Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On the 11th September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-aerospace-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:504:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)</a>, collectively holding 25.36%, made a S$0.60/share cash Offer for shares not owned, conditional on a 50% acceptance.</li>
<li>The transaction stalled on the 24th September, when the estate of Dyna-Mac’s founding shareholder, Desmond Lim Tze Jong (holding ~35% currently) reckoned the Offer “does not adequately reflect” Dyna-Mac’s value.</li>
<li>Hanwha Group has now bumped terms by 11.67% to S$0.67/share, best &amp; final. That's a 35.4% premium to undisturbed, and a decade high. No word, yet, from the Lim estate.</li>
</ul>


On the 11th September, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) and Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS), collectively holding 25.36%, made a S$0.60/share cash Offer for shares not owned, conditional on a 50% acceptance.
The transaction stalled on the 24th September, when the estate of Dyna-Mac’s founding shareholder, Desmond Lim Tze Jong (holding ~35% currently) reckoned the Offer “does not adequately reflect” Dyna-Mac’s value.
Hanwha Group has now bumped terms by 11.67% to S$0.67/share, best &amp; final. That's a 35.4% premium to undisturbed, and a decade high. No word, yet, from the Lim estate.


Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): No Alternative As Hanwha Group Bumps

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) reported its best ever results in 2025 despite missing its operating profit estimate in 4Q 2025. </li>
<li>The company missed the consensus operating profit estimate by 35.9% in 4Q 2025. Hanwha Aerospace is not out of bullets after its poor quarterly results in 4Q 2025. </li>
<li>Nevertheless, if the company misses quarterly earnings once again in 1H 2026 (either 1Q or 2Q), this could result in a nasty sell-off on the stock.</li>
</ul>


Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) reported its best ever results in 2025 despite missing its operating profit estimate in 4Q 2025. 
The company missed the consensus operating profit estimate by 35.9% in 4Q 2025. Hanwha Aerospace is not out of bullets after its poor quarterly results in 4Q 2025. 
Nevertheless, if the company misses quarterly earnings once again in 1H 2026 (either 1Q or 2Q), this could result in a nasty sell-off on the stock.


Hanwha Aerospace: Out of Bullets After Missing Earnings in 4Q 2025?

<ul>
<li>In 3Q25, Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 6.5 trillion won (up 146.5% YoY and 1.6% lower than consensus) and operating profit of 856.4 billion won (up 79.5% YoY).</li>
<li>The company's results in 3Q 2025 were its best ever in its history. The strong results were driven by its land defense business and its shipbuilding unit Hanwha Ocean.</li>
<li>Given the company's excellent growth in sales and profits in the past several years as well as its strong order backlog, its valuationsremain attractive. </li>
</ul>


In 3Q25, Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 6.5 trillion won (up 146.5% YoY and 1.6% lower than consensus) and operating profit of 856.4 billion won (up 79.5% YoY).
The company's results in 3Q 2025 were its best ever in its history. The strong results were driven by its land defense business and its shipbuilding unit Hanwha Ocean.
Given the company's excellent growth in sales and profits in the past several years as well as its strong order backlog, its valuationsremain attractive. 


Hanwha Aerospace: Best Ever Results in 3Q 2025

Chief Executive Officer, Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Chief Executive Officer

Emmer Capital Partners Limited

Emmer Capital Partners is an Asia Pacific focused financial advisory firm engaging in strategic financial asset allocation advice, bespoke thematic research and advising early-stage companies and connecting them to investors. Emmer Capital provides macro-economic and multi-asset investment strategy inputs to institutions, family offices, private wealth managers, private equity, and corporate boards directly and through independent research platforms. Emmer Capital also advises a wide range of startup companies on fund raising and business strategy. Emmer Capital's active engagement with the print and electronic media reaches a broad spectrum of investors across the globe.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Asian earnings estimates are being revised up stupendously. Over past 6 months, 2026 consensus EPS is up 16%. 63 market-sectors out of 159 saw upgrades, vs 30 few months ago.</li>
<li>While the main drivers are Korean and Taiwanese tech, the spill-over from tech into consumption sentiment and investment propensity are visible. Korean retail, financials, Taiwanese financials have had significant upgrades.</li>
<li>The pedestrian upgrade to China's EPS and the downgrade to Hong Kong's are surprising. Our preferences remain on Korean tech, industrials, defense, financials, Taiwanese tech, Chinese basic materials, HK financials.</li>
</ul>


Asian earnings estimates are being revised up stupendously. Over past 6 months, 2026 consensus EPS is up 16%. 63 market-sectors out of 159 saw upgrades, vs 30 few months ago.
While the main drivers are Korean and Taiwanese tech, the spill-over from tech into consumption sentiment and investment propensity are visible. Korean retail, financials, Taiwanese financials have had significant upgrades.
The pedestrian upgrade to China's EPS and the downgrade to Hong Kong's are surprising. Our preferences remain on Korean tech, industrials, defense, financials, Taiwanese tech, Chinese basic materials, HK financials.


