Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Bottom-Up

Orient Overseas (International) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Weak price momentum and spot rates both improved somewhat in November-December</li>
<li>But we believe this improvement will quickly dissipate, due to still-poor end demand </li>
<li>We still see deep-sea container industry as entering a lengthy down-cycle; AVOID</li>
</ul>


Weak price momentum and spot rates both improved somewhat in November-December
But we believe this improvement will quickly dissipate, due to still-poor end demand 
We still see deep-sea container industry as entering a lengthy down-cycle; AVOID


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Recent Improvement in Price Likely to Dissipate Soon

<ul>
<li>Our measure of container shipping price momentum remained weak in October</li>
<li>Poor Q3 results and downbeat Q4/FY guidance from Maersk, Zim; and Suez re-opening?</li>
<li>Conditions are poor and will likely remain that way for a while; AVOID the sector</li>
</ul>


Our measure of container shipping price momentum remained weak in October
Poor Q3 results and downbeat Q4/FY guidance from Maersk, Zim; and Suez re-opening?
Conditions are poor and will likely remain that way for a while; AVOID the sector


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Poor Q3 Results, Weak Guidance, A Re-Opening of Suez? | AVOID

AP Moeller - Maersk A/S / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates</li>
<li>Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026</li>
<li>Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector</li>
</ul>


Core "Ocean" EBITDA fell by 55% Y/Y in Q325 due to lower average freight rates
Maersk lifted lower end of guidance range, but offered downbeat tone on Q4, 2026
Shares fell by 5% in response to Thursday's report; we remain negative on sector


Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

<ul>
<li>Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September </li>
<li>Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026</li>
<li>Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses</li>
</ul>


Price momentum and volume growth both remained weak in September 
Mideast ceasefire raises possibility of Suez Canal re-opening in 2026
Expect pricing to remain weak; Suez re-start would likely lead to losses


Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services / Equity Bottom-Up

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services (ZIM US)

<ul>
<li>Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management</li>
<li>ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers</li>
<li>We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term</li>
</ul>


Recently there have been rumors ZIM could be taken private by management
ZIM issued a 'no comment' but its board has reportedly hired bankers
We think a bid from a non-Israeli source is quite unlikely in the near-term


Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Germany

Hapag-Lloyd AG operates as a container shipping line company. The Company offers transportation of goods by sea, road, rail, and inland waterway vessels. Hapag-Lloyd serves customers worldwide.

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Hapag-Lloyd AG (HLAG GR)

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Recent Improvement in Price Likely to Dissipate Soon

Although price momentum improved in recent weeks, we believe profit margins and returns for deep-sea container carriers will continue to...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker: Poor Q3 Results, Weak Guidance, A Re-Opening of Suez? | AVOID

Weak pricing, declining earnings and cash flow, and the potential re-opening of the Suez Canal to ship traffic are all reasons to AVOID container...

Tracking Traffic

Maersk Q325 Results: Core Ocean Down 55% Y/Y | Downbeat Guidance from Management | Q425 Losses?

Maersk reported decent Q3 numbers last week, but management's downbeat tone & new guidance that suggests EBIT loss in Q4 should raise alarm bells...

Tracking Traffic

Monthly Container Shipping Tracker | Momentum, Volume Still Weak | Suez Restoration? (October 2025)

Price momentum and North American inbound demand both remained weak in September, and we believe a new ceasefire raises the likelihood of a Suez...

Tracking Traffic

Addressing Go-Private Rumors Surrounding ZIM | Near-Term, We Think a Transaction Is Unlikely

Despite the rumors floating around in Israel's financial media, we believe a go-private deal for Israeli deep-sea container carrier ZIM is unlikely...

Tracking Traffic

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