Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Hokkoku Financial Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.</li>
<li>The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. </li>
<li>But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.</li>
</ul>


Japanese banks have been in a relative sweetspot for a couple of years. Higher rates, higher inflation, more FX volatility, better earnings, stronger buybacks. Cross-holding sales up but not spectacular.
The BOJ may raise rates but Trump Tariff retaliation/mitigation is a question. Elections the next two weeks and earnings the 2-3 weeks after that may keep things a question. 
But buybacks should pick up. Lots announced in spring end at or before Q1 earnings. And I expect substantial new buybacks to be announced throughout the from Q1 results on.


[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

Financials & FinTech research, Galliano’s Financials Research

Victor Galliano

Financials & FinTech research

Financials & FinTech, EM & Developed Markets

Galliano’s Financials Research

Galliano's Financials Research provides fundamental research in Emerging Markets financials, including FinTech, as well as financials in select Developed Markets.

The investment style applied is generally value oriented, although Growth At Reasonable Price (GARP) strategies can also be used where appropriate. 

Our investment research approach aim is often contrarian, looking to capitalise on overly sceptical or optimistic consensus views. In terms of valuation techniques, the focus is on PBV ratio to ROE, PE multiples and dividend yield, as well as the application of PEG ratios and, where appropriate, Sum of the Parts (SOTP) valuations.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Our key themes for Japanese banks in 2026 are top line growth due to a hawkish BoJ and the potential for shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals</li>
<li>In the big caps, we stick with Resona Holdings as our top pick for its strong gearing to rising interest rates and its relatively high equity cross-holdings to market value</li>
<li>Our top mid-caps picks are Iyogin Holdings and Hokuhoku, both of which are well positioned to benefit from higher interest rates and also have healthy cross-holdings relative to market value</li>
</ul>


Our key themes for Japanese banks in 2026 are top line growth due to a hawkish BoJ and the potential for shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals
In the big caps, we stick with Resona Holdings as our top pick for its strong gearing to rising interest rates and its relatively high equity cross-holdings to market value
Our top mid-caps picks are Iyogin Holdings and Hokuhoku, both of which are well positioned to benefit from higher interest rates and also have healthy cross-holdings relative to market value


Japanese Banks – 2026 High Conviction Ideas

<ul>
<li>We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks targeting attractively valued beneficiaries of the realization of big strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook</li>
<li>We re-iterate our buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial; there is potential to realize their large strategic holdings relative to their market capitalizations combined with their attractive PTBV ratios</li>
<li>We take Gunma Bank off the buy list, replacing it with Iyogin; Iyogin has a constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations and healthy gearing to higher interest rates</li>
</ul>


We update our views on ten Japanese midcap banks targeting attractively valued beneficiaries of the realization of big strategic shareholdings, as well as beneficiaries of the improving interest rate outlook
We re-iterate our buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial; there is potential to realize their large strategic holdings relative to their market capitalizations combined with their attractive PTBV ratios
We take Gunma Bank off the buy list, replacing it with Iyogin; Iyogin has a constructive mix of large strategic holdings, attractive valuations and healthy gearing to higher interest rates


Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

<ul>
<li>Along with political turbulence, expectations of a near term BoJ rate hike may be diminishing; nonetheless, we believe that these rate hikes will, at worst, be delayed and not derailed</li>
<li>We take profits on Mizuho in big caps and on Hirogin Holdings in mid-caps, downgrading these names from buy to neutral whilst generally retaining banks with higher levels of cross-holdings</li>
<li>We maintain the following Japanese banks on buy ratings; in the big-caps, we keep Resona and Shizuoka and in the mid-caps we stick with Iyogin Holdings, Hokuhoku and Hachijuni</li>
</ul>