Asian Equities: The Earnings Juggernaut Is Rolling on and Getting Broad-Based

<ul>
<li>We argued that Asia was oversold in March. In April FIIs bought back a little, US$1.58bn, predominantly in Taiwan (US$7.83bn). They bought US$493m in Korea and sold US$6.47bn in India.</li>
<li>Our study of last 20 years FII investment shows that the present episode is the largest quantum of FII selling in Asia in a short period. </li>
<li>The large Asian markets, Korea, Taiwan and India, are all near their troughs in terms of 6-monthly cumulative FII selling as percentage of market cap. India could get sold more.</li>
</ul>


We argued that Asia was oversold in March. In April FIIs bought back a little, US$1.58bn, predominantly in Taiwan (US$7.83bn). They bought US$493m in Korea and sold US$6.47bn in India.
Our study of last 20 years FII investment shows that the present episode is the largest quantum of FII selling in Asia in a short period. 
The large Asian markets, Korea, Taiwan and India, are all near their troughs in terms of 6-monthly cumulative FII selling as percentage of market cap. India could get sold more.


Asian Equities: Nascent Revival in FII Flows in April, but a Long Way to Go

South Korea

Hanwha Aerospace Co., Ltd. operates as an aircraft parts manufacturing company. The Company produces and sells aircraft gas turbine engine products, aircraft compressors, low pressure turbines, and other products. Hanwha Aerospace markets its products worldwide.

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Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)

Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): No Alternative As Hanwha Group Bumps

Trading at S$0.65/share as I type. If I was an arbitrageur, and already in, I'd be selling here and into strength Look to (re) enter on any...

David Blennerhassett

Hanwha Aerospace: Out of Bullets After Missing Earnings in 4Q 2025?

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) reported its best ever results in 2025 despite missing its operating profit estimate in 4Q 2025.

Douglas Kim

Hanwha Aerospace: Best Ever Results in 3Q 2025

In 3Q25, Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 6.5 trillion won (up 146.5% YoY), operating profit of 856.4 billion won (up 79.5% YoY). The company's...

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: The Earnings Juggernaut Is Rolling on and Getting Broad-Based

Asian EPS est are soaring driven by KR & TW tech. CN had modest upgrade over past 6 months & HK was downgraded. Spill-over from tech into...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Nascent Revival in FII Flows in April, but a Long Way to Go

FIIs bought back $1.58bn in Asia in April, with Taiwan leading the way. FII selling in India, TW & KR as percentage of market cap are near...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

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52-week Range

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Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): No Alternative As Hanwha Group Bumps

Trading at S$0.65/share as I type. If I was an arbitrageur, and already in, I'd be selling here and into strength Look to (re) enter on any...

David Blennerhassett

Hanwha Aerospace: Out of Bullets After Missing Earnings in 4Q 2025?

Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS) reported its best ever results in 2025 despite missing its operating profit estimate in 4Q 2025.

Douglas Kim

Hanwha Aerospace: Best Ever Results in 3Q 2025

In 3Q25, Hanwha Aerospace reported sales of 6.5 trillion won (up 146.5% YoY), operating profit of 856.4 billion won (up 79.5% YoY). The company's...

Douglas Kim

Asian Equities: The Earnings Juggernaut Is Rolling on and Getting Broad-Based

​Asian EPS est are soaring driven by KR & TW tech. CN had modest upgrade over past 6 months & HK was downgraded. Spill-over from tech into...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian Equities: Nascent Revival in FII Flows in April, but a Long Way to Go

​FIIs bought back $1.58bn in Asia in April, with Taiwan leading the way. FII selling in India, TW & KR as percentage of market cap are near...

Manishi Raychaudhuri

Asian EPS est are soaring driven by KR & TW tech. CN had modest upgrade over past 6 months & HK was downgraded. Spill-over from tech into...

FIIs bought back $1.58bn in Asia in April, with Taiwan leading the way. FII selling in India, TW & KR as percentage of market cap are near...