Real Estate, General Equities

Will Tan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Following our insight, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/capitaland-a-critical-review-slowing-pace-of-asset-recycling-is-the-model-still-relevant" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:15334">CapitaLand: A Critical Review - Slowing Pace of Asset Recycling, Is the Model Still Relevant?</a> which illustrated the intuition that ROE is a main driver for developers' share prices, we scan the developer universe in Asia ex-Japan markets in search of value for names that albeit trading at a significant discount to book value is expected to deliver good ROE. <h2>                    Asia Developers' ROE vs P/B distribution </h2><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/039/164/original/Screen%20Shot%202017-11-26%20at%202.33.13%20PM.png?1511678015" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="39164"></figure>                        Source: BloombergOur scan of the…

Following our insight, CapitaLand: A Critical Review - Slowing Pace of Asset Recycling, Is the Model Still Relevant? which illustrated the intuition that ROE is a main driver for developers' share prices, we scan the developer universe in Asia ex-Japan markets in search of value for names that albeit trading at a significant discount to book value is expected to deliver good ROE.                     Asia Developers' ROE vs P/B distribution                         Source: BloombergOur scan of the…

Asia Real Estate Equities: In Search of Value in the Asia Ex-Japan Property Developer Universe

Amareos

Ryan Shea

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble occurs when the price of an asset is significantly overvalued making it increasingly difficult to justify based on underlying fundamentals. In such situations it is the overriding optimism of the crowd, with unrealistically high expectations, that acts as the propellant for further gains. Ten years on from the bursting of the US housing market…

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble occurs when the price of an asset is significantly overvalued making it increasingly difficult to justify based on underlying fundamentals. In such situations it is the overriding optimism of the crowd, with unrealistically high expectations, that acts as the propellant for further gains. Ten years on from the bursting of the US housing market…

The Market Sentimentalist: Global Real Estate – Where Are The Risks Residing?

Independent, global risk consultancy, Control Risks

Aparajita Verma

Independent, global risk consultancy

Control Risks

Control Risks is an independent, global risk consultancy specialising in helping organisations manage political, integrity and security risks in complex and hostile environments. We support clients by providing strategic consultancy, expert analysis and in-depth investigations, handling sensitive political issues and providing practical on-the-ground protection and support.

Our unique combination of services, geographical reach and the trust our clients place in us ensure we can help them to effectively solve their problems and realise new opportunities across the world.

Control Risks, the pre-eminent global risk consultancy, has identified the following key business risks in Asia Pacific for 2017.Written by <a href="https://www.controlrisks.com/en/about-us/our-experts/people/steve-wilford" target="_blank">Steve Wilford</a>, Senior Partner, Global Risk Analysis, Control Risks

Control Risks, the pre-eminent global risk consultancy, has identified the following key business risks in Asia Pacific for 2017.Written by Steve Wilford, Senior Partner, Global Risk Analysis, Control Risks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>You'd only want to be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> if you're very bullish <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cellebrite-di-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37102:1" rel="noopener">Cellebrite (CLBT US)</a>and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.</li>
<li>It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kioxia-holdings-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29243:1" rel="noopener">Kioxia (285A JP)</a>.</li>
<li>On balance, the optics in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-hutchison-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:132:1" rel="noopener">CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK)</a> are looking attractive. </li>
</ul>


You'd only want to be long Sun Corp (6736 JP) if you're very bullish Cellebrite (CLBT US)and some of the other businesses inside Sun Corp which aren't making money.
It's never ideal shorting rocket ships on the way up. Best to short on the way down. At some juncture, there will be a magnificent correction in Kioxia (285A JP).
On balance, the optics in CK Hutchison Holdings (1 HK) are looking attractive. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://skr.ma/SRsXc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Remains An Avoid. Get Involved With GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> flagged <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung (10 HK)</a> as coming up "expensive" to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Back in January 2024 HLP offered a scrip dividend option, and HLG has taken full advantage, increasing its stake by 4%.</li>
<li>As HLG adds more HLP, long-term deep value play Dodge &amp; Cox gradually sells HLG. That makes things interesting. And HLG's P/B is inexpensive.</li>
</ul>



StubWorld: GMO Internet (4784) Remains An Avoid. Get Involved With GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) flagged Hang Lung (10 HK) as coming up "expensive" to Hang Lung Properties (101 HK).
Back in January 2024 HLP offered a scrip dividend option, and HLG has taken full advantage, increasing its stake by 4%.
As HLG adds more HLP, long-term deep value play Dodge &amp; Cox gradually sells HLG. That makes things interesting. And HLG's P/B is inexpensive.


Hang Lung (10 HK) Is Inexpensive As Dodge & Cox Sells (A Little)

Hong Kong

Hang Lung Properties is a leading property developer and investor with a diverse portfolio in Hong Kong and Mainland China. The company specializes in developing, selling, and leasing premium commercial complexes, including shopping malls and office premises, as well as residential properties. It was incorporated in 1949 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)

Asia Real Estate Equities: In Search of Value in the Asia Ex-Japan Property Developer Universe

Following our insight, CapitaLand: A Critical Review - Slowing Pace of Asset Recycling, Is the Model Still Relevant? which illustrated the...

Will Tan

The Market Sentimentalist: Global Real Estate – Where Are The Risks Residing?

Summary: Housing has several characteristics that mean it is almost perfectly designed to be prone to bubble-like behaviour. By definition a bubble...

Amareos

Top 5 Risks for Business in Asia Pacific

Control Risks, the pre-eminent global risk consultancy, has identified the following key business risks in Asia Pacific for 2017.Written by Steve...

Control Risks

Last Week In Event SPACE: Sun Corp/Cellebrite, Kioxia, CK Hutchison, Toshiba/ROHM

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Hang Lung (10 HK) Is Inexpensive As Dodge & Cox Sells (A Little)

HLG remains dirt cheap at 0.23x P/B, albeit illiquid. Expect HLG to continue to chip away at HLP minorities. I'd be getting some exposure in HLG.

David Blennerhassett

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