Along with political turbulence, expectations of a near term BoJ rate hike may be diminishing; nonetheless, we believe that these rate hikes will, at worst, be delayed and not derailed
We take profits on Mizuho in big caps and on Hirogin Holdings in mid-caps, downgrading these names from buy to neutral whilst generally retaining banks with higher levels of cross-holdings
We maintain the following Japanese banks on buy ratings; in the big-caps, we keep Resona and Shizuoka and in the mid-caps we stick with Iyogin Holdings, Hokuhoku and Hachijuni


Japanese Banks – We Clip Our Key Positive Picks in the Big-Caps and Mid-Caps

<ul>
<li>We incorporate our scorecard into this report covering ten Japanese midcap banks and we also introduce trailing twelve month return trends for the midcaps</li>
<li>Iyogin Holdings remains a buy, which tops pre-provision returns and has large strategic cross-holdings; Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank are also buys with these occupying the top three scorecard rankings</li>
<li>We add Hirogin Holdings to the buy list; it is deep value among the peer group, with its premium earnings and dividend yield and its attractive ROE to PBV ratio</li>
</ul>


We incorporate our scorecard into this report covering ten Japanese midcap banks and we also introduce trailing twelve month return trends for the midcaps
Iyogin Holdings remains a buy, which tops pre-provision returns and has large strategic cross-holdings; Hokuhoku Financial and Hachijuni Bank are also buys with these occupying the top three scorecard rankings
We add Hirogin Holdings to the buy list; it is deep value among the peer group, with its premium earnings and dividend yield and its attractive ROE to PBV ratio


Japanese Midcap Banks – Introducing the Scorecard and Quarterly Return Trends

Japan

The Hachijuni Bank, Ltd. is a regional bank based in Nagano Prefecture. The Bank provides banking services such as deposits, loans, foreign exchange transactions, and trust accounts. The Bank also provides financial services such as leasing, credit cards, credit guarantee, debt recovery, trading, and venture capital and operates branches overseas.

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Hachijuni Bank (8359 JP)

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Banks – 2026 High Conviction Ideas

Japanese banks in 2026 should see top line growth from hawkish BoJ, shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals; Resona top pick...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Banks – We Clip Our Key Positive Picks in the Big-Caps and Mid-Caps

With easier-for-longer monetary policy in Japan being a growing risk, we keep buys on select big and mid-cap banks with big equity cross-holdings,...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Midcap Banks – Introducing the Scorecard and Quarterly Return Trends

In this Japanese midcap banks report, we maintain Iyogin Holdings, Hokuhoku Financial, and Hachijuni Bank as top buys, adding Hirogin Holdings to...

Victor Galliano

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Japan Buybacks] - Japan Bank Metrics, Cross-Holdings and Banks Part 1

This is the first of several episodes regarding Japanese Banks. I want to make the size palatable and offer base data and framework with which to...

Travis Lundy

Japanese Banks – 2026 High Conviction Ideas

​Japanese banks in 2026 should see top line growth from hawkish BoJ, shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals; Resona top pick...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Midcap Banks – Hachijuni (8359 JP) Is Our Top Pick

​Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Banks – We Clip Our Key Positive Picks in the Big-Caps and Mid-Caps

​With easier-for-longer monetary policy in Japan being a growing risk, we keep buys on select big and mid-cap banks with big equity cross-holdings,...

Victor Galliano

Japanese Midcap Banks – Introducing the Scorecard and Quarterly Return Trends

​In this Japanese midcap banks report, we maintain Iyogin Holdings, Hokuhoku Financial, and Hachijuni Bank as top buys, adding Hirogin Holdings to...

Victor Galliano

Japanese banks in 2026 should see top line growth from hawkish BoJ, shareholder value creation through cross-holding disposals; Resona top pick...

Japanese midcap banks: stick with buys on Hachijuni Bank and Hokuhoku Financial, replacing Gunma Bank with Iyogin for potential gains from equity...

With easier-for-longer monetary policy in Japan being a growing risk, we keep buys on select big and mid-cap banks with big equity cross-holdings,...

In this Japanese midcap banks report, we maintain Iyogin Holdings, Hokuhoku Financial, and Hachijuni Bank as top buys, adding Hirogin Holdings to...