Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. </li>
<li>Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.</li>
<li>There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.</li>
</ul>


Since short selling was banned in November 2023, short interest has plunged in Korea as shorts were covered. Markets have not done much over the last 16 months though. 
Foreign investor holdings have dropped from 32.05% in July to 28.57%. The top 25 stocks bought by foreign investors outperformed the top 25 stocks sold by 128% in 16 months.
There will be trade opportunities across indices, pref/ords, index migrations and deletions, potential market upgrades and overvalued stocks being sold.


Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 11th September, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-aerospace-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:504:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS)</a>, collectively holding 25.36%, made a S$0.60/share cash Offer for shares not owned, conditional on a 50% acceptance.</li>
<li>The transaction stalled on the 24th September, when the estate of Dyna-Mac’s founding shareholder, Desmond Lim Tze Jong (holding ~35% currently) reckoned the Offer “does not adequately reflect” Dyna-Mac’s value.</li>
<li>Hanwha Group has now bumped terms by 11.67% to S$0.67/share, best &amp; final. That's a 35.4% premium to undisturbed, and a decade high. No word, yet, from the Lim estate.</li>
</ul>


On the 11th September, Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) and Hanwha Aerospace (012450 KS), collectively holding 25.36%, made a S$0.60/share cash Offer for shares not owned, conditional on a 50% acceptance.
The transaction stalled on the 24th September, when the estate of Dyna-Mac’s founding shareholder, Desmond Lim Tze Jong (holding ~35% currently) reckoned the Offer “does not adequately reflect” Dyna-Mac’s value.
Hanwha Group has now bumped terms by 11.67% to S$0.67/share, best &amp; final. That's a 35.4% premium to undisturbed, and a decade high. No word, yet, from the Lim estate.


Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): No Alternative As Hanwha Group Bumps

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a> is now negotiating deal terms with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd (ASB AU)</a> after substantially completing diligence, while Wildcat’s competing proposal remains at the non-binding dialogue stage.</li>
<li>Tax structuring advice and extended diligence signal a late-stage process, making a binding Hanwha offer materially more likely; price remains the key open question.</li>
<li>My revised SoTP values Austal at A$4.84–$6.97 per share, 17–69% above A$4.13. The gap reflects AUSA deal-completion risk plus a standalone Australasia scale discount — not fundamentals alone.</li>
</ul>



Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) is now negotiating deal terms with Austal Ltd (ASB AU) after substantially completing diligence, while Wildcat’s competing proposal remains at the non-binding dialogue stage.
Tax structuring advice and extended diligence signal a late-stage process, making a binding Hanwha offer materially more likely; price remains the key open question.
My revised SoTP values Austal at A$4.84–$6.97 per share, 17–69% above A$4.13. The gap reflects AUSA deal-completion risk plus a standalone Australasia scale discount — not fundamentals alone.


Austal (ASB AU): Hanwha Pulls Ahead of Wildcat in the Race for Austal USA

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) is one of the largest ever defense contracts that the Canadian government plans to provide worth about $44 billion.</li>
<li>Two main bidders including Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and Korea's consortium led by Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries have been formally shortlisted to compete for this contract.</li>
<li>The final proposals are due in March and a decision expected by May or June 2026.  </li>
</ul>


The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) is one of the largest ever defense contracts that the Canadian government plans to provide worth about $44 billion.
Two main bidders including Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems and Korea's consortium led by Hanwha Ocean and HD Hyundai Heavy Industries have been formally shortlisted to compete for this contract.
The final proposals are due in March and a decision expected by May or June 2026.  


Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) Worth $44 Billion: Who Will Win - Korea or Germany?

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

Shenton Research

Shenton Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated short interest was USD19.5bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan Enerbility.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of KRX stocks as of Oct 2nd. The aggregated short interest was USD19.5bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan Enerbility.


KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan Enerbility

South Korea

Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides floating structure construction, steel wire drying, commercial vessels, specialty vessels, gas carrier, tanker, containership, ro ro, bulk carrier, submarine, warship, auxiliaries, cruise ships, and ferries manufacturing services. Hanwha Ocean also offers onshore plants services.

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Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)

Korea: Short Selling Is Back in March; Trade Ideas

Short selling in Korea commences from Monday. There will be a lot of interest in shorting stocks/sectors depending on how they have performed since...

Brian Freitas

Dyna-Mac (DMHL SP): No Alternative As Hanwha Group Bumps

Trading at S$0.65/share as I type. If I was an arbitrageur, and already in, I'd be selling here and into strength Look to (re) enter on any...

David Blennerhassett

Austal (ASB AU): Hanwha Pulls Ahead of Wildcat in the Race for Austal USA

Hanwha is negotiating terms and leads Wildcat for Austal USA; a binding offer looks likely. SoTP of A$4.84–6.97/sh implies 17–69% upside to A$4.13.

Arun George

Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) Worth $44 Billion: Who Will Win - Korea or Germany?

CPSP is a mega huge defense contract by the Canadian government worth about $44 billion. The final proposals are due in March. It is down to two...

Douglas Kim

KRX Short Interest Weekly (Oct 2nd): HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan Enerbility

We analyzed KRX short interest report for the past week and highlighted short interest changes in HLB, DWEC, NAVER, Samsung Elec (PREF), Doosan...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

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