Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Energy remains one of the most structurally underowned sectors in the global universe — just 62.85% of funds invested, average weight down from 8% in 2012 to 2.23% today.</li>
<li>For the first time in years, every ownership metric is moving in the right direction — 14 new positions, 20 net buyers, and $2.79bn of estimated inflows in six months.</li>
<li>The buyer base is narrow — Value and Yield funds dominate, Growth less convinced.  Stock ownership is light, but newcomers are emerging.</li>
</ul>


Energy remains one of the most structurally underowned sectors in the global universe — just 62.85% of funds invested, average weight down from 8% in 2012 to 2.23% today.
For the first time in years, every ownership metric is moving in the right direction — 14 new positions, 20 net buyers, and $2.79bn of estimated inflows in six months.
The buyer base is narrow — Value and Yield funds dominate, Growth less convinced.  Stock ownership is light, but newcomers are emerging.


Global Energy: Short-Term Recovery or Structural Shift?

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Halliburton keeps beating estimates, but its EPS beats are shrinking while SLB converts better. Q3 looks priced in, so Q4 guidance will drive both stocks.</li>
<li>Halliburton must lift its C&amp;P margins by 125–175 bps after a Q2 miss. SLB's USD 10 billion revenue target hinges on Middle East revenue recovering.</li>
<li>SLB puts hedge just below spot with scattered upside calls; Halliburton is balanced, with little appetite for a rally.</li>
</ul>


Halliburton keeps beating estimates, but its EPS beats are shrinking while SLB converts better. Q3 looks priced in, so Q4 guidance will drive both stocks.
Halliburton must lift its C&amp;P margins by 125–175 bps after a Q2 miss. SLB's USD 10 billion revenue target hinges on Middle East revenue recovering.
SLB puts hedge just below spot with scattered upside calls; Halliburton is balanced, with little appetite for a rally.


SLB and Halliburton Q3 2026 Preview: Q4 Guidance Takes Centre Stage

Equity & Credit Research

Duncan Chan

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.</li>
<li>Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.</li>
<li>Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.</li>
</ul>


Potential de-escalation may compress risk premiums, but Treasury yields around 4.5–5.0% still compete with equities, suggesting broader participation may remain selective near term.
Aluminium increasingly stands out as inventories declined approximately 7–8% and physical conditions tightened, while copper remains broadly consistent with surplus expectations.
Evidence remains more supportive for energy security and infrastructure themes, including uranium, AI infrastructure and offshore rigs, while coal and lithium still require clearer signs of tightening.


US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.</li>
<li>RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight</li>
<li>We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of last week's 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). We discussed last week to add exposure to growth/Technology.
RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and we are upgrading Technology to overweight
We have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVDA, TSM, CIEN, etc.) and memory (SNDK, WDC, STX, MU) ever since our 6/17/25 Compass, and these remain our favorite areas within Tech.


Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.</li>
<li>We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.</li>
<li>Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).</li>
</ul>


We maintain our near-term bullish outlook on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), in place since 4/22/25, aside from one week when we flipped to neutral.
We will stay near-term bullish as long as crucial support levels of 6480-6520 on SPX, $580-$583 on QQQ, and $245 on IWM continue to hold.
Signs of impending upside are evident with the Russell 2000 and many Sectors/areas of the market breaking out (more on that below).


Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

United States

Halliburton Company provides energy services and engineering and construction services, as well as manufactures products for the energy industry.  The Company offers services and products and integrated solutions to customers in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas.

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Halliburton Co (HAL US)

Global Energy: Short-Term Recovery or Structural Shift?

Energy remains one of the most structurally underowned sectors in the global universe, but appetite for a larger allocation is growing

Steven Holden

SLB and Halliburton Q3 2026 Preview: Q4 Guidance Takes Centre Stage

Halliburton and SLB report back-to-back, with Q4 guidance likely to drive the market reaction. We examine margin recovery, Middle East exposure,...

Mint Finance

US-Iran De-Escalation: Looking Beyond Risk Premiums

Re-sharing as recent market developments continue to raise the question of whether fading geopolitical risk premiums alone are enough to support...

Duncan Chan

Upgrading Technology to Overweight; Adding on Any Pullbacks

Upgrading Technology $XLK to Overweight; Adding on Pullbacks. $NVDA $MU $CRWD $CDNS $CRML $UAMY $MP $LAC $SLB $BKR $HAL $ANDE $REX $GPRE $ALTO

Vermilion Research

Breakouts Continue: IWM, ARKK, SMH, URA, EEM, WGMI, NLR; Upgrading Discretionary to Market Weight

Breakouts on $IWM $ARKK $SMH $SOXX $URA $EEM $WGMI $DTCR $NLR $XLB $XLI $REMX $QTUM signal impending upside ahead; Upgrading Discretionary to...

Vermilion Research

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