Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector, Investory

Devi Subhakesan

Equity Analyst - Asia Consumer Sector

ASIA CONSUMER: INSIGHTS AND INVESTMENT IDEAS

Investory

Investory is a Singapore-based boutique independent equity research firm founded in January 2017 with a primary focus on consumption themes across Asia-Pacific.

We aim to generate investible ideas based on consumption trends and outlook. We screen our ideas on several parameters - product potential, long-term growth and management commitment being the most critical.  We follow a fundamental analysis approach in our stock selection process and are not restricted by market cap.

We aspire to grow into a leading source of unbiased research, free of conflict of interest, for investors yearning for independent and disciplined analysis. 

We also undertake bespoke research mandates to support our Institutional clients’ investment needs.

Our team comprises of professionals with extensive experience in the Asian equity markets, in areas ranging from research, servicing institutional clients and investment management.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jollibee-foods-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:987:1" rel="noopener">Jollibee Foods (JFC PM)</a> dives into Korea's coffee war zone with a new acquisition. But with expensive funding, selling cheap coffee isn't so cool anymore.</li>
<li>Tiger Balm, the beloved pain relief elixir, is under valued in its holding-company, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haw-par-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9898:1" rel="noopener">HawPar Corp</a> . In an aging world full of aches, it's time to let Tiger Balm roar!</li>
</ul>


Welcome to Consumer Tales &amp; Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.

Jollibee Foods (JFC PM) dives into Korea's coffee war zone with a new acquisition. But with expensive funding, selling cheap coffee isn't so cool anymore.
Tiger Balm, the beloved pain relief elixir, is under valued in its holding-company, HawPar Corp . In an aging world full of aches, it's time to let Tiger Balm roar!


Consumer Tales & Trends #July 1-10: Korea Coffee War, Crazy Rich Asians & More

Asia Economist and CEO, Centennial Asia Advisors

Manu Bhaskaran

Asia Economist and CEO

Centennial Asia Advisors

At Centennial Asia Advisors, we tell it like it is. We have no vested interests, no need for a China wall, and no reason to skew our outlook any other way. With over 30 years experience covering Asia’s political economy, you can be sure our conclusions and analyses are based on the unadulterated facts. Through years of fine-tuning our research methodologies, we deliver a quality of macroeconomic analysis few other houses can match.

Centennial Asia Advisors is an independent research and advisory firm that works with governments, multilateral institutions, financial firms and leading MNCs.

Economic Policy and Strategic Advisors

Macroeconomics

The death of <a href="http://www.rememberingleekuanyew.sg/" target="_blank">Lee Kuan Yew</a>&nbsp;takes away from Singapore the presence of the most important personality in its modern history and is a moment of deep sadness for all Singaporeans including those of us at <a href="http://www.centennialasia.com/" target="_blank">Centennial Asia</a>.His extraordinary leadership at crucial moments in Singapore&rsquo;s history - the traumatic merger and then separation with Malaysia, the confrontation with Indonesia, ethnic tensions, and countless economic challenges and crises - made what is Singapore today. His record of decisiveness and pragmatism and his success in creating strong institutions and a durable national consensus that unites the country mark him out from other leaders of developing nations.<blockquote>Some analysts have suggested that his passing could weaken Singapore, perhaps even create some political instability. The evidence suggests otherwise.</blockquote>

The death of Lee Kuan Yew&nbsp;takes away from Singapore the presence of the most important personality in its modern history and is a moment of deep sadness for all Singaporeans including those of us at Centennial Asia.His extraordinary leadership at crucial moments in Singapore&rsquo;s history - the traumatic merger and then separation with Malaysia, the confrontation with Indonesia, ethnic tensions, and countless economic challenges and crises - made what is Singapore today. His record of decisiveness and pragmatism and his success in creating strong institutions and a durable national consensus that unites the country mark him out from other leaders of developing nations.Some analysts have suggested that his passing could weaken Singapore, perhaps even create some political instability. The evidence suggests otherwise.

