Japanese Department Stores: An Opportunity to Trade FQ3 Earnings This Week

Japanese department stores, especially the ones reporting 3QFY23 this week are having a good time after many years. With costs falling back towards...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyo, Takashimaya/H2O, Skyworth, Shandong Fengxiang, O2Micro

The long weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Takashimaya and H2O Cancel Tie-Up

Takashimaya and H2O Retailing originally discussed merger in 2008 at the height of department store defensive measures but never really committed....

Michael Causton

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