HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric Corporation (1072 HK)</a> (DEC) has been rallying on the back of its hydrogen energy angle and the pumped storage story. Given the company's experience and leadership in hydro generating equipment, we think it is well positioned to capture the gigantic market opportunity from the government's push to increase pumped storage capacity in the country by potentially a CAGR of 16% between 2020 and 2035. </p><p>DEC's edges are its expertise and technical competence - it has completed complicated projects like the world's largest pumped storage (Fengning, Hebei), highest operating water heads in China (Changlongshan, Zhejiang) and largest single unit size of generation (Xianju, Zhejiang). Currently, it has pipeline in Fujian, Xinjiang, Chongqing and Henan among others. Despite the recent spike in share price, valuations are still not too demanding at 12.7x PER for FY21 and 11.4x for FY22. We even see likeliness for earnings upgrade after 1H21 result announcement set for 27-Aug.</p>

Dongfang Electric Corporation (1072 HK) (DEC) has been rallying on the back of its hydrogen energy angle and the pumped storage story. Given the company's experience and leadership in hydro generating equipment, we think it is well positioned to capture the gigantic market opportunity from the government's push to increase pumped storage capacity in the country by potentially a CAGR of 16% between 2020 and 2035. DEC's edges are its expertise and technical competence - it has completed complicated projects like the world's largest pumped storage (Fengning, Hebei), highest operating water heads in China (Changlongshan, Zhejiang) and largest single unit size of generation (Xianju, Zhejiang). Currently, it has pipeline in Fujian, Xinjiang, Chongqing and Henan among others. Despite the recent spike in share price, valuations are still not too demanding at 12.7x PER for FY21 and 11.4x for FY22. We even see likeliness for earnings upgrade after 1H21 result announcement set for 27-Aug.

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Pumped Additionally by Pumped Storage Story

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dongfang-electric-corporation-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1251:1" rel="noopener">Dongfang Electric (1072 HK)</a> reached another record year with net profit surging 24.2% in FY23. Favourable product mix has benefited gross margin which expanded 0.8pp YoY.</li>
<li>Record new orders of Rmb86.5bn (+31.9% YoY) have been signed and there is a recovery in momentum in 4Q23. Its end-FY23 backlog should be enough to cover 3.1x FY24F revenue.</li>
<li>DEC is well-positioned to capture the demand for hydrogen energy and power storage. With 19.3% 3-year earnings CAGR, its 5.1x PER and 8.2% dividend yield are attractive.</li>
</ul>



Dongfang Electric (1072 HK) reached another record year with net profit surging 24.2% in FY23. Favourable product mix has benefited gross margin which expanded 0.8pp YoY.
Record new orders of Rmb86.5bn (+31.9% YoY) have been signed and there is a recovery in momentum in 4Q23. Its end-FY23 backlog should be enough to cover 3.1x FY24F revenue.
DEC is well-positioned to capture the demand for hydrogen energy and power storage. With 19.3% 3-year earnings CAGR, its 5.1x PER and 8.2% dividend yield are attractive.


Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Good Profit, Record Orders

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  </li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) has despatched the offer document, and the H Share HK$7.50 offer is open. The H Shareholders class vote is on 18 April.  
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
The de-rating of peers and ongoing US investigation favours meeting the 90% threshold. However, the dire minority AGM/EGM participation rates suggest that retail apathy may derail the offer. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cimc-vehicles-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28012:1" rel="noopener">CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK)</a> announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.</li>
<li>The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  </li>
<li>Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. </li>
</ul>



CIMC Vehicle Group Co Ltd (1839 HK) announced the H Share buyback offer, excluding CIMC’s shares, is at HK$7.50, a 16.5% premium to the undisturbed price. The offer is final.
The key condition is approval by at least 75% of independent H Shareholders (&lt;10% of all independent H Shareholders rejection) along with a 90% minimum acceptance condition.  
Excluding the irrevocables, the 90% threshold requires an independent H Shareholder acceptance rate of 77.7%, which could be challenging due to a light offer. Risk/reward unfavourable. 


CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

Research from Asian Century Stocks, Asian Century Stocks

Michael Fritzell

Research from Asian Century Stocks

Providing financial journalism in the Asia-Pacific

Asian Century Stocks

Asian Century Stocks is a newsletter providing financial journalism for companies and stocks in the Asia-Pacific. 
The Asian Century Stocks logotype “百” stands for “one hundred” or a “century”. The economic centre of gravity is moving towards Asia. Yet most global investors are missing out.

Forensic Accounting

<ul>
<li>Perhaps the most important factor for any investment in Asia is assessing corporate governance.</li>
<li>There are few books on the subject, making it difficult to navigate.</li>
<li>I was thrilled to read Chinhwee Tan and Tom Robinson’s Asian Financial Statement Analysis.</li>
</ul>


Perhaps the most important factor for any investment in Asia is assessing corporate governance.
There are few books on the subject, making it difficult to navigate.
I was thrilled to read Chinhwee Tan and Tom Robinson’s Asian Financial Statement Analysis.


China

Harbin Electric Company Limited manufactures a comprehensive range of electric power generation equipment including thermal power generator sets, boilers, steam and hydro turbine and turbine generator sets.  The Company also provides power station engineering services and manufactures ancillary equipment for power stations as well as AC/DC motor and other products.

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Harbin Electric Co Ltd H (1133 HK)

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Pumped Additionally by Pumped Storage Story

Dongfang Electric has interesting angles of being a play on China's hydrogen energy and pumped storage development push. Despite recent rally, the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Good Profit, Record Orders

Dongfang Electric reports record profits and new orders in FY23, positioning well for growth in hydrogen energy and power storage. Order backlog...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

The 90% minimum acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer and poor minority AGM/EGM participation rates. Risk/reward...

Arun George

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

Fraud in Asia

Perhaps the most important factor for any investment in Asia is assessing corporate governance. There are few books on the subject, making it...

Asian Century Stocks

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Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Pumped Additionally by Pumped Storage Story

Dongfang Electric has interesting angles of being a play on China's hydrogen energy and pumped storage development push. Despite recent rally, the...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Dongfang Electric (1072 HK): Good Profit, Record Orders

​Dongfang Electric reports record profits and new orders in FY23, positioning well for growth in hydrogen energy and power storage. Order backlog...

Osbert Tang, CFA

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Vote on 18 April as Uncertainty Lingers on the 90% Acceptance Threshold

The 90% minimum acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer and poor minority AGM/EGM participation rates. Risk/reward...

Arun George

CIMC Vehicles (1839 HK): Min Acceptance Condition a Risk for the Final HK$7.50 Offer

The 90% min acceptance condition is a key risk in the context of a light offer. Risk/reward is unfavourable as the downside (9.9% to undisturbed...

Arun George

Fraud in Asia

Perhaps the most important factor for any investment in Asia is assessing corporate governance. There are few books on the subject, making it...

Asian Century Stocks

Dongfang Electric reports record profits and new orders in FY23, positioning well for growth in hydrogen energy and power storage. Order backlog...