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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Bankruptcy / Cover Story: The rise and fall of China’s ‘fentanyl king’ in corruption-fueled bankruptcy</li><li>Hikvision /: Canada kicks out Chinese surveillance-gear maker</li><li>Nike /: Nike to cut China footwear output to counter $1 billion tariff hit</li></ul>

Bankruptcy / Cover Story: The rise and fall of China’s ‘fentanyl king’ in corruption-fueled bankruptcyHikvision /: Canada kicks out Chinese surveillance-gear makerNike /: Nike to cut China footwear output to counter $1 billion tariff hit

CX Daily: The Rise and Fall of China’s ‘Fentanyl King’ in Corruption-Fueled Bankruptcy 

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.</li>
<li>We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).</li>
<li>If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.</li>
</ul>


The pullback in global equities continues with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US) testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance while the STOXX Europe 50 tests resistance at 3800-3840.
We expect a rejection at the 1.5-month downtrend and for the stair-step lower to continue, with our targets being $84 (December 2022 low) and potentially $75-77 (the 2022 lows).
If ACWI-US is able to reverse above the 1.5-month downtrend, we still expect $93 to cap upside in 2023. Remain overweight Europe. Also highlighting individual stock buys on pullbacks.


MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

<ul>
<li>In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US</li>
<li>Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.</li>
<li>We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.</li>
</ul>


In our latest int'l reports we have preached caution, and since January we have discussed our expectations for $93 to cap upside on the ACWI-US
Thus far, $93 has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and ACWI-US now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun.
We would expect this pullback to continue down to $86-87 at minimum, and potentially $84 (December 2022 low). Even $75-77 (the 2022 lows) is not out of the question.


MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

China

Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Ltd develops, manufactures and sells video surveillance products.  The Company manufactures video and audio compression card, network hard disk video recorders, video servers, cameras, network storage, and other digital products.

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Hangzhou Hikvision (002415 CH)

CX Daily: The Rise and Fall of China’s ‘Fentanyl King’ in Corruption-Fueled Bankruptcy

Bankruptcy / Cover Story: The rise and fall of China’s ‘fentanyl king’ in corruption-fueled bankruptcy In January, months before a...

Caixin Global

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI and EAFE Testing 1.5-Month Downtrends; Remain OW EU; Buys in Leading Sectors on Pullbacks

Pullback in global equities continues with MSCI $ACWI testing 1.5-month downtrend resistance as $STOXX Europe 50 tests 3800-3840 resistance....

Vermilion Research

MSCI ACWI Uptrend Break; Defensives to Shine; Ideas in Staples, Health Care, Telecomm, Utilities

$93 on $ACWI has proven to be rock-solid resistance, and it now displays a 4.5-month uptrend violation signaling the pullback has officially begun....

Vermilion Research

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

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