Singapore: Lee Kuan Yew's enduring legacy of strong institutions will see Singapore through

Founder of Innovation Research & Advisory firm, Lightbulb Capital

Daniel Liebau

Founder of Innovation Research & Advisory firm

Lightbulb Capital

Companies across different industries are building Innovation centers&nbsp; in Singapore, Hong Kong and other cities across Asia and the rest of the world.&nbsp; Some examples include <a target="_blank" href="http://aia-accelerator.com/">AIA</a>, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.3m.com.hk/intl/hk/english/in_hongkong/innovation_center.html">3M</a>, <a target="_blank" href="http://www.mis-asia.com/tech/industries/metlife-announces-futurelab-in-singapore/">MetLife</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.edb.gov.sg/content/edb/en/news-and-events/news/2014-news/p-and-g-opens-250-million-innovation-centre.html">P&amp;G</a> amongst others.&nbsp;While this is a good step in the right direction there are 4 specific points that are worth considering to gauge if the initiative has a chance to create some optionality for future long term growth. Therefore, from an investment perspective it makes sense to evaluate Innovation initiatives in target companies with those points in mind.

Companies across different industries are building Innovation centers&nbsp; in Singapore, Hong Kong and other cities across Asia and the rest of the world.&nbsp;  Some examples include AIA, 3M, MetLife and P&amp;G amongst others.&nbsp;While this is a good step in the right direction there are 4 specific points that are worth considering to gauge if the initiative has a chance to create some optionality for future long term growth. Therefore, from an investment perspective it makes sense to evaluate Innovation initiatives in target companies with those points in mind. 

Can Innovation labs be assessed to pick stocks for your portfolio?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.</li>
<li>For Asia Pac ex Japan, we forecast 266 changes (adds, deletes, migrations) for the index. Of those, 63 stocks could have over US$20m to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The forecast passive buys have outperformed the headlines indices in all major markets and there could be some profit-taking following announcement of the changes.</li>
</ul>


The review period for the March rebalance of this global index ended 31 December, the changes should be announced on 20 February and implemented at the close on 20 March.
For Asia Pac ex Japan, we forecast 266 changes (adds, deletes, migrations) for the index. Of those, 63 stocks could have over US$20m to trade from passive trackers.
The forecast passive buys have outperformed the headlines indices in all major markets and there could be some profit-taking following announcement of the changes.


Asia Pac: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March as Adds Outperform Bigly

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13631:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet Group (9449 JP)</a> needs to sell shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gmo-internet-inc-919fd60b-ad2a-4c5f-b333-167a849b67b0" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9029:1" rel="noopener">GMO Internet (4784 JP)</a> to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. </li>
<li>Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/haw-par-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9898:1" rel="noopener">Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)</a>/ <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/united-overseas-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:113:1" rel="noopener">UOB (UOB SP)</a> - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) needs to sell shares in GMO Internet (4784 JP) to achieve a "float" of 35% by 31 December 2026. Recent filings show they are selling. 
Preceding my comments on the GMO group - and Haw Par Corp (HPAR SP)/ UOB (UOB SP) - are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


StubWorld: Stay Short On GMO Internet (4784 JP); Haw Par Now Even More Stretched

Singapore

Haw Par Corporation Limited is a Singaporean multinational group involved in healthcare, investments, leisure, and property sectors. Its core business includes manufacturing and distributing topical analgesic products under the globally recognized Tiger Balm and Kwan Loong brands. The company was incorporated in 1969 and is based in Singapore.

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Haw Par Corporation (HPAR SP)

Consumer Tales & Trends #July 1-10: Korea Coffee War, Crazy Rich Asians & More

Consumer Tales & Trends, your weekly roundup of the latest corporate developments, investment reports and sector events in the consumer industry.

Devi Subhakesan

Singapore: Lee Kuan Yew's enduring legacy of strong institutions will see Singapore through

The death of Lee Kuan Yew takes away from Singapore the presence of the most important personality in its modern history and is a moment of deep...

Manu Bhaskaran

Can Innovation labs be assessed to pick stocks for your portfolio?

Companies across different industries are building Innovation centers in Singapore, Hong Kong and other cities across Asia and the rest of the...

Daniel Liebau

Asia Pac: (Forecast) Global Index Changes in March as Adds Outperform Bigly

There will be over 250 changes in AP for a global index in March. The large adds have outperformed their country indices over the last few months...

Brian Freitas

StubWorld: Stay Short On GMO Internet (4784 JP); Haw Par Now Even More Stretched

GMO Internet (9449 JP) needs to sell GMO Internet (4784), and it is doing so. If you can take down borrow on 4784, stay short. It could get bumpy....

David Blennerhassett

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