Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and S&amp;P 500 and MSCI ACWI price trends are showing evidence of early-stage uptrend formations. In today’s report we provide an overview of international markets and highlight our top recommendations.

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Banks in Hong Kong have some of the lowest levels of loan loss reserves (LLR) compared with loans and also their loan loss provision (LLP) expenses are paltry. The sharp rise of interest rates during late this year will see a marked increase in interest payments. This is due to the magnitude of the rate change, which is over 60% higher. It is fairly simple to service loans at near zero interest rates, but the propensity for defaults is suddenly much higher as rates climb to 1.25%.  Hong Kong – 3…

Banks in Hong Kong have some of the lowest levels of loan loss reserves (LLR) compared with loans and also their loan loss provision (LLP) expenses are paltry. The sharp rise of interest rates during late this year will see a marked increase in interest payments. This is due to the magnitude of the rate change, which is over 60% higher. It is fairly simple to service loans at near zero interest rates, but the propensity for defaults is suddenly much higher as rates climb to 1.25%.  Hong Kong – 3…

Hong Kong’s banks have exposure to China. Some more than others. There are signs of worsening credit conditions in China from some of Hong Kong banks’ financials. We believe this may be as good as any indicator for China credit risk, even where non-performing loan (NPL) ratios appear static in the Mainland. At the same time, some banks in Hong Kong are seeing high rates of growth in domestic impaired loans, provision costs or overdue loans. With less support from China, it is no wonder that…

Hong Kong’s banks have exposure to China. Some more than others. There are signs of worsening credit conditions in China from some of Hong Kong banks’ financials. We believe this may be as good as any indicator for China credit risk, even where non-performing loan (NPL) ratios appear static in the Mainland. At the same time, some banks in Hong Kong are seeing high rates of growth in domestic impaired loans, provision costs or overdue loans. With less support from China, it is no wonder that…

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index / Technical Analysis

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index (MXAPJ INDEX)

MSCI AC Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is breaking out from a two-year base. Relative strength (vs. MSCI ACWI ex-US) depicts a similar pattern; after lagging since mid-2015, its RS trend has slowly rounded higher, resulting in the recent breakout. Combined, this warrants an overweight.Today’s report is a country by country review of leadership and actionable themes within the region, including stock recommendations.

Head of Research at Fusion Wealth Management Ltd

Michael McGaughy

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value.  I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality people, have corporate structures that align minority and majority shareholder interests and trade at valuations that are below fair value if not outright cheap. This note is actually not about any of that and instead just a quick one about bitcoin and how my initial skepticism may have been wrong.  I usually don’t write “macro” or ‘thought pieces’…

Hong Kong

Hang Seng Bank is a Hong Kong-based banking and financial services company. It offers a comprehensive range of services including retail banking, wealth management, commercial banking, global banking and markets, and private banking, along with Renminbi services. The bank was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Central, Hong Kong.

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Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)

Global Equity Markets Overview

Over the past several weeks we have outlined the case for our increasingly bullish outlook, noting that market internals remain favorable and...

Vermilion Research

Hong Kong Banks – Interest Rate Shock

Banks in Hong Kong have some of the lowest levels of loan loss reserves (LLR) compared with loans and also their loan loss provision (LLP) expenses...

Daniel Tabbush

HK Banks - Domestic Decay, And China Too

Hong Kong’s banks have exposure to China. Some more than others. There are signs of worsening credit conditions in China from some of Hong Kong...

Daniel Tabbush

Asia: Developing Leadership

As all eyes are focused on Europe—the current darling trade—Asia is emerging as a technical leader. The MSCI All-Country Asia Index (below) is...

Vermilion Research

Bitcoin - The View From Lagos

In my research and investing I stress three things: people, structure, and value. I look for companies that are controlled and managed by quality...

Michael McGaughy

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