Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Through operating luxury shopping malls in China, Hang Lung Properties is the only HK-listed stock that provides exposure to the China luxury consumption story.  It is trading at attractive valuation.</li>
<li>Major concerns are 1) leakage of retail sales after re-opening and 2) impact on luxury consumption from negative wealth effect.  Most of the risks are priced in at current valuation.</li>
<li>Short-Term, China consumption will recover post-COVID as consumer sentiment rebounds.  Long-term, the structural story of China consumption remains intact, supported by growing middle class and increasing disposable income and savings.</li>
</ul>


Through operating luxury shopping malls in China, Hang Lung Properties is the only HK-listed stock that provides exposure to the China luxury consumption story.  It is trading at attractive valuation.
Major concerns are 1) leakage of retail sales after re-opening and 2) impact on luxury consumption from negative wealth effect.  Most of the risks are priced in at current valuation.
Short-Term, China consumption will recover post-COVID as consumer sentiment rebounds.  Long-term, the structural story of China consumption remains intact, supported by growing middle class and increasing disposable income and savings.


Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): The Only Play on China Luxury Consumption and at a Macro Sweet Spot

<ul>
<li>HLP malls, which focus on China luxury retail consumption, is facing headwind from slowing China economy and weaker consumption</li>
<li>The retail sales in its malls slowed down and recorded -13% yoy growth for 1H 2024.  Dividend cut was a negative surprise</li>
<li>However, market is forward looking and stock valuation is too cheap to ignore, we recommend long-term investors can look at this name</li>
</ul>


HLP malls, which focus on China luxury retail consumption, is facing headwind from slowing China economy and weaker consumption
The retail sales in its malls slowed down and recorded -13% yoy growth for 1H 2024.  Dividend cut was a negative surprise
However, market is forward looking and stock valuation is too cheap to ignore, we recommend long-term investors can look at this name


Hang Lung Properties 101 HK: Dragged by China Slowing Luxury Retail, but Stock Too Cheap to Ignore

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In its final results on 30 January, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a> board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.</li>
<li>The Chan family's share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. </li>
<li>The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.</li>
</ul>


In its final results on 30 January, the Hang Lung Properties (101 HK) board declared a final dividend of HK$0.60 per share, which can be paid in cash or by scrip.
The Chan family's share of outstanding shares has steadily increased from 53.15% in 2013 to 61.89%. The scrip dividend could increase the family to 63.57% of post-dividend outstanding shares. 
The Chan family have plenty of headroom to chip away at minorities before breaching the 25% public float requirements. HPL’s valuation is undemanding, but a privatisation offer is unlikely.


Hang Lung Properties (101 HK): Scrip Div Helps the Family to Chip Away at Minorities

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>And eagle-eyed reader spotted <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-properties-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:49:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)</a>'s scrip dividend option for the FY23 final dividend. That's the first time I've seen HLP provide this alternative. </li>
<li>Over the years, the Chan family and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-lung-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:50:1" rel="noopener">Hang Lung (10 HK)</a> have chipped away at HLG's and HLP's minorities. HLP and HLG are currently trading at all-time low P/Bs. </li>
<li>This scrip dividend, which takes a page out of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jardine-matheson-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19718:1" rel="noopener">Jardine Matheson (JM SP)</a>'s playbook, would boost HLG's stake in HLP to ~63% from 61.24% currently; if opting only for scrip.</li>
</ul>


And eagle-eyed reader spotted Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)'s scrip dividend option for the FY23 final dividend. That's the first time I've seen HLP provide this alternative. 
Over the years, the Chan family and Hang Lung (10 HK) have chipped away at HLG's and HLP's minorities. HLP and HLG are currently trading at all-time low P/Bs. 
This scrip dividend, which takes a page out of Jardine Matheson (JM SP)'s playbook, would boost HLG's stake in HLP to ~63% from 61.24% currently; if opting only for scrip.


Hang Lung Group: Thoughts On HLP's Scrip Dividend

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/luk-fook-holdings-intl-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19054:1" rel="noopener">Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK)</a> is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sa-sa-international-hldgs" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20143:1" rel="noopener">Sa Sa International (178 HK)</a> is the cosmetics play.</li>
<li>Property investors including <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/wharf-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:51:1" rel="noopener">Wharf Holdings (4 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hysan-development-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14169:1" rel="noopener">Hysan Development Co (14 HK)</a> will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.</li>
</ul>


There is an increasing likelihood that the duty-free quota of mainland tourists visiting Hong Kong will rise to Rmb30,000 from Rmb5,000. This will benefit many retail-related sectors.

Luk Fook Holdings (590 HK) is the best play among jewellery retailers given it has 65% of revenue from Hong Kong. Sa Sa International (178 HK) is the cosmetics play.
Property investors including Wharf Holdings (4 HK) and Hysan Development Co (14 HK) will gain from the shopping malls in major tourist areas in Hong Kong.


Increasing HK Duty Free Quota: The Beneficaries

Hong Kong

Hang Lung Properties Limited, through its subsidiaries, invests in, develops, and manages properties. The Company also manages parking lots. Hang Lung Properties serves customers in Hong Kong.

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Hang Lung Properties (101 HK)