Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Responding to clients' queries, we backtest our hypothesis of EPS estimate upgrades driving share prices. We measure price index movements in the sectors with EPS upgrades during the upgrade period.</li>
<li>Out of 32 market-sectors with EPS upgrades, share prices of 6 declined, that of 1 stayed flat and those of 25 appreciated. Our indicator has a roughly 80% strike rate.</li>
<li>The cheaper market-sectors appreciated much more than the quantum of EPS upgrades. The Korean sectors and few in Taiwan and ASEAN, notably. For cheap sectors, EPS upgrades are rerating catalysts.</li>
</ul>


Responding to clients' queries, we backtest our hypothesis of EPS estimate upgrades driving share prices. We measure price index movements in the sectors with EPS upgrades during the upgrade period.
Out of 32 market-sectors with EPS upgrades, share prices of 6 declined, that of 1 stayed flat and those of 25 appreciated. Our indicator has a roughly 80% strike rate.
The cheaper market-sectors appreciated much more than the quantum of EPS upgrades. The Korean sectors and few in Taiwan and ASEAN, notably. For cheap sectors, EPS upgrades are rerating catalysts.


Asian Equities: EPS Estimate Upgrades Do Drive Share Prices

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.</li>
<li>Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.</li>
<li>As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
</ul>


We discussed in last week's June 19 report how bullish price and RS trends on Israel's TA-125 was our tell that global equities were looking past Israel-Iran tensions.
Now completely in the rear-view mirror.  We also discussed how we were expecting short-term support on ACWI-US at $123-$123.50 (6.5-month base support), and ACWI-US bottomed at $123.20 on Monday.
As a result, we remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).


Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Sep 18th. The aggregated holding was USD1,670.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD8,838mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN, Doosan Enerbility.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Sep 18th. The aggregated holding was USD1,670.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD8,838mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN, Doosan Enerbility.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 18th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Since the last reshuffle (August 11), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 1.18%, against MXASJ's 0.92% advance. Since inception on May 15, 2025, our portfolio is up 44.9%, against MXASJ's 45.8%.</li>
<li>The main drivers of our portfolio were Korea (contributed 2.77% return) and Taiwan (0.34%). The returns were dragged down by China (-1.14%) and India (-0.66%).</li>
<li>We exclude Reliance Industries and include Hitachi Energy, reaffirming our preference for Indian industrials. Our overweight on HK/China, Korea, India and underweight on Taiwan (but preference for Taiwan technology) continues.</li>
</ul>


Since the last reshuffle (August 11), our Model Portfolio has appreciated 1.18%, against MXASJ's 0.92% advance. Since inception on May 15, 2025, our portfolio is up 44.9%, against MXASJ's 45.8%.
The main drivers of our portfolio were Korea (contributed 2.77% return) and Taiwan (0.34%). The returns were dragged down by China (-1.14%) and India (-0.66%).
We exclude Reliance Industries and include Hitachi Energy, reaffirming our preference for Indian industrials. Our overweight on HK/China, Korea, India and underweight on Taiwan (but preference for Taiwan technology) continues.


Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Marginally; Focus More on Indian Industrials

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group</li>
<li>Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks</li>
<li>C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean</li>
</ul>


Daewoo Shipping &amp; Marine Engineering early in May 2023 agreed to takeover by Hanwah Group
Hanwah Ocean, the re-named entity, reported financial stress for years, a lumpy NPL for banks
C&amp;P CIQ data suggests that all four major Korean banks are creditors to Hanwah Ocean


Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

South Korea

Hana Financial Group Inc., in accordance with Financial Holding Companies Act, was established on December 1, 2005, through stock transfer with the former shareholders of its subsidiaries in order to provide management services and financing to associated companies.

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Hana Financial (086790 KS)

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 18th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Marginally; Focus More on Indian Industrials

Since last reshuffle Portfolio is up 1.18% vs MXASJ's 0.92%. Since inception it's up 44.9% vs MXASJ's 45.8%. Excluded Reliance Ind, included...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

News of ~USD740m placement, insight by Brian Freitas on this capital increase, it is a timely reminder of core credit metrics and concern for...

Daniel Tabbush

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Asian Equities: EPS Estimate Upgrades Do Drive Share Prices

​In response to clients' queries we backtest the efficacy of EPS est. upgrades as an indicator of share price movement. The indicator has 80%...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding

Downgrading Germany and Ireland; Global Technology Still Leading; Crucial Base Supports Holding on $ACWI ($123-123.50), $EEM ($46)

Vermilion Research

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Sep 18th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec (PREF), DOOSAN

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Samsung Elec...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asian Equities: Model Portfolio Outperformed Marginally; Focus More on Indian Industrials

Since last reshuffle Portfolio is up 1.18% vs MXASJ's 0.92%. Since inception it's up 44.9% vs MXASJ's 45.8%. Excluded Reliance Ind, included...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Korea's Large Banks & Hanwah Ocean - Credit Reversals or Overhang?

News of ~USD740m placement, insight by Brian Freitas on this capital increase, it is a timely reminder of core credit metrics and concern for...

Daniel Tabbush

In response to clients' queries we backtest the efficacy of EPS est. upgrades as an indicator of share price movement. The indicator has 80%...