Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>MBK has made a legally binding bid for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>. Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.</li>
<li>Given the share price decline, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nufarm-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1128:1" rel="noopener">Nufarm (NUF AU)</a>'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dic-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7343:1" rel="noopener">Dic Corp (4631 JP)</a> is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.</li>
</ul>


MBK has made a legally binding bid for Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP). Stay long if you still hold or buy the dip. Buy at under ¥11,200.
Given the share price decline, Nufarm (NUF AU)'s board is under pressure to do "something". Nufarm would be better off selling its entire operations, as opposed to offloading divisions.

Dic Corp (4631 JP) is (also) under pressure from activist Oasis Management. Buy large dips rather than chase another day of a big gain.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

<ul>
<li>I tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.</li>
<li>Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Offers for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mac-copper-limited-6dcb19d0-2c56-496c-817a-5d64e48b3c5d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45237:1" rel="noopener">MAC Copper (MAC AU)</a>and  <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sbi-sumishin-net-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34572:1" rel="noopener">SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP)</a>. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/taiyo-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15154:1" rel="noopener">Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP)</a> possibly in the crosshairs. </li>
<li>Key updates/news took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/welcia-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20895:1" rel="noopener">Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)</a>/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tsuruha-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9536:1" rel="noopener">Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/amara-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2692:1" rel="noopener">Amara Holdings (AMA SP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 44 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
Two new deal were discussed on Smartkarma this week: Offers for MAC Copper (MAC AU)and  SBI Sumishin Net Bank (7163 JP). Taiyo Holdings (4626 JP) possibly in the crosshairs. 
Key updates/news took place on: HKBN Ltd (1310 HK), Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP), Welcia Holdings (3141 JP)/Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP), and Amara Holdings (AMA SP). 


(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara

<ul>
<li>Dual-Listed<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mac-copper-limited-6dcb19d0-2c56-496c-817a-5d64e48b3c5d" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45237:1" rel="noopener"> MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US)</a>, a NSW copper miner, has <a href="https://announcements.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20250527/pdf/06k4vk25mz8lm4.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">entered</a> into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Johannesburg-based <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/harmony-gold-mining-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25115:1" rel="noopener">Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ)</a>.</li>
<li>Harmony is offering A$18.93/share (US$12.25/share), a 20.7% premium to last close, or a A$1.6bn/US$1.03bn value. The A$ consideration pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate. The Offer requires FIRB signing off. </li>
<li>The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from shareholders holding 20.1% of shares out. Implementation is October/November. This may need more gruel.</li>
</ul>


Dual-Listed MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US), a NSW copper miner, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Johannesburg-based Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ).
Harmony is offering A$18.93/share (US$12.25/share), a 20.7% premium to last close, or a A$1.6bn/US$1.03bn value. The A$ consideration pivots off the USD/AUD exchange rate. The Offer requires FIRB signing off. 
The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards, and also has the backing from shareholders holding 20.1% of shares out. Implementation is October/November. This may need more gruel.


MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): Harmony Makes A Move

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.</li>
<li>But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.</li>
<li>Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.</li>
</ul>


Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass and 2/27/25 Int'l Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity.
But that all changed last week (4/1/25 Compass and 4/3/25 Int'l Compass), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments.
Despite the 90-day pause, we remain cautious and we continue to favor defensives as long as the S&amp;P 500 and ACWI-US are below their 200-day MAs.


Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among EM managers remains muted.</li>
<li>AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold Mining have both experienced consistent gains in ownership since their 2023 lows.</li>
<li>Oaktree, Overstone and Vontobel EM strategies hold some of the larger portfolio positions in select Gold stocks.</li>
</ul>


Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among EM managers remains muted.
AngloGold Ashanti and Harmony Gold Mining have both experienced consistent gains in ownership since their 2023 lows.
Oaktree, Overstone and Vontobel EM strategies hold some of the larger portfolio positions in select Gold stocks.


South Africa

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited is a gold-mining and exploration company which produces gold from its operations in South Africa and Papua New Guinea.

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Harmony Gold Mining (HAR SJ)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Makino Milling Machine, Nufarm, Dic Corp, HKBN

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: MAC Copper, SBI Sumishin Net Bank, Taiyo, HKBN, Welcia/Tsuruha, Amara

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

MAC Copper (MAC AU/MTAL US): Harmony Makes A Move

Optically, it's not a knock-out offer. But ~20% of the register's support is still 20%. And this is a large deal. No apparent FIRB concerns This...

David Blennerhassett

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level

Still Favor Defensives Until Market Dynamics Improve; EURO $STOXX 50 Testing Crucial 5000 Level; Watch for Resistance at $105-$117.69 on $ACWI. Buy...

Vermilion Research

Gold Miners: Off the Radar

Despite gold hitting record highs this month, ownership of key gold mining stocks among active emerging markets managers remains muted.

Steven Holden

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