Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas, CrossASEAN Research

Henry Soediarko

Asian Insight Provider - Actionable ideas

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The Chinese government and the destination countries have publicly stated that they can visit each other.</li>
<li>Higher ridership is the main result of this theme while consumption could also accelerate but on-the-ground research has proven Chinese tourists are not there yet. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/comfortdelgro-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:497:1" rel="noopener">Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/airports-of-thailand-pcl" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:239:1" rel="noopener">Airports of Thailand (AOT TB)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mtr-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13289:1" rel="noopener">MTR Corp (66 HK)</a> are the main transport beneficiaries.</li>
</ul>


The Chinese government and the destination countries have publicly stated that they can visit each other.
Higher ridership is the main result of this theme while consumption could also accelerate but on-the-ground research has proven Chinese tourists are not there yet. 

Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) , Comfortdelgro Corp (CD SP) , Airports of Thailand (AOT TB) and MTR Corp (66 HK) are the main transport beneficiaries.


HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

<ul>
<li>Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. </li>
<li>A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.</li>
<li>Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.</li>
</ul>


Although 5% GDP growth target for 2023 is at the low end of market speculation of 5.5-6%, we think this reflects the government's conservative stance amid post-COVID recovery. 
A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a special purpose bond quota of Rmb3.8trn suggested that government spending will stay as important economic driver.
Consumption is another major stimulus for economic growth, and more supportive measures will be rolled out - we have seen many cities planning to hand out consumption vouchers.


China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Big Catering International Holding / Equity Capital Markets

Big Catering International Holding (BCI HK)

<ul>
<li>The advantage of Big Catering lies in its differentiated Buffet model, but its disadvantage is "heavy asset" model, which results in significant lagging behind in cost control and expansion speed.</li>
<li>The core of low net profit margin stems from the rigid pressure of cost structure.If Big Catering wants to expand southward, it will face intense competition and high education costs.</li>
<li>Big Catering has very limited room for downward adjustment in its pricing strategy. Valuation would be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domino-s-pizza-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6436:1" rel="noopener">Domino's Pizza</a>, but higher than that of traditional restaurants with slow growth.</li>
</ul>


The advantage of Big Catering lies in its differentiated Buffet model, but its disadvantage is "heavy asset" model, which results in significant lagging behind in cost control and expansion speed.
The core of low net profit margin stems from the rigid pressure of cost structure.If Big Catering wants to expand southward, it will face intense competition and high education costs.
Big Catering has very limited room for downward adjustment in its pricing strategy. Valuation would be lower than Domino's Pizza, but higher than that of traditional restaurants with slow growth.


Pre-IPO Big Catering International Holding - The Business Model, the Pain Points and the Outlook

<ul>
<li>While China's U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.</li>
<li>Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.</li>
<li>It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&amp;B stocks like <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haidilao-international-holding-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27044:1" rel="noopener">Haidilao (6862 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/xiabuxiabu-catering-mgt-chn-hldgs-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:76:1" rel="noopener">Xiabuxiabu (520 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/helen-s-international-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34113:1" rel="noopener">Helen's (9869 HK)</a> which have almost doubled from trough.</li>
</ul>


While China's U-turn on COVID policy is expected to bring consumption rebound in 2023, the near-term surge in infections will weigh negatively on retail sales in Dec and Jan.
Residents are spending more time at home in the first wave, with subways and shopping malls empty. We think this will cast negativity on 4Q22 and 1Q23 consumer discretionary profit.
It is prudent to take some monies off the table, particularly F&amp;B stocks like Haidilao (6862 HK), Xiabuxiabu (520 HK) and Helen's (9869 HK) which have almost doubled from trough.


China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

<ul>
<li>China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.</li>
<li>The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. </li>
<li>Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  </li>
</ul>


China's twists in its COVID combating measures are positive to the economy as many quarantine requirements are relaxed and secondary contacts are not identified and traced.
The latest change should bring more spending confidence to the consumers, and this will benefit consumer discretionary companies in the retail and F&amp;B sectors. 
Relaxed quarantine requirements are positive to the travel and hospitality companies. Chinese airlines and international air tickets have seen immediate demand surge after the announcement.  


China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

China

Haidilao International Holding Ltd. is an investment holding company primarily operating a popular Chinese hot pot restaurant chain under the Haidilao brand. The company also engages in delivery services and the sale of condiment products and food ingredients. It was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Beijing, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Haidilao (6862 HK)

China Tourists Coming Back: Transport

Chinese tourists are permitted to travel overseas and the destination countries are prepared to welcome them but they are yet to be seen through my...

Henry Soediarko

China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a Rmb3.8trn special purpose bond quota suggested government spending will remain important economic driver. More...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pre-IPO Big Catering International Holding - The Business Model, the Pain Points and the Outlook

Big Catering's Buffet model offers differentiation, but heavy asset model leads to cost control issues and slow expansion, limited pricing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

Near-term negative impact of China's U-turn in COVID policy on consumer discretionary has been underestimated by the market. It is prudent to take...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

The refined COVID combating measures in China is welcoming and should benefit the consumer discretionary, travel and hospitality and airlines...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

China Tourists Coming Back: Transport

Chinese tourists are permitted to travel overseas and the destination countries are prepared to welcome them but they are yet to be seen through my...

Henry Soediarko

China NPC: Implications of Government Working Report 2023

A 0.2pp higher budget deficit and a Rmb3.8trn special purpose bond quota suggested government spending will remain important economic driver. More...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Pre-IPO Big Catering International Holding - The Business Model, the Pain Points and the Outlook

​Big Catering's Buffet model offers differentiation, but heavy asset model leads to cost control issues and slow expansion, limited pricing...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

China COVID Policy: Near-Term Pains for Consumer Discretionary

Near-term negative impact of China's U-turn in COVID policy on consumer discretionary has been underestimated by the market. It is prudent to take...

Osbert Tang, CFA

China's Latest COVID Policy: What Are the Plays?

The refined COVID combating measures in China is welcoming and should benefit the consumer discretionary, travel and hospitality and airlines...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Big Catering's Buffet model offers differentiation, but heavy asset model leads to cost control issues and slow expansion, limited pricing...