Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>With the review cutoff done, there could be two changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ishares-china-large-cap-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:766:1" rel="noopener">iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US)</a> in March.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/guotai-junan-securities-co-ltd-5dfaf2c5-76d3-4f34-a77d-118787fd7091" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23752:1" rel="noopener">Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp H (763 HK)</a> are expected to replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-tourism-group-duty-free" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36229:1" rel="noopener">China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-coal-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:383:1" rel="noopener">China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zte-corp-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6922:1" rel="noopener">ZTE Corp H (763 HK)</a> has broken out to new highs (possibly on short covering) while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-coal-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:383:1" rel="noopener">China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK)</a> continues to sell off.</li>
</ul>


With the review cutoff done, there could be two changes for the iShares China Large-Cap (FXI) (FXI US) in March.

Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) and ZTE Corp H (763 HK) are expected to replace China Tourism Group Duty Free (1880 HK) and China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK). 

ZTE Corp H (763 HK) has broken out to new highs (possibly on short covering) while China Coal Energy Co H (1898 HK) continues to sell off.


FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Sets of Changes as ZTE Breaks Out, China Coal Dumps

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 58 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Four new deals discussed this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/domain-holdings-australia-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26033:1" rel="noopener">Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai International (2217 HK)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19415:1" rel="noopener">PEC Ltd. (PEC SP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/canvest-environmental-protection-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:100:1" rel="noopener">Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK)</a>,<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fuji-soft-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:17504:1" rel="noopener">Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/proto-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2511:1" rel="noopener">Proto Corp (4298 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 58 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Four new deals discussed this week: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Tam Jai International (2217 HK), and PEC Ltd. (PEC SP).
Key updates/news took place on: Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK),Fuji Soft Inc (9749 JP), and Proto Corp (4298 JP).


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Domain Holdings, Mayne Pharma, Tam Jai, PEC Ltd, Canvest, Fuji Soft, Proto

China National Building Material / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 6th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-national-building-ma-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:184:1" rel="noopener">China National Building Material (3323 HK)</a> (CNBM), China's leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>This elevated CNBM's parent's stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating  a whitewash waiver so the parent would not be obliged to make a full blown offer.  </li>
<li>Independent H-shareholder overwhelmingly approved the waiver yesterday, the 19th February. Tendering closes on the 5th March. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. I'm estimating at least 35%. The Offer is now unconditional.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th December 2024, China National Building Material (3323 HK) (CNBM), China's leading building materials company, offered to buy back 841,749,304 H-shares at HK$4.03/share, a 15.1% premium to undisturbed.
This elevated CNBM's parent's stake to 50.01% of total shares from 45.02% currently, necessitating  a whitewash waiver so the parent would not be obliged to make a full blown offer.  
Independent H-shareholder overwhelmingly approved the waiver yesterday, the 19th February. Tendering closes on the 5th March. Minimum pro-ration is 19.24%. I'm estimating at least 35%. The Offer is now unconditional.


CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pec-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19415:1" rel="noopener">PEC Ltd. (PEC SP)</a>, a plant and terminal engineering specialist, has (finally) announced an Offer from Allied Energy Services, an engineering entity under the Liberty Group.</li>
<li>Liberty is offering S$0.84/share (not final) - including a AS$0.20/share special  dividend - a 12.8% premium to undisturbed; but really more like a &gt;35% premium. </li>
<li>Irrevocables from the board of 63.38% have been secured. Looks pretty clean. Assuming late May payment, pay up to S$0.79/share for a 6%/15% gross/annualised spread. </li>
</ul>



PEC Ltd. (PEC SP), a plant and terminal engineering specialist, has (finally) announced an Offer from Allied Energy Services, an engineering entity under the Liberty Group.
Liberty is offering S$0.84/share (not final) - including a AS$0.20/share special  dividend - a 12.8% premium to undisturbed; but really more like a &gt;35% premium. 
Irrevocables from the board of 63.38% have been secured. Looks pretty clean. Assuming late May payment, pay up to S$0.79/share for a 6%/15% gross/annualised spread. 


PEC Ltd. (PEC SP): Privatisation Offer From Liberty Group

<ul>
<li>After <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tam-jai-international-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34227:1" rel="noopener">Tam Jai  (2217 HK)</a> was suspended, in <a href="https://skr.ma/uHXiV" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer</a> I expected an Offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toridoll-holdings-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8193:1" rel="noopener">TORIDOLL Holdings (3397 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>I also thought an Offer price ~HK$1.50/share would be welcome, but wasn't hopeful. We got both - a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0217/2025021701057.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Scheme</a> from Toridoll at HK$1.58/share (best &amp; final).</li>
<li>Clean deal. Just a question of timing. Docs may be delayed to incorporate FY25E (Mar Y/E) financials. </li>
</ul>


After Tam Jai  (2217 HK) was suspended, in Tam Jai (2217 HK) Suspended: Expect Toridoll (3397 JP) To Make An Offer I expected an Offer from TORIDOLL Holdings (3397 JP).
I also thought an Offer price ~HK$1.50/share would be welcome, but wasn't hopeful. We got both - a Scheme from Toridoll at HK$1.58/share (best &amp; final).
Clean deal. Just a question of timing. Docs may be delayed to incorporate FY25E (Mar Y/E) financials. 


Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)'s Excellent Offer

China

Haitong Securities Co., Ltd. offers securities services. The Company provides securities brokerage, asset management, securities investment, share transfer agency, and capital intermediary services. Haitong Securities focuses on  online brokerage, wealth management, and institutional investors.

Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)

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Haitong Securities Co Ltd (A) (600837 CH)

FXI Rebalance Preview: Two Sets of Changes as ZTE Breaks Out, China Coal Dumps

GTJA and ZTE could replace CTG Duty Free and China Coal in the FXI ETF in March. Alibaba and Tencent will be sold on capping, Meituan bought. ZTE...

Brian Freitas

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Domain Holdings, Mayne Pharma, Tam Jai, PEC Ltd, Canvest, Fuji Soft, Proto

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

CNBM (3323 HK): Whitewash Waiver Secured. Next Is The Proration

I'm inclined to simply short outright here, if I had guaranteed take-no-action borrow. Especially as the price closes in on the tender price, and...

David Blennerhassett

PEC Ltd. (PEC SP): Privatisation Offer From Liberty Group

This is done. If small, illliquid arbs are your bent, and assuming late May payment, I'd pay up to S$0.79/share for a gross/annualised return of 6%...

David Blennerhassett

Tam Jai (2217 HK): Toridoll (3397 JP)'s Excellent Offer

This is done. No competing Offer will emerge. If payment on or around mid-July, and small-cap arbs are your thing, I'd pay up to HK$1.49/share for...

David Blennerhassett

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