Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For Oct 2025, 15 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of ~US$33bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in October was ~54%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), 2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a> is trading tight  - perhaps too tight - to terms, as every punter views the deal as a term deposit.</li>
<li>Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>. Be long <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>. Buy dips. Buy big dips post-tender. Future guidance will include synergy effects.</li>
<li>Richard Li's <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkt-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:874:1" rel="noopener">HKT Ltd (6823 HK)</a> is in the crosshairs as FCC moves to expel the telco from U.S. networks. </li>
</ul>



Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) is trading tight  - perhaps too tight - to terms, as every punter views the deal as a term deposit.
Be long Welcia Holdings (3141 JP). Be long Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP). Buy dips. Buy big dips post-tender. Future guidance will include synergy effects.
Richard Li's HKT Ltd (6823 HK) is in the crosshairs as FCC moves to expel the telco from U.S. networks. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans </li>
<li>Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs</li>
<li>Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs</li>
</ul>


HKMA data shows the loss loan ratio in HK is up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25. These are the worst of the worst bad loans 
Substandard loan ratio in HK is up 4.7x over the same period, and this bucket can gradually migrate to worse buckets, requiring more credit costs
Overdue loan ratio and rescheduled loan ratio in HK is up 5.4x over this period, and these are not technically NPLs


HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

<ul>
<li>There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace</li>
<li>LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.</li>
<li>Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.</li>
</ul>


There are some improvements in HK domestic credit growth, but not in the key property sector, which continues to see contraction, at worsening pace
LDR contraction in HK is another concern, for NIM, core interest income, while China credit metrics remain a concern - not only domestic HK.
Singapore banks also exposed to HK and to Mainland China, it is not only HK local banks which bear this risk. Chailease from Taiwan is another good example.


HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

<ul>
<li>Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05</li>
<li>Deposits are overwhelming HK's banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series</li>
<li>Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels</li>
</ul>


Real estate lending growth in Hong Kong remains weak and now at lowest growth rate in the HKMA series since early FY05
Deposits are overwhelming HK's banks with LDR now moving to 55% in April FY25, nearly the lowest on record from HKMA series
Capital flight risk on the HK currency is also more severe than in the past, at any time, with FX reserves at 1.6x , well below past levels


Hong Kong Banks - Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

Hong Kong

Hang Seng Bank is a Hong Kong-based banking and financial services company. It offers a comprehensive range of services including retail banking, wealth management, commercial banking, global banking and markets, and private banking, along with Renminbi services. The bank was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Oct 2025 Wrap: Hang Seng, SCSK, AUB, Sumitomo Densetsu, Genting Malaysia, ANE

For the month of Oct 2025, 15 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of ~US$33bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: Hang Seng, Welcia/Tsuruha, HKT, Genting, Daiichi, Aussie Rare Earths

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

HSBC - Loss Loans up 7.5x from FY19 to 2Q25 in HKMA Industry Data. Hang Seng Bank Buyout, Now?

HSBC interview with Bloomberg shows another set of cost-cutting efforts. For anybody following this bank for ~20 years, a pattern is clear. It's...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Banks - Credit Growth Improves, but Property Worsening. LDR Continues to Move Lower.

New data on LDR, shows further contraction. This is partly driven by accelerating USD deposit growth at +20.5% YoY for July.

Daniel Tabbush

Hong Kong Banks - Weak Property Lending Weakens More, Aggressive LDR Fall, Expect Poor Profit

Bank of East Asia 1H25 release shows considerable worsening in CRE in Hong Kong and in Mainland China. Its credit metrics in Macau, are also...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)