Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.</li>
<li>Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.</li>
<li>As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective</li>
</ul>


It appears the recent pullback is over, and we could see the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) test YTD highs at $93. We still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023.
Overweight Europe/UK and non-U.S., we are buyers on pullbacks as long as FTSE 100 is above 7700, STOXX Europe 50 is above 3800, and EURO STOXX 50 is above 4000.
As long as these support levels are holding, we are constructive from a price perspective


Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday 14 February, Dentsu announced bte profits, and guidance for 2022 which appears in-line to slightly strong in terms of revenue, slightly weak/conservative in terms of IFRS/GAAP OP.</li>
<li>The company also announced what appears to be a BIG buyback. </li>
<li>Looks are deceiving, but somehow not, but there are catches in both directions. If you have a flow axe, it is worth knowing the flow details.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday 14 February, Dentsu announced bte profits, and guidance for 2022 which appears in-line to slightly strong in terms of revenue, slightly weak/conservative in terms of IFRS/GAAP OP.
The company also announced what appears to be a BIG buyback. 
Looks are deceiving, but somehow not, but there are catches in both directions. If you have a flow axe, it is worth knowing the flow details.


Dentsu BIG Buyback - Both Larger and Smaller Than It Appears

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

<ul>
<li>Japan-Based advertising/marketing services company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hakuhodo-dy-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8736:1" rel="noopener">Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)</a> launched a Tender Offer to acquire all the shares in small-cap digital marketing company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/soldout-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35570:1" rel="noopener">SoldOut (6553 JP)</a> on 9th February 2022.</li>
<li>The TOB Price is ¥1,809 per share in cash which translates to an implied market capitalization of ¥19.5bn (~US$170mn) for the Target company - a 101% premium to previous close.</li>
<li>The Tender Offer has a minimum acceptance condition and is expected to be completed in March 2022. Below is a closer look at the Deal Details.</li>
</ul>


Japan-Based advertising/marketing services company Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP) launched a Tender Offer to acquire all the shares in small-cap digital marketing company SoldOut (6553 JP) on 9th February 2022.
The TOB Price is ¥1,809 per share in cash which translates to an implied market capitalization of ¥19.5bn (~US$170mn) for the Target company - a 101% premium to previous close.
The Tender Offer has a minimum acceptance condition and is expected to be completed in March 2022. Below is a closer look at the Deal Details.


High Premium Hakuhodo DY TOB for SoldOut (6553 JP) - Could Be a Catalyst for Digital Holding (2389)

<ul>
<li>Recruit announced a buyback of up to 34 million shares in an own share tender offer to take place at a price below the current market price.</li>
<li>This kind of tender offer is almost always meant for Japanese corporate holders as it rarely makes sense for others to participate.</li>
<li>This is mildly EPS accretive, BVPS decretive, quite ROE accretive, but Recruit can't really use this method for the rest of its cross-holdings.</li>
</ul>


Recruit announced a buyback of up to 34 million shares in an own share tender offer to take place at a price below the current market price.
This kind of tender offer is almost always meant for Japanese corporate holders as it rarely makes sense for others to participate.
This is mildly EPS accretive, BVPS decretive, quite ROE accretive, but Recruit can't really use this method for the rest of its cross-holdings.


<ul>
<li>On 11 November 2021, mobile ad platform provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/adways-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14696:1" rel="noopener">Adways Inc (2489 JP)</a><a href="https://ir.adways.net/irnews/20211111_222D3s.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced</a> a placement of treasury shares, and a small new share issuance to Hakuhodo DY totalling 3.6mm shares.</li>
<li>On 1 December 2021, the company announced a buyback of up to 6 million shares between here and May 2022.</li>
<li>That sets up an interesting offset of accretion and squeeze. And details matter.</li>
</ul>


On 11 November 2021, mobile ad platform provider Adways Inc (2489 JP)announced a placement of treasury shares, and a small new share issuance to Hakuhodo DY totalling 3.6mm shares.
On 1 December 2021, the company announced a buyback of up to 6 million shares between here and May 2022.
That sets up an interesting offset of accretion and squeeze. And details matter.


Adways (2489 JP) - A Dilutive Placement Before and a New Accretive Bigly Buyback

Japan

HAKUHODO DY HOLDINGS INCORPORATED is a holding company established through the merger of Hakuhodo Inc., Daiko Advertising Inc., and Yomiko Advertising Inc. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides comprehensive advertising services.

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Hakuhodo Dy Holdings (2433 JP)

Remain Overweight Europe/UK & Non-US Equities; Pullback Over?; Buys in Industrials and Financials

Remain overweight Europe/UK and non-US equities; we are buyers on pullbacks as long as the FTSE 100 is above 7700, the STOXX Europe 50 is above...

Vermilion Research

Dentsu BIG Buyback - Both Larger and Smaller Than It Appears

Dentsu (4324) announced earnings and a large buyback. That buyback is larger than it appears, but actually smaller, but then larger again, but it...

Travis Lundy

High Premium Hakuhodo DY TOB for SoldOut (6553 JP) - Could Be a Catalyst for Digital Holding (2389)

Hakuhodo launched a ~US170mn Tender Offer to acquire SoldOut. This looks like a done deal and could be a catalyst for SoldOut's current parent...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Recruit (6098) Buyback - Big, But Meh...

Recruit announced a buyback of up to 34 million shares in an own share tender offer to take place at a price near a 52-week low. Three major...

Travis Lundy

Adways (2489 JP) - A Dilutive Placement Before and a New Accretive Bigly Buyback

Adways announced a placement of shares earlier in November. It didn't need the money but Hakuhodo wanted to raise its stake. Now they have a buyback.

Travis Lundy

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