Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Index Rebal Trades & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Index Rebalance

Coca-Cola Europacific Partners / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.</li>
<li>We see up to four M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.</li>
<li>Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance. </li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for the F100 and F250 indices in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
We see up to four M&amp;A-related intra-review changes in the run up to the March 2025 review.
Our latest estimates suggest there could be one regular change for the F100 index and one change for the F250 index during the March 2025 rebalance. 


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Event-Driven

CK Infrastructure Holdings / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ck-infrastructure-holdings-l" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:163:1" rel="noopener">CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK)</a> has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. </li>
<li>The right trade is to buy <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jtower-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31042:1" rel="noopener">JTower (4485 JP)</a> below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.</li>
</ul>


The Aussie Tax-Loss Selling Baskets worked very well on the sell side from 30 April through end-June 2024. What now?  Unwind.

CK Infrastructure Holdings (1038 HK) has now submitted an application for a secondary listing, not a dual-primary listing, on the London stock exchange. Admission expected on the 19th August. 
The right trade is to buy JTower (4485 JP) below terms. The really right trade is to already be an owner. IF you're an arbitrageur, you know what to do.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The Board of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hargreaves-lansdown-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21971:1" rel="noopener">Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/ LN)</a> and the CVC consortium finally agreed on the terms proposed in June (1,110p cash consideration + 30p dividend). Premium is a decent 54%.</li>
<li>The non-binding indications and irrevocable commitments from the founders representing 25.5%, create a strong foundation for reaching the 75% shareholder approval needed. I set my TP at 1,100p.</li>
<li>Taking the closing share price on 13 August, gross spread (to the Cash Offer of 1,140p) is  c.3.6% and the annualised return is c.7.4%. Long.</li>
</ul>


The Board of Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/ LN) and the CVC consortium finally agreed on the terms proposed in June (1,110p cash consideration + 30p dividend). Premium is a decent 54%.
The non-binding indications and irrevocable commitments from the founders representing 25.5%, create a strong foundation for reaching the 75% shareholder approval needed. I set my TP at 1,100p.
Taking the closing share price on 13 August, gross spread (to the Cash Offer of 1,140p) is  c.3.6% and the annualised return is c.7.4%. Long.


CVC Consortium/Hargreaves Lansdown: Recommended Final Offer

<ul>
<li>The private equity consortium (CVC, Nordic Capital, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) has upped the possible offer to 1,140p/share in cash, including 30p final dividend, with a rollover equity alternative.</li>
<li>The offer implied valuation of 17.2x NTM forward P/E and dividend yield of 4.25% are historically low for HL. An offer in line with peer's multiples would imply 1,326p.</li>
<li>The rollover equity alternative appears to be intended to give founders a means of sharing in HL's future success. Gross spread is 0.5%.</li>
</ul>


The private equity consortium (CVC, Nordic Capital, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) has upped the possible offer to 1,140p/share in cash, including 30p final dividend, with a rollover equity alternative.
The offer implied valuation of 17.2x NTM forward P/E and dividend yield of 4.25% are historically low for HL. An offer in line with peer's multiples would imply 1,326p.
The rollover equity alternative appears to be intended to give founders a means of sharing in HL's future success. Gross spread is 0.5%.


CVC Consortium/Hargreaves Lansdown: Cheap Possible Offer

Alpha Group International  / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The rankings for the F100/250 June 2024 index rebalance event will be decided based on the full market cap rankings at the close of trading today (4th June 2024).</li>
<li>Since there have been a couple of intra-review index changes and some ranking changes due to price movements, we have decided to update our expectations for the June 2024 review.</li>
<li>We currently see 2 changes for the F100 index and 3 separate changes for the F250 index. However, the rankings can still change if prices move sharply today.</li>
</ul>


The rankings for the F100/250 June 2024 index rebalance event will be decided based on the full market cap rankings at the close of trading today (4th June 2024).
Since there have been a couple of intra-review index changes and some ranking changes due to price movements, we have decided to update our expectations for the June 2024 review.
We currently see 2 changes for the F100 index and 3 separate changes for the F250 index. However, the rankings can still change if prices move sharply today.


Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Jun 24: Last Day of Trading Before Rankings; Many Possibilities

United Kingdom

Hargreaves Lansdown PLC provides investment management services. The Company offers its services in stock brokerage, pension fund management, financial planning, and asset and wealth management. Hargreaves Lansdown serves investors in the United Kingdom.

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Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/ LN)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

There are multiple possibilities of intra-review index changes for the F100/250 family in 1Q CY2025. It might be a good idea to revisit this insight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

CVC Consortium/Hargreaves Lansdown: Recommended Final Offer

The Board of Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/ LN) and the CVC consortium finally agreed on the terms proposed in June (1,110p cash consideration + 30p...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CVC Consortium/Hargreaves Lansdown: Cheap Possible Offer

The private equity consortium (CVC, Nordic Capital, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) has upped the possible offer to 1,140p/share in cash,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Jun 24: Last Day of Trading Before Rankings; Many Possibilities

Only one of the three F250 expected ADDs and two of the three F250 expected DELs are high-conviction names. The others are close to the border and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/F250 Mar 25: Mega Addition for Coke & Multiple Intra-Review Changes Likely

There are multiple possibilities of intra-review index changes for the F100/250 family in 1Q CY2025. It might be a good idea to revisit this insight.

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Last Week in Event SPACE: Aussie Tax Loss Basket, CK Infra, JTower, Porsche

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

CVC Consortium/Hargreaves Lansdown: Recommended Final Offer

The Board of Hargreaves Lansdown (HL/ LN) and the CVC consortium finally agreed on the terms proposed in June (1,110p cash consideration + 30p...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

CVC Consortium/Hargreaves Lansdown: Cheap Possible Offer

The private equity consortium (CVC, Nordic Capital, and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority) has upped the possible offer to 1,140p/share in cash,...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/​​​250 Jun 24: Last Day of Trading Before Rankings; Many Possibilities

Only one of the three F250 expected ADDs and two of the three F250 expected DELs are high-conviction names. The others are close to the border and...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Quiddity Leaderboard F100/250 Jun 24: Last Day of Trading Before Rankings; Many Possibilities