Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-ocean-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12531:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS)</a>. That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. </li>
<li>Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.</li>
<li>There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.</li>
</ul>


Korea Development Bank is looking to sell 13m shares of Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS). That is US$740m at the top end of the marketed range and 4x ADV. 
Following the sale, Korea Development Bank will still own over 15% of the company and that will be an overhang for the stock. Plus the stock appears wildly overvalued.
There will be limited buying from passive trackers at the time of the placement with bigger passive flows coming through in June and August.


Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD461.3bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,277mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Biologics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 11th which has an aggregated holding worth USD461.3bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD3,277mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Biologics.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD465.8bn.</li>
<li>We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,455mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.</li>
<li>We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in foreign holdings of KRX stocks as of Apr 4th which has an aggregated holding worth USD465.8bn.
We estimate that foreign flows to be outflows of USD2,455mln. We tabulate the league table for top changes by value for 1W/4W/1Y and top stocks held by foreign institutions.
We highlight changes of foreign holdings in SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics.


KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 4th): SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics

<ul>
<li>Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.</li>
<li>Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX)</a> to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX)</a> ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.</li>
</ul>


Short notional ticked higher on the KOSPI and KOSDAQ markets and is expected to continue increasing over the next few months.
Since the resumption of short selling, foreign holdings of Korean equities have increased from 29.26% to 29.3%.
The Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX) to KOSDAQ 150 Index (KOSDQ150 INDEX) ratio has stayed stable over the last 3 trading days.


Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>March 5 price action overshot passive impact. Theme-trade momentum, one-way institutional flows, and ETF rebalancing (~10% turnover) juiced the move—Hanwha Ocean -5.41%, Samsung Heavy +5.34%, HD KSOE +6.58%.</li>
<li>June’s rebalance gets spicier—another ETF, ARIRANG K-Defense ETF (449450 KS), also runs the same 20% reversion on June 13, doubling the flow impact and setting up amplified price action.</li>
<li>Key 20% reversion hits: Hanwha Ocean (SOL Shipbuilding) &amp; Hanwha Aerospace (PLUS K-Defense). ~5%p passive outflows (~0.1x DTV) expected, with Hanwha Ocean facing double impact from both ETFs.</li>
</ul>


March 5 price action overshot passive impact. Theme-trade momentum, one-way institutional flows, and ETF rebalancing (~10% turnover) juiced the move—Hanwha Ocean -5.41%, Samsung Heavy +5.34%, HD KSOE +6.58%.
June’s rebalance gets spicier—another ETF, ARIRANG K-Defense ETF (449450 KS), also runs the same 20% reversion on June 13, doubling the flow impact and setting up amplified price action.
Key 20% reversion hits: Hanwha Ocean (SOL Shipbuilding) &amp; Hanwha Aerospace (PLUS K-Defense). ~5%p passive outflows (~0.1x DTV) expected, with Hanwha Ocean facing double impact from both ETFs.


Hunting for Outsized Moves in Off-The-Radar Korean Sector ETFs: SOL Shipbuilding & PLUS K-Defense

South Korea

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co., Ltd. operates as a shipbuilding and offshore company. The Company provides industrial plant engineering, special and naval shipbuilding, marine engine and machinery, industrial machinery and energy services. HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering markets its products worldwide.

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)

HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering

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HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering (009540 KS)

Hanwha Ocean (042660 KS) Placement: Index Implications; Stock Appears Wildly Overvalued

KDB is looking to sell 13m shares to raise up to US$740m. They will still own 15.25% and that is an overhang. The stock is overvalued compared to...

Brian Freitas

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 11th): SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motor,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

KRX Foreign Holding Weekly (Apr 4th): SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics

We analyzed KRX foreign holding data for the past week and highlighted foreign holding changes in SK Hynix, Hyundai Motor, Samsung Electronics.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Korea Short Selling: What Happened on Day 1?

Short notional has increased as has foreign ownership of Korean equities. Stock selection will become increasingly important. The forecast index...

Brian Freitas

Hunting for Outsized Moves in Off-The-Radar Korean Sector ETFs: SOL Shipbuilding & PLUS K-Defense

This post dives into hunting for outsized moves in off-the-radar Korean sector ETFs: SOL Shipbuilding and PLUS K-Defense.

Sanghyun Park

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)