Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

Equity Bottom-Up

Most Chinese banks have yet to announce their full year 2015 results. They are yet to come. The focus will have to be on credit quality. We know from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) measures that they are incredibly concerned with the pace of economic growth and bank health in particular. They removed the LDR cap. They got rid of the one child policy. They devalued the currency. They lowered reserve requirements.  And we have seen some capital controls. It should come as no surprise that Ping…

Most Chinese banks have yet to announce their full year 2015 results. They are yet to come. The focus will have to be on credit quality. We know from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) measures that they are incredibly concerned with the pace of economic growth and bank health in particular. They removed the LDR cap. They got rid of the one child policy. They devalued the currency. They lowered reserve requirements.  And we have seen some capital controls. It should come as no surprise that Ping…

Ping An Bank with 100% Higher Impairments

<ul><li>We tend to focus on loan risk as the most critical for banks. </li><li>And this is generally correct across most of Asia.  Even in Japan it is the correct way to consider impairment risk, where most other assets for Japan’s banks are Japanese Government Bonds.</li><li>But in China, beware.  </li><li>There are plenty of loan-like risks classified as investments. We start with a look at Harbin Bank.</li></ul>

We tend to focus on loan risk as the most critical for banks. And this is generally correct across most of Asia.  Even in Japan it is the correct way to consider impairment risk, where most other assets for Japan’s banks are Japanese Government Bonds.But in China, beware.  There are plenty of loan-like risks classified as investments. We start with a look at Harbin Bank.

Loans Are Not the Only Asset Risk for China Banks

Often it is the smaller, less known banks that flare up first in a banking crises or an NPL cycle.In China, it may be no different.We can analyze ad nauseum the large banks that most focus on. But the risk is that we miss the big picture; what is happening beneath the surface.What is clear is the China economy is in trouble. The PBOC is cutting rates and lowering reserve requirements. That&rsquo;s a rare, desperate combination. New data on exports only reinforces the economy&rsquo;s weakness.In this note we examine the reaction of&nbsp;some of China's Mid-Tier banks - The Canary in the Coal Mine ?More below the fold.....

Often it is the smaller, less known banks that flare up first in a banking crises or an NPL cycle.In China, it may be no different.We can analyze ad nauseum the large banks that most focus on. But the risk is that we miss the big picture; what is happening beneath the surface.What is clear is the China economy is in trouble. The PBOC is cutting rates and lowering reserve requirements. That&rsquo;s a rare, desperate combination. New data on exports only reinforces the economy&rsquo;s weakness.In this note we examine the reaction of&nbsp;some of China's Mid-Tier banks - The Canary in the Coal Mine ?More below the fold.....

Fringe Banks in China are Telling Us Something

China

Harbin Bank is a Chinese city-based commercial bank offering a range of financial products and services, including corporate banking (deposits, loans, settlement) and retail banking (personal loans, credit cards, wealth management). It also engages in interbank financial business. The bank was founded in February 1997 and is headquartered in Harbin, China.

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Harbin Bank (6138 HK)

Ping An Bank with 100% Higher Impairments

Most Chinese banks have yet to announce their full year 2015 results. They are yet to come. The focus will have to be on credit quality. We know...

Daniel Tabbush

Loans Are Not the Only Asset Risk for China Banks

We tend to focus on loan risk as the most critical for banks. And this is generally correct across most of Asia. Even in Japan it is the correct...

Daniel Tabbush

Fringe Banks in China are Telling Us Something

Often it is the smaller, less known banks that flare up first in a banking crises or an NPL cycle.In China, it may be no different.We can analyze...

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)