China Macroeconomics & Academia

Christopher Balding

Macroeconomics

Despite continued insistence by the PBOC that there is “no basis” for continued depreciation, the RMB continues to depreciate.  What makes this encouragement by the PBOC so notable is how skeptical the market is from the opening bell.Today the PBOC set the daily fix at 6.6594 but almost immediately dropped 100 pips to 6.6694.  The CNH in offshore activity opened approximately 300 points lower than the official fix.  In other words, the market is clearly signaling the direction it wants the RMB…

Despite continued insistence by the PBOC that there is “no basis” for continued depreciation, the RMB continues to depreciate.  What makes this encouragement by the PBOC so notable is how skeptical the market is from the opening bell.Today the PBOC set the daily fix at 6.6594 but almost immediately dropped 100 pips to 6.6694.  The CNH in offshore activity opened approximately 300 points lower than the official fix.  In other words, the market is clearly signaling the direction it wants the RMB…

The RMB Under Pressure and Good Trade Options

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst, Real Estate Foresight

Robert Ciemniak

Founder-CEO & Chief Analyst

Real Estate Foresight

Since 2012, REF has been helping investors with market research, project due diligence, and strategy development. This has ranged from detailed assessments and estimates on distressed developers' project portfolios to market due diligence on specific projects to macro-level questions linked to demand for commodities. The unique combination of the housing markets and developer data from data partner China Index Academy in Beijing, primary research, and technology-powered alternative data collection from public sources result in a valuable content set used in REF analytics and reports.

Predictive Analytics for China Property

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS released this morning (detailed data update attached). This compares with 10.3% in May, and June was the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year price growth. Shenzhen recorded the strongest year-on-year increase of 52%, though decelerating vs previous month. On a sequential month-on-month basis, prices rose fastest in Nanjing and Xiamen. Of the 100 major…

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS released this morning (detailed data update attached). This compares with 10.3% in May, and June was the 11th consecutive month of year-on-year price growth. Shenzhen recorded the strongest year-on-year increase of 52%, though decelerating vs previous month. On a sequential month-on-month basis, prices rose fastest in Nanjing and Xiamen. Of the 100 major…

China Property Data Update - House Prices Rise 11.2% Y/Y In June Vs 10.3% In May

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for April 2016.

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor Area (GFA) sales volume growth,  3-month sequential price growth and 3-month volume growth, with latest data for April 2016.

CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities in China - June 2016

The PBOC has set the RMB fix significantly lower at 6.6375/$ which is the biggest one day change in the RMB since August 11.  This is a decidedly unexpected shift and the markets seem to be placing significant pressure on the RMB.  There are a number of key points about today’s fix to consider.First, the PBOC could have very plausibly set the RMB at or around the previous close but it decided to fix even lower than the previous close.  This can only be interpreted as, at least for today, a…

The PBOC has set the RMB fix significantly lower at 6.6375/$ which is the biggest one day change in the RMB since August 11.  This is a decidedly unexpected shift and the markets seem to be placing significant pressure on the RMB.  There are a number of key points about today’s fix to consider.First, the PBOC could have very plausibly set the RMB at or around the previous close but it decided to fix even lower than the previous close.  This can only be interpreted as, at least for today, a…

Largest Decline in RMB Fix Since August 11

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil.  The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move during the 2008 global financial crisis.  Leaving aside the short term (ir)rationality of such violent swings of the GBP due to a political event with no near or middle term shift in economic and financial policy, the overall impact will be important in determining the direction of the RMB and how the PBOC moves forward.Last week we wrote that the we…

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil.  The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move during the 2008 global financial crisis.  Leaving aside the short term (ir)rationality of such violent swings of the GBP due to a political event with no near or middle term shift in economic and financial policy, the overall impact will be important in determining the direction of the RMB and how the PBOC moves forward.Last week we wrote that the we…

The RMB After Brexit: What Can We Expect Today

China

Harbin Bank is a Chinese city-based commercial bank offering a range of financial products and services, including corporate banking (deposits, loans, settlement) and retail banking (personal loans, credit cards, wealth management). It also engages in interbank financial business. The bank was founded in February 1997 and is headquartered in Harbin, China.

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Harbin Bank (6138 HK)

The RMB Under Pressure and Good Trade Options

Despite continued insistence by the PBOC that there is “no basis” for continued depreciation, the RMB continues to depreciate. What makes this...

Christopher Balding

China Property Data Update - House Prices Rise 11.2% Y/Y In June Vs 10.3% In May

New data shows that in June average house prices in 100 major cities rose by 11.2% year-on-year, according to the latest data from SouFun-CREIS...

Robert Ciemniak

CityScreener(TM) Ranking of Housing Markets In 54 Cities in China - June 2016

We rank the housing markets in 54 major cities in China on four metrics: 12-month house price growth, 12-month rolling year-on-year Gross Floor...

Robert Ciemniak

Largest Decline in RMB Fix Since August 11

The PBOC has set the RMB fix significantly lower at 6.6375/$ which is the biggest one day change in the RMB since August 11. This is a decidedly...

Christopher Balding

The RMB After Brexit: What Can We Expect Today

The Brexit vote has thrown global markets into turmoil. The GBP/USD peaked at 1.50 before dropping below 1.35 for daily move twice the worst move...

Christopher Balding